Making very sure your JJ is beat ... [Archive]

jskills

05-03-2005, 12:52 AM

Villan is TAG. I felt the flop raise and lead on the turn was the only way to be sure he was for real. Chip spewing? Other line suggestions welcomed.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

NickRegino

05-03-2005, 12:56 AM

lol that'll make you know, although i dont like your 3-bet on the flop.

jskills

05-03-2005, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
lol that'll make you know, although i dont like your 3-bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you do? Call the flop raise and check fold the turn?

sweetjazz

05-03-2005, 01:00 AM

What Q hands is he limping UTG+1? Maybe KQo, QJs (though you have two of the Js, so this is less likely) and QTs. Also, 66 and 44 area distinct possibilities. OTOH, he's likely to isolate raise you with 77-99 here (and A6s, A4s), and maybe even 55.

After his flop raise makes the pot heads-up, you can see a showdown for 2.5 BB. Instead, you invested 2 BB and didn't see a showdown, even though the turn card is pretty good for you, as it lowers the likelihood he has a Q. (Though, obviously, his turn raise indicates that he is quite likely to have a Q.)

You (1) forfeited your chance to spike a J on the river, and (2) folded the best hand against a medium PP some of the time.

I think it would have been worth it to invest the extra 0.5 BB to see a showdown. In addition, your willingness to play back at him may cause him to fold 77 or 88, whereas you'd rather he kept betting those hands given that he only has 2 outs.

When it's a close decision as to which line to take, I generally prefer to err on the side of seeing the showdown.

Shillx

05-03-2005, 01:02 AM

No way he has a queen when he raises the turn. Any TAG who raises the turn with trips isn't a TAG. He might have a full house but certainly not trips. He might also be bluffing the queen so you would have to read him for 66 or 44 to make this fold imo.

Brad

Edit - Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands. It would be correct for him to goto war with a full house since you "should" give non-stop action with a hand like AQ. In reality you wouldn't but he has to think that you would.

sweetjazz

05-03-2005, 01:04 AM

TAGs come in many shapes, sizes, and flavors, but the good ones are raising with a lot of hands that you beat in that spot. OTOH, you're probably losing to more than 50% of the hands they are raising. That's an indicating that calling down might be the best line.

I think it's simply too expensive to get the information you need to be "sure" that your opponent has a Q.

jskills

05-03-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What Q hands is he limping UTG+1? Maybe KQo, QJs (though you have two of the Js, so this is less likely) and QTs. Also, 66 and 44 area distinct possibilities. OTOH, he's likely to isolate raise you with 77-99 here (and A6s, A4s), and maybe even 55.

After his flop raise makes the pot heads-up, you can see a showdown for 2.5 BB. Instead, you invested 2 BB and didn't see a showdown, even though the turn card is pretty good for you, as it lowers the likelihood he has a Q. (Though, obviously, his turn raise indicates that he is quite likely to have a Q.)

You (1) forfeited your chance to spike a J on the river, and (2) folded the best hand against a medium PP some of the time.

I think it would have been worth it to invest the extra 0.5 BB to see a showdown. In addition, your willingness to play back at him may cause him to fold 77 or 88, whereas you'd rather he kept betting those hands given that he only has 2 outs.

When it's a close decision as to which line to take, I generally prefer to err on the side of seeing the showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some very good points. The way I looked at it, 3-betting the flop and leading the turn (with the option to fold to a raise) costs us 1.5 BB whereas check / calling the last 2 streets costs us 2 BB. Your point about seeing a river and showdown do seem to outweigh the .5 BB, but I did believe there might be a possibility villan would fold on the turn, unless of course he had a Q or a boat. I can't see him raising in that spot unless he did.

jskills

05-03-2005, 01:10 AM

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I think it's simply too expensive to get the information you need to be "sure" that your opponent has a Q.

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I cannot argue with this logic - I certainly would not use this line with any kind of regularity.

DMBFan23

05-03-2005, 01:11 AM

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Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips.

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<---- idiot

sweetjazz

05-03-2005, 01:16 AM

Yeah, I do agree that your line may get a worse hand to fold. The problem, though, is that you want most worse hands to stay in. A hand like A6s has 5 outs, and you're pretty close to indifferent whether he chases or folds. But a hand like 77 has 2 outs, and you want him to keep betting.

I think the river is a bit tricky if you take the call-down line, because checking may allow him to check behind with a smaller PP like 88. OTOH, if you bet into him on the river, he'll almost surely raise with trips or a full boat, because he'll recognize that your line is weak and you almost surely don't have a Q yourself.

You're in a tough spot, because being out of position makes this hand much harder.

jskills

05-03-2005, 09:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

<---- idiot

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too I think ...

27offsooot

05-03-2005, 10:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villan is TAG. I felt the flop raise and lead on the turn was the only way to be sure he was for real. Chip spewing? Other line suggestions welcomed.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

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I'm an idiot too. I would raise this hand with trips on the turn. If the person I was playing was good, I would also be raising this turn with my mid pp and taking a free SD.

meep_42

05-03-2005, 11:39 AM

For 1 SB more you get to see another card and a showdown.

-d

jskills

05-03-2005, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For 1 SB more you get to see another card and a showdown.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. That's what I get for "experimenting". Thanks.

meep_42

05-03-2005, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Word. That's what I get for "experimenting". Thanks.

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Also useful to consider are why you're getting raised on the flop -- is it a free card play -- or a made hand?

On this board, I find the earlier very unlikely. How aggressive is the opponent? Would he do this with 88? Maybe. What purpose does the 3-bet serve when it's now head's up?

The turn bet -- is UTG ever not going to showdown here, now? If he has a Q, he's going to showdown. If he has 88-TT, he's going to showdown, as he doesn't believe you for the Q now.

Once the 2nd Q comes off, i'm headed for a cheap showdown.

-d

Azhrarn

05-03-2005, 04:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way hero played it, it looks like he has AA or KK. If I had trip queens, I'd raise the turn and expect to be paid off. I don't think most people are folding those hands here.

LImitPlayer

05-03-2005, 04:58 PM

Why wouldn't a TAG raise this hand on the turn?

Your point about this move making other hands fold makes no sense as it is HU at this point. There are no other hands out there.

A TAG isn't going to smooth call this hand on the turn with no else left in the hand.

ErrantNight

05-03-2005, 05:15 PM

i think that's overstating it a bit. whose to say a TAG doesn't have an incorrect read on our hero? or even a correct read?

why must a TAG only be raising this river, if he suspects he might be able to go to war on the turn?

meep_42

05-03-2005, 05:18 PM

I'm not at all following your response to me.

-d

Shillx

05-03-2005, 05:40 PM

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Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way hero played it, it looks like he has AA or KK. If I had trip queens, I'd raise the turn and expect to be paid off. I don't think most people are folding those hands here.

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Betting the turn with AA or KK is a mistake if you are the hero (don't do it!). The villian's most obvious hand is Qx, so betting here will usually just cost us. Also, the queen is a great card for him to bluff after we check the turn (it is a scare card). Let the villian throw his money away if he just has a 2 outer. If the villian doesn't have a queen, the board pair helps the hero has now all other paired hands just have 2 outs against us. We don't really need to get aggressive in this spot.

Brad

Yobz

05-03-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way he has a queen when he raises the turn. Any TAG who raises the turn with trips isn't a TAG. He might have a full house but certainly not trips. He might also be bluffing the queen so you would have to read him for 66 or 44 to make this fold imo.

Brad

Edit - Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands. It would be correct for him to goto war with a full house since you "should" give non-stop action with a hand like AQ. In reality you wouldn't but he has to think that you would.

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Lets say villian has AQ here and just calls the turn. Hero bets into villian on the river, very easy raise and call 3-bet for villian, right? (assuming blank river)

Shillx

05-03-2005, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way he has a queen when he raises the turn. Any TAG who raises the turn with trips isn't a TAG. He might have a full house but certainly not trips. He might also be bluffing the queen so you would have to read him for 66 or 44 to make this fold imo.

Brad

Edit - Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands. It would be correct for him to goto war with a full house since you "should" give non-stop action with a hand like AQ. In reality you wouldn't but he has to think that you would.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets say villian has AQ here and just calls the turn. Hero bets into villian on the river, very easy raise and call 3-bet for villian, right? (assuming blank river)

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Yup. Waiting to raise until the river is clearly the best play if the villian has AQ. If the hero decides to 3-bet the river, the villian should cap AQ if the board doesn't contain a king or a 3-flush.

private joker

05-03-2005, 06:17 PM

On one hand I like to check this turn, call a bet, and check-call the river unimproved. But on the other hand, if I check, what worse hand is he going to bet? If he has 88 (thinking his hand was best on the flop and raising to isolate the PFR who just has AK or something), he will be delighted to get a cheap showdown of his own. If he has a Q, he will bet it obviously. If he has 44 and 66, he will obviously bet. I don't think he's going to bluff at this pot after Hero 3-bets the flop. But I also can't think of a good reason to bet the turn. Tough hand.

Nate tha' Great

05-03-2005, 06:24 PM

You beat all middle pair hands and something like 77-99 are pretty likely here.

Calling down once he raises the flop is fine. He'll continue to bet something like 88 for value/hand protection here. Re-raising is okay too against an aggressive opponent, but it should be looked at as a value raise and not an information raise.

When he raises that turn, I think it's close between calling both the turn and river and just calling the turn and folding if he bets again on the river (foiling a free showdown play). I'm not folding straight-away though. He'll, I'll also spike a J sometimes.

Nate tha' Great

05-03-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way he has a queen when he raises the turn. Any TAG who raises the turn with trips isn't a TAG. He might have a full house but certainly not trips. He might also be bluffing the queen so you would have to read him for 66 or 44 to make this fold imo.

Brad

Edit - Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands. It would be correct for him to goto war with a full house since you "should" give non-stop action with a hand like AQ. In reality you wouldn't but he has to think that you would.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes I'd just raise that turn with a queen out of laziness. Other times I'd raise because my opponent is a donk or views me as a donk and I think I'll get more bets in that way.

Put another way, if a good player would never raise that turn with a queen, it's probably a good time to raise that turn with a queen.

Nate tha' Great

05-03-2005, 06:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way hero played it, it looks like he has AA or KK. If I had trip queens, I'd raise the turn and expect to be paid off. I don't think most people are folding those hands here.

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Betting the turn with AA or KK is a mistake if you are the hero (don't do it!). The villian's most obvious hand is Qx, so betting here will usually just cost us. Also, the queen is a great card for him to bluff after we check the turn (it is a scare card). Let the villian throw his money away if he just has a 2 outer. If the villian doesn't have a queen, the board pair helps the hero has now all other paired hands just have 2 outs against us. We don't really need to get aggressive in this spot.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, it's really hard to bluff a good player off his hand when he checks it to you, since the check usually means "bluff if you want, I'm seeing a showdown". You're more likely to induce a bluff by betting into him.

Shillx

05-03-2005, 06:32 PM

Yeah you are exactly right. When you begin thinking on a certain level, poker becomes a game of "ok [censored] it, I'm just calling him down." But this is just a spot where I would suspect people would be quick to raise the turn with trips. It is much like when you hold Ax and you think your villian has a big pocket pair. If an ace comes on the turn, the best play is to call the turn and then raise the river.