Fold to a turn raise in 5/10?

[veganmav]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (12.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Js Ac (one pair, jacks).
Button has Qs Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Button wins 14.20 BB. </font>

on the turn I realize I'm probably behind, to probably KQ, and possibly also KJ, or AK, I put him on KQ so I have three outs to the ace, and 2 outs to the jack for 5 outs, the pot is offering me about 11 to 1 and with 5 outs I am about 8 to 1 so if he had KQ i have odds to call. So I call his turn raise, the river doesn't help, and now the pot is offering me 13 to 1 on a call but am I over 90% sure that I'm beat? It's hard to be that sure, so I call the river bet too, is that ok? I am also disregarding the fact that he could have AK and KJ or a set, so I guess I probably should have just folded to his raise on the turn,.. disagree?

What do you all think?

[Steve S]

I think this is an easy fold on turn...especially w/ the bb calling the raise cold. As it turns out, it looks like the bb picked up a draw, but you are behind way too often to pay 2 more bets there.

[xCEO]

I disagree that this is an easy fold (maybe my mistake). Any reads?

[veganmav]

no reads yet /images/graemlins/frown.gif this is my 2nd round at this table sorry, but I am tending to think its a fold to the turn raise

[flair1239]

This might be an error, but the way I have started thinking about turn raises.. (When I am otherwise in doubt) is this:

You are not actually getting 11-1 on the turn. You are getting 12-2 or 13-2. Reason being, is that if you know you are going to have to call on the river, you need to take that into account.

Also depending on the button, putting him just on KQ is misleading. I think you need to consider some PPs as well. So tour 5 outs probably need some discounting. It also seems BB is mildly interested in the hand as well.

So I think by facoring the fact you are probably going to call the river, that it makes this easier to fold.

That said, these situations give me fits as well. I estimate that my bad payoffs in these situaions cost me about .25-.5 BB/100.

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
This might be an error, but the way I have started thinking about turn raises.. (When I am otherwise in doubt) is this:

You are not actually getting 11-1 on the turn. You are getting 12-2 or 13-2. Reason being, is that if you know you are going to have to call on the river, you need to take that into account.

Also depending on the button, putting him just on KQ is misleading. I think you need to consider some PPs as well. So tour 5 outs probably need some discounting. It also seems BB is mildly interested in the hand as well.

So I think by facoring the fact you are probably going to call the river, that it makes this easier to fold.

That said, these situations give me fits as well. I estimate that my bad payoffs in these situaions cost me about .25-.5 BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

seems to me you're pretty right, sounds like a laydown is in line in this situation

[Liam Carver]

Without looking at the results, I would say its fair to assume you are behind here. Without a read on this opponent, it is probably not wise to overcall this...a regretful fold.

Liam

[Yads]

What about calling the turn and folding the river UI?

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
What about calling the turn and folding the river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to do that as you'd have to be over 90% sure that you are losing. Do you think you'd be that sure? to lay down a 13bet pot for just 1 more bet?

[mute]

Your five outs look good here most of the time. Even if you only had four (which I think is discounting your outs too much) you are still good enough to call.

However if you are planning on calling the river unimproved, that changes the odds quite a bit. You are now only getting 13:2. There's a twist though. Since you can't overcall or call a raise or bet from BB and there are some rivercards, that will make folding very easy, these odds are somewhat better.

I think I would fold the river, so I am calling the turn. If you are calling the river, I think it's close, but I would still call.

[Azhrarn]

A benefit of calling the turn is (a), he will check behind on the river some percentage of the time, either because he was semibluffing on the turn or he just plain wimped out, and (b), the BB will sometimes either call or bet out on the river, which makes it much easier for you to fold your hand if you didn't improve.

[veganmav]

[ QUOTE ]
A benefit of calling the turn is (a), he will check behind on the river some percentage of the time, either because he was semibluffing on the turn or he just plain wimped out, and (b), the BB will sometimes either call or bet out on the river, which makes it much easier for you to fold your hand if you didn't improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see those benefits, but does that make it strong enough to call the turn raise? I still feel that folding the turn raise is best. As he might not have KQ, and, there is still another player in the hand.

[That guy]

This situation just sucks. I think folding sucks less than paying off.

[Azhrarn]

[ QUOTE ]
I see those benefits, but does that make it strong enough to call the turn raise? I still feel that folding the turn raise is best. As he might not have KQ, and, there is still another player in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, I think the best pure line is to call the turn raise and fold the river unimproved. I'm usually suspicious of turn raises by players with position.

However, I do have trouble making the river fold sometimes. I find myself calling a lot on the river in similar situations against an unknown for informational purposes. I'm never sure whether the information is worth whatever fraction of a BB I paid for it, though.

[veganmav]

seems like no one can agree on this hand

[SeaEagle]

Reads would really be valuable here. From a pure pot odds perspective, if you have 5 outs then it's an easy call. But you need to discount your outs:
Two of your outs will put a 3rd diamond on board.
Your A's could be tainted, either by BB chasing w/ Ax (and the x is already paired) or by AK somewhere.

You'd really like to know if BB is a chaser and if Button would semi-bluff raise here with a straight or flush draw (or both). Without a read, I'd lean towards calling the turn and with the rag coming on the river, calling one bet there too.