Do you make this call?

[Bigwig]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2145)
Button (t1395)
SB (t5060)
Hero (t1400)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1395 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t1095.

Flop: (t2940) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2940) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2940) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2940

[Sam T.]

Unless you can put the villain on a two (or better yet two of 'em), I'm folding here. Yes, I'm desperate, but with the big stack to my right, I've still got folding equity if I lay this down.

If the big stack is being a bully (as he should), I may call here, just because he may not give me the chance to open push.

Tough one.

Sam

[sweet72]

You are getting desperate, but since someone has already gone allin on you. You either have to know they don't have a pair or fold.

[EMcWilliams]

You are out of the blinds after this hand, and I believe with low PP on the bubble, either you are the first to push or you have to fold. Calling an all in where best case scenerio you are racing....I'd wait for a better spot.

[Bigwig]

I'm not necessarily surprised to see the folds outnumbering the calls. But nobody who has replied yet has mentioned the pot odds I'm getting. I'm certainly a favorite over the pusher's hand range. The question isn't chipEV, it's dollar EV. What equity odds do you need to call this push? I figured I was getting barely enough.

[shejk]

I figured this might be a call, and even voted such. But after some calculations I come to the conclusion that it would be a -ev call (since you need 66.7% to make it +ev). Now the question is: Might this still be the best alternative? I mean, you might not get the opportunity to steal, and even if you do, it is quite possible you will get called with a lot.

In conclusion, I say yes, I would call.

EDIT: Very interesting post to think about... I like it, I like it a lot.

[curtains]

It's close. I ran it on eastbays program and the answer basically depends on the buttons pushing range here. Most of the time the numbers favor a call, but some players dont push with hands like K4o there on the button. If the button is a known good sit and go player, it's probably a clear call. I think it's close enough so that it'd depend on how I felt about the way everyone was playing, but I could be wrong.

[XChamp]

I voted no, since that is my default here.

However, it really depends on your opponent. If he does not steal blinds frequently it is a clear fold. If he has moved all in the past one or two times then I am calling.

[Voltron87]

Depends on how often the big stacks will call me. The better the other players are (Button, since he will push with less and big stacks because they know I push with garbage at this stage) are the more likely I am to call.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
If the button is a known good sit and go player, it's probably a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[shejk]

Am I wrong to think that one of the main points to consider here is your chance of getting a better opportunity later?

[gumpzilla]

Against a good opponent pushing there, there are two factors that might make it a good call:

1) They will probably be pushing with any two, where 33 starts to look like a pretty decent hand.

2) You don't have as much chance of the villain, who is the other relatively short stack, just letting his stack go gently. So you might need to gamble in order to get a chance at the money, and this is probably a decent spot to do it.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I wrong to think that one of the main points to consider here is your chance of getting a better opportunity later?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're not, and that played into my decision.

FYI, I'll post the results later, for fun. Obviously the results are of no relevance to the discussion.

[Voltron87]

So yeah I'm only folding this if the big stacks are really weak.

[Misfire]

Ok, I guess since this is party's blinds going up every 10 hands it makes for a pretty desperate endgame and you'd be expecting a good player to push a bunch. I normally play UB where it's every 10 minutes, so after the bubble you can realistically get more than twice as many hands in before the blinds raise (narrowing the range you can put a good player on?).

Is there anyone that would call here at party, but fold to the same player under UB's blind structure, or am I making too much of this difference?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the button is a known good sit and go player, it's probably a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

a good player will push with a wide range here on the button, whereas weaker players might play much tighter here, and sometimes even tight enough to make it a -EV call.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the button is a known good sit and go player, it's probably a clear call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

A good SNG player well have a much wider pushing range then a poor one in general. There are very few players that push enough hands on the bubble and probably less then 5 total at this level, So I'm guessing this isn't one of those people. This hand is close especially because you have much better folding equity then the other SS does in future hands because of your relative table position. If the villians push range is even close to as loose as it should be this becomes an easy call though imo.

[Voltron87]

I think this decision matters much more on the calling standards of the other two players than the pushing standards of the button.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
A good SNG player well have a much wider pushing range then a poor one in general. There are very few players that push enough hands on the bubble and probably less then 5 total at this level

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, maybe this is something I need to work on. What range of hands should a good player be pushing short-stacked in this position? What about good players w/ mid-high stacks? Per my earlier question, does the blind-raising structure (# hands vs time) change this range?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this decision matters much more on the calling standards of the other two players than the pushing standards of the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't agree with you there, both are a factor for sure but your stack is so small after folding that the calling standards of the other players will be large no matter what since they will be getting great odds to call. The exception to this of course being a rare case where you are playing with a super tight opponent who is on your left and is so bad that they ignore pot odds.

If you had more chips though then there is more of a case to be made for giving up $EV on this call.

[gumpzilla]

Your question is too broad to give a really simple answer to. Ultimately, though, you should be capable of pushing with any two if you think the situation is correct.

What are some correct situations? If you notice that your opponents have tightened up markedly on the bubble, then it becomes profitable to push with almost anything when the blinds are large; even if you have garbage, you'll win the blinds very often, and if the blinds are an appreciable enough fraction of your stack, this more than makes up for the small fraction of the time you'll get called. If you've noticed that your opponents are tight in general, or if you've got a big stack and there are a couple of shorties left that are struggling to cash, these are great times to push with almost anything.

Position is also very important. The later you can push, the better, because you're less likely to get called just because there are fewer possibilities that somebody yet to act has a hand. In particular, if it is folded to your SB, you should just about always be making a play at the pot unless the BB is way too loose and will call you often.

A lot of times you'll need to be somewhat more selective in your pushing standards. Obviously push with your big hands, but you will frequently be more interested in holding 98s than A2o when it comes time to steal. Why is that? Many of your opponents will call with almost any ace or any pair, and you're in deep trouble against any of these hands. Having two live cards can frequently be more important in these situations than the "absolute" quality of your cards.

Google "blind stealing theorem" and look at the first link; this is an excellent article that covers most of these bases.

[nova]

I voted for a fold for a few reasons:
1. you'll be out of the blinds next hand
2. I feel it's better to be the one who makes the move and pushes than the caller.
3. wait for a similar situation where the big stack can bust him out getting you ITM

That's just my area of thinking. I couldn't feel good about that call, even if my gut told me I should.

[Voltron87]

I'm calling here the vast majority of the time, FYI.

The better all players are involved the more I call.

What I meant was that during a realtime game decision I just assume I am at a 51-49ish situation with the button and then I think is folding even an option because of the calling ranges of the bigstacks. My post was mostly a function of me assuming a 50 50 here. The better the players are the more I call.

[Nick M]

I personally call here. I'm not a ITM% person. I'm a ROI% person. By taking this coin flip I have a much greater chance of getting first, than I do if someone else busts him. I like being in the money, but 1st place money, I feel, is the most important thing. Plus there is a lot of dead chips out there. Like more then a 1/3 of my stack.

[curtains]

Are you implying that the other answers were ignoring overall ROI and trying to sneak into the money??

[Nick M]

Nope...I just gave my answer and the reason why.

[Nick M]

ohhhhh by the way where in NY are you from?

[LotsOfOuts69]

All the yes votes on this are making me feel like I can still win at this game.

If you are playing to win only, then call. But if you are playing to money first, and then to win (which is how you should be playing IMO, then this is an easy fold.

By calling you give youself 50% chance to money and 50% chance to finish 4th.

By folding, and waiting for a spot to be the agressor, you give yourself a much better chance to money.

F--- the pot odds, think about your odds to win or lose your buy-in.

If you fold this and push any 2 cards the next hand it has folded around to you, you still have fold equity, giving yourself a chance to win the blinds uncontested + the odds that your hand will win the showdown, this is MUCH higher than 50%. Not to mention someone else could make a bonehead play and bubble themselves.

I could explain more, but the main point is to CALL OFF all your chips on the bubble with a hand that domintes nothing is a horrible play IMO. This should be an easy fold.

--LoO

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you are playing to money first, and then to win (which is how you should be playing IMO, then this is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROI and ITM are not mutually exclusive concepts. Every play you make should not be to first 'get in the money.' That's horrible strategy. Horrible.

[ QUOTE ]
By calling you give youself 50% chance to money and 50% chance to finish 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, no. I'm most certainly a favorite over Button's hand range. That doesn't make it an auto-call, of course. But that assumption is flat out wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
By folding, and waiting for a spot to be the agressor, you give yourself a much better chance to money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, yes. That's why I posted the hand. I'm looking for arguments as to why.

[ QUOTE ]
F--- the pot odds, think about your odds to win or lose your buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, I've been hearing this f*** the pot odds talk a lot lately, as if the concept has little relevance. This is preposterous. Every decision you make in a SNG is pot odds and/or position based, from folding JTs UTG to raising AQs from the CO. Because you don't conciously think of this every time you make an action doesn't mean that it isn't part of the game.

[ QUOTE ]
I could explain more, but the main point is to CALL OFF all your chips on the bubble with a hand that domintes nothing is a horrible play IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, he had K3.

[Matt Walker]

I agree with curtains. Against Raptor I'll make this call all day long but not against a guy who hasn't pushed yet. Also a lot of it depends not just on the player that is pushing but the other people still left. If I'm fairly confident I can steal the blinds the next hand, I'll lay it down pretty much regardless.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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But if you are playing to money first, and then to win (which is how you should be playing IMO, then this is an easy fold.


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ROI and ITM are not mutually exclusive concepts. Every play you make should not be to first 'get in the money.' That's horrible strategy. Horrible.



[/ QUOTE ]

Playing to win on the bubble when you're tied for the shortest stack will lose you more money then you win. In this particular situation, you should be playing to get ITM, no question. I'm not saying to fold a big hand against a bigger stack, but calling with 33 is a bad play.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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By calling you give youself 50% chance to money and 50% chance to finish 4th.


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Actually, no. I'm most certainly a favorite over Button's hand range. That doesn't make it an auto-call, of course. But that assumption is flat out wrong.



[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it is right, you are a 53/47 favorite over almost any hand, and a 80/20 dog against bigger pairs, even out close enough to 50/50. In fact, if he had J-10 suited you are a 53/47 dog, same for any two suited runner overcards. Maybe for suited gappers too, I'm not going to pokertips.org to check right now, this will cancel out any chance that he pushes with a duece or 3. Evening every possibility out comes to about 50/50, or close enough.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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By folding, and waiting for a spot to be the agressor, you give yourself a much better chance to money.


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Perhaps, yes. That's why I posted the hand. I'm looking for arguments as to why.



[/ QUOTE ]

I gave you my arguments, if you push later, you have a 50% chance(or greater) that you win the blinds, plus maybe an avg of 35% of winning a showdown if you get called by a superior hand. 50% plus (0.35)*50% = 67.5% Better than your three's will ever do.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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F--- the pot odds, think about your odds to win or lose your buy-in.


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You know, I've been hearing this f*** the pot odds talk a lot lately, as if the concept has little relevance. This is preposterous. Every decision you make in a SNG is pot odds and/or position based, from folding JTs UTG to raising AQs from the CO. Because you don't conciously think of this every time you make an action doesn't mean that it isn't part of the game.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying it has nothing to do with the game, but it is not always a part of the correct SNG strategy. You can't bleed chips early in an SNG on draws, lets say 6 people limp in level 2, you're in the big blind with A2 clubs. 180 in the pot. Flop comes 2 clubs and SB makes a 125 bet, well now its 125 to call and there is 305 in the pot, great drawing odds, but this is a bad play because when your draw doesn;t hit, it is more costly than what you gain from the draw hitting. So even though you might have exact pot odds to draw, it is a poor decision if you are trying to make money in the long run.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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I could explain more, but the main point is to CALL OFF all your chips on the bubble with a hand that domintes nothing is a horrible play IMO.


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Actually, he had K3.


[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky for you this is the best hand that he could have, i guess you called and won. You can play however you want, but I know when I'm at the table there is nothing more that I want to see then some guy call an all in bet on the bubble vs a guy with the same exact stack size, I win 100% of the time.

--LoO

[pokerlaw]

yeah, you are probably a favorite, but very rarely a dominate one. I like to fold and wait...

[syka16]

But calling with 33 greatly increases your EV according to eastbay's tool: 18.8% to 32.5%. not to mention that you are a slight favorite against his range. You do have a chance to steal/win a showdown but against whom? And with T1100 winning a showdown won't get you ITM. Getting called by the large stack, which will probably happen, is much worse than calling 33 in the BB.

[Matt Walker]

[ QUOTE ]
But calling with 33 greatly increases your EV according to eastbay's tool: 18.8% to 32.5%. not to mention that you are a slight favorite against his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're using the tool wrong I think. I plugged in his push range as any two and only had the equity go from 15.2 to 17.5. Againt a more typical range of any ace, any pair, any two broadway, your share of the prize pool is 15.2 percent for folding and 15.3 for calling.

Also you need to define his range to know if you are a slight favorite like you say. If this guy is only pushing 77+ AT+ your a fairly large (60/40) underdog.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But calling with 33 greatly increases your EV according to eastbay's tool: 18.8% to 32.5%. not to mention that you are a slight favorite against his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're using the tool wrong I think. I plugged in his push range as any two and only had the equity go from 15.2 to 17.5. Againt a more typical range of any ace, any pair, any two broadway, your share of the prize pool is 15.2 percent for folding and 15.3 for calling.

Also you need to define his range to know if you are a slight favorite like you say. If this guy is only pushing 77+ AT+ your a fairly large (60/40) underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get those #s too. But I mean "$EV win". I'm defending the call against a loose raiser so I figure he's pushing any two.