Call an all in (or two) with AQo?

[jenium]

Any thoughts on this hand? My reasoning follows..


***** Hand History for Game 1980409823 *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11801447) - Sun May 01 00:11:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 13971 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: JEEPWJ1 (705)
Seat 2: Brewcity1212 (655)
Seat 3: ottumwagirl (800)
Seat 7: Seat11 (2560)
Seat 8: Nugzwins (1945)
Seat 10: jenium (1335)
Nugzwins posts small blind (150)
jenium posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jenium [ Ah, Qc ]
JEEPWJ1 folds.
Brewcity1212 folds.
ottumwagirl raises (800) to 800
ottumwagirl is all-In.
Seat11 calls (800)
Nugzwins folds.
jenium raises (1035) to 1335
jenium is all-In.
Seat11 folds.
Creating Main Pot with $2550 with ottumwagirl
Creating Side Pot 1 with $535 with jenium
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, 2d, Js ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2550 | Side Pot 1: 535
Board: [ 4h 2d Js 5s 4s ]
JEEPWJ1 balance 705, didn't bet (folded)
Brewcity1212 balance 655, didn't bet (folded)
ottumwagirl balance 2550, bet 800, collected 2550, net +1750 [ Ac Jh ] [ two pairs, jacks and fours -- Ac,Jh,Js,4h,4s ]
Seat11 balance 1760, lost 800 (folded)
Nugzwins balance 1795, lost 150 (folded)
jenium balance 535, bet 1335, collected 535, lost -800 [ Ah Qc ] [ a pair of fours -- Ah,Qc,Js,4h,4s ]

AQ may not be so strong after two pushers... it
was a really strange move for the big stack in middle position to call an all in for 800 and then fold for 500 more... But i did interpret his call as a sign of weakness, which is why i pushed. If the big stack had moved all in, I might have folded...or maybe it's still correct to call with such a strong hand and such large blinds? What do you guys think? Afterward, he claimed to have AJ also!

[hummusx]

I wouldn't make this move. Maybe the big stack did show weakness, but I would almost never expect him to fold for 500 more. So they you are in a 3-way pot with AQ. I can't think you are horribly far ahead of them collectively (unless they both actually have AJ, which is about the best think that could happen I think).

If you fold this and then have to fold in the SB, you still have 3xBB which probably gives you some FE. Unless the blinds are about to go up in the next 1-2 hands, I'd fold this and push one of the next couple hand when you can be first in.

[Nottom]

Seat11 is a 2+2er, maybe he can explain his action here?

[microbet]

Hmmm. Reads could be important here. Here's my attempted explanation for big stacks move:

Big stack has a medium pocket pair. He is sure it is a good call against the first push who will have a pretty large pushing range and whom he has covered.

You push after that. Big Stack may know who you, or at least who your brother is (or made the same mistake I'm making). Knowing this, he figures you have a very tight range for pushing after a push and a call and puts you on a big pair. Either that or he mis-clicked.

If you had folded and big stack won your $EV = .166
If you had folded and smaller stack won your $EV = .140
If you push, big stack calls and you win your $EV = .348
If you push, big stack folds and you win your $EV = .320
If you push, big stack folds and you lose your $EV = .0793

I don't think pretending I really know the hand ranges will make things more accurate when you fold. I think big stack thinks he has a better hand than the pusher, but not by a lot. I'm just going to guess the $EV for your folding is .155.

If you push and big stack folds, I think you are a pretty likely favorite and I put the $EV at about .23.

I think big stack folding is pretty rare here, no matter what, maybe 15%.

.15 * .23 + .85 * .348 * X = .155
X = .41 unless I screwed up

So you have to win the 3 way contest 41% of the time.

I don't think that is likely. I played around with some ranges on pokerstove and have a hard time getting you above about 39%.

If you have a good idea that big stack might fold, it would make it a better call, but that would be pretty hard to see coming.

Edit: This doesn't have anything to do with this post, but if this were a step 5 higher it would be a much better call. Your $EV winning would be over .38 and your $EV folding would be less than the .155, so you would need to win less than 37% of the time which would be much easier to come up with.

[john_]

A misfire....I hope?

[The Yugoslavian]

This indeed is a very interesting hand...

Hmmmmm. What sucks is I've played Seat11 quite a bit and am completely befuddled by his play here, /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Yeah, so if he pushed I don't like your call - mainly b/c you gain $EV by folding so to warrant the risk here you need to put your opponents on very wide ranges, which I don't think is possible. Since he called, I *guess* you have some FE here. But, frankly, to me, his call would most likely mean he has a monster and *wants* to invite action from other desperate stacks.

I don't think he could have a good enough read on you to fold after you pushed.

I await Stupid Sucker's reasoning, /images/graemlins/grin.gif. Because I have *no* idea what the hell he was trying to do here?!?!

Yugoslav
PS Perhaps he was running to and from the bathroom naked and a neighbor saw, shrieked at the top of his/her lungs and he was so flustered he missclicked, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[curtains]

Whoever this 2+2'er is, he needs to learn a few things about poker. Calling for 800 and folding for 500 more is ridiculously bad poker.

[stupidsucker]

let me finish my set, and I'll be right with you.

[stupidsucker]

without going into detail I stand by my move.

My hand was good enough to call the all in. I liked my hand vs his push range A lot. When the BB pushed, I figured monster or at the very least I was dominated. 500chips is 500 chips. I let it go, and I will do it again.

As for the AQ push, I think it was too aggressive against a cold call from the Big stack. almost alll the time you will get called, and your odds are better off just sitting tight.

[curtains]

Folding for the 500 is simply dreadful, to stand by and defend your move is insane. There is 3000 chips in the pot and it costs you 500 to call, how can you even pretend to justify that in a $22 tournament?

[Voltron87]

whether the person who went all in after you is ahead of you is not the issue, the issue is are you so far behind 6-1 is not good enough? I can't understand this fold with any cards you would call one all in with.

[stupidsucker]

To be honest, I dont want to go into depth about it. I understand fully why many/most/perhaps everyone thinks I made a horrible mistake.

To lay it out, I had the choice to risk 500 chips to win 3k.

Why is my lay down bad? I need a 17% chance to win ALL the chips to make it worth it. I felt I didnt have that chance and I was in GREAT shape folding.

I felt my pot odds were bad, and I felt that my stack was much better off 500 chips richer. I will make this move again and again and again and again until I am proven that this move is as awful as you say it is.

[bones]

You would have been in better shape with 2500 chips if you feared action from players remaining behind you.

[Voltron87]

What hand will call an all in here but not another 500 chips? That makes no sense. If you are going to fold for another 500 don't call the 800 here!

[ilya]

if he had a hand like KQo.

Some of y'all might really want to wait the 5 minutes it takes to run some PokerStove simulations before mouthing off.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
But i did interpret his call as a sign of weakness, which is why i pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That surprised me.

If I have AA here as the Bigstack I would have cold called as well.. same with AK, QQ, JJ..

I wont explain any further.

Stop being so ABC, and try to understand reasons behind it. You people gush over a post gigabite makes on playing poker and making judgment calls. But when you see someone do something out of the norm like me you discount it.

I made a read, I used my insticnt. I felt I was in too deep, and I had room to get out,

The real questionable part is if my call was right to begin with. I find it funny, that the argument is if my laydown was right..

[curtains]

Stop being so ABC?? What kind of random nonsense argument is that. Your fold AFTER calling 800 chips is flat out terrible, and none of your abstract and instinctual reasoning is going to change that.

[curtains]

Also you make some random argument without even doing any math. AJ vs AK+AQ is well over 17% chance to win, same for AJ vs KK+QQ and so on, and of course its quite reasonable to have the original raiser dominated, and to even be up against hands like A8 and TT.

[stupidsucker]

I dont want to be in some kind of argument. Nor do I feel the need to explain my actions any further.

Only I know what my cards were. Only myself and 9 other people were there. I made choices that were read/experiance based, and I stick by them.

I dont feel the need to discuss until someone yields. I dont expect you(or anyone else)to yield and I know I wont be unless I decide on my own through my own experiances to make it so.

I have not made any recomendation for anyone else to play like me. I have made it clear from the begining that I dont always agree with traditional play.

[curtains]

Also for the record I dont recall ever gushing over any gigabet posts or any other posts for that matter.

[gumpzilla]

Nobody in this thread has commented on the main pot/side pot considerations; that is, it's not so simple as saying that he's calling 500 to win 3000. Let's say that jenium would raise with AQ, AK, 99+ in this situation. You have about 30% equity in the side pot. Now say you put the other player on the same range. Then you're looking at just under 20% equity in the main pot. I'm trying to reconstruct numbers, so this may be wrong, but in this situation it is about +200 in chip EV (400 from main, 300 from side) to call here. The existence of the side pot indicates more strongly that a call is probably in order.

EDIT: Somebody can mess around with ICM if they like, but I'm not sure about the best way to handle ICM calculations with multiple pots.

[curtains]

Well of course I didnt bring it up because even without that factor its a painfully easy call.

[microbet]

Anyone else want to comment on the OP's question?

[curtains]

Against the typical random idiot $22 players I would move allin preflop or would call preflop and push the flop.

[adanthar]

That's because it's questionable whether your call was right but not at all questionable how much the laydown sucked.

Dude, you are a much much better player than that.

[gumpzilla]

Painfully easy without considering the side pot? I'm not sure about that. I'll neglect the side pot in what follows.

I think we all agree that AQ is likely to be in the bottom of jenium's range here to make this kind of move over the big stack. So let's look at a couple of ranges for the initial raiser:

Tight range for initial raise:
AA-77, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo, KQo : 31.9%
AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo : 50.3%
AJo : 17.7%

This is marginally better than breakeven chip EV, and he'll still be well ahead of two short stacks (and thus well positioned for ITM) if he folds, whereas if he calls the next five hundred he's substantially closer to their level.

Random hand for original raiser:
Hand 1: 21.7937 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 23.7027 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { random }
Hand 3: 54.5036 % [ 00.53 00.01 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }

This is markedly better, but still not more than a +100 or so chip EV play. Ranges in between - any pair, any broadway was the other one I looked at - will give you smaller returns.

Even if we include TT in the range for jenium, I still don't think this is a no-brainer, IF you're only looking at the main pot.

[curtains]

Yeah its close because you are creating ideal ranges for all opponents to make it as close as possible. Anything can look close if you calculate it like that. Also I have no idea if Seat11 even knew who jenium was, thus meaning she should get a lot less respect than a random PP idiot.

[curtains]

Anyway someone else mentioned up above, I just didn't harp on it much because of the pure absurdity of cold calling an allin for 800 and then folding for 500 more.

[microbet]

I don't know, maybe some of my assumptions are off, but here are calling ranges that I think would make a preflop push very slightly +$EV:

Initial pusher: any ace, king or queen, any PP, basically J7,T7,97,87 +

Big stack caller: any Ace, KT+, QJ+, any PP.

Just to give an idea of how wide the ranges would have to be.

Do you think these ranges aren't wide enough or do you get into the pot for other considerations?

As far as being a $22 and people being idiots goes, some make mistakes getting into pots and some by staying out of them. I would certainly put the initial pusher on a stronger hand in a $22 than in a $215. As for the caller it would probably be a similar range. In the $22 they might overvalue their hand and in the $215 they might know the first pusher could go with any two. Of course, there are a lot of posts from $215s that aren't too flattering to some of the villians.

[stupidsucker]

Perhaps not such an idiotic move?

I challenge anyone to come up with REASONABLE ranges for the 2 other people in question, and show me that my laydown was severly -$EV. I am not saying that the math may show me + $EV, but we all know that the ICM doesnt take into consideration all aspects of blind stealing,

My laydown was solid. Prove me wrong, dont just say I am.

And I really hate doing this, but I am weak. My hand was AJ.

[gumpzilla]

Yes, random holdings for the initial raiser in the second case I considered is an ideal range.

What do you think is a good range for him to put jenium on? Presumably by now he can have some sense of whether or not she's competent; given the game that she plays, what do you think you would think she's pushing with here?

If I'm in this game and she has struck me as competent, I will assume she realizes that she probably has minimal folding equity and wants to get in anyway. I also assume competent players realize they are better off waiting and getting in first. This makes me think that she's going to be on a tight range.

You can argue that it's impossible to tell if somebody is good on the basis of 1 SNG, but I think it's usually not that hard to tell if somebody is a raging moron.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah its close because you are creating ideal ranges for all opponents to make it as close as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Using any sensible ranges will tell you the same thing. My laydown was close, and I love my chances with 1760 in chips, I hate my chances with 1225.

Either my stock moves up or down here. I have serveral good posters telling me I am an idiot. Please prove me wrong.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps not such an idiotic move?

I challenge anyone to come up with REASONABLE ranges for the 2 other people in question, and show me that my laydown was severly -$EV. I am not saying that the math may show me + $EV, but we all know that the ICM doesnt take into consideration all aspects of blind stealing,

My laydown was solid. Prove me wrong, dont just say I am.

And I really hate doing this, but I am weak. My hand was AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Putting the fold aside for the moment. I don't understand why you didn't push with AJ in the first place.

As the for the original question, I couldn't imagine that seat11 would ever fold here, so I'd stop-and-go here rather than straight push with AQ.

[curtains]

You are the one who said you didnt feel youd have a 17% chance to win the whole pot, thus you folded, which is completely absurd with AJo based on a reasonable range of hands for both opponents, not to mention that you can win the sidepot a good portion of the time against something like KK. (AJo was the hand we assumed you had since the beginning of the thread, since you announced it at the table and the OP mentioned as such).

You have already made one clear and lazy mathematical mistake yet you are asking us to come up with mathematical proof? It's like asking me to get out a calculator to add 3+3 for you. Ok I suppose it's not unreasonable to ask, but it's just too obviously +chip EV, and you still have FE even if you call and lose the entire pot.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps not such an idiotic move?

I challenge anyone to come up with REASONABLE ranges for the 2 other people in question, and show me that my laydown was severly -$EV. I am not saying that the math may show me + $EV, but we all know that the ICM doesnt take into consideration all aspects of blind stealing,

My laydown was solid. Prove me wrong, dont just say I am.

And I really hate doing this, but I am weak. My hand was AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Putting the fold aside for the moment. I don't understand why you didn't push with AJ in the first place.

As the for the original question, I couldn't imagine that seat11 would ever fold here, so I'd stop-and-go here rather than straight push with AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes of course I also hate calling when compared to pushing.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway someone else mentioned up above, I just didn't harp on it much because of the pure absurdity of cold calling an allin for 800 and then folding for 500 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see it anywhere; the only place I found that even hints at it in my quick perusal was a post by stupidsucker himself. I don't think microbet's lengthy analysis mentioned it.

[ QUOTE ]

Also you make some random argument without even doing any math. AJ vs AK+AQ is well over 17% chance to win, same for AJ vs KK+QQ and so on, and of course its quite reasonable to have the original raiser dominated, and to even be up against hands like A8 and TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

So let's see. You're taking him to task for not using math, and then throwing up very fragmentary analysis that doesn't even take the main pot/side pot - a pretty important concern here - into account? I guess this is cool when you're on the side of Truth, Justice and Poker Godliness.

[microbet]

Just for the sake of reference here is the most reasonable range I could come up with that puts Seat11 < 17% to win the pot.

88+, AJ+, KQ initial allin
JJ+, AK follow-up allin

[curtains]

My math all supports calling even without a sidepot being involved! Using logic that would mean that calling is even more obvious when there is a sidepot. The sidepot concept will ALWAYS favor us, thus if it seems to be in my favor without those concerns, then it makes the decision pretty clear.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the sake of reference here is the most reasonable range I could come up with that puts Seat11 < 17% to win the pot.

88+, AJ+, KQ initial allin
JJ+, AK follow-up allin

[/ QUOTE ]


And of course this is an unreasonably tight range, but I think you know that.

[gumpzilla]

What math? You supplied us with a couple of isolated cases. Neglecting the side pot leads this to be a surprisingly close call if one assumes that your sister is on a tight range, which I suspect she is. I'm also not sure that 1200 and 1700 are functionally similar enough in these circumstances to make a marginally +chip EV call necessarily attractive. While I'm not trying to say a fold is correct (EDIT: And I also agree with you and Van Sexton that pushing rather than calling the 800 in the first place probably would have been better), I don't think it's as entirely brain-dead as it first appears.

Perhaps you missed my earlier question, so I'll restate it. If you're an observant player and watching your sister, what range of hands do you put her on to make this move?

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just for the sake of reference here is the most reasonable range I could come up with that puts Seat11 < 17% to win the pot.

88+, AJ+, KQ initial allin
JJ+, AK follow-up allin

[/ QUOTE ]


And of course this is an unreasonably tight range, but I think you know that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of what curtains has posted in this thread, as well as that last comment.

Putting in 800 and planning to fold for 500 more is a terrible line.

[microbet]

Yes. I do agree. If the original raiser was so tight that folding to the reraise could be reasonable, then AJ wasn't a good call in the first place.

Still, I don't think the original raiser and then the call are generally loose enough to make the AQ playable.

[curtains]

AA-TT (maybe 99) and AK-AQ, but only because I know her. For players that have been tight all tourney in a $22, that doesn't mean they will fold and like AJ ,ATs or 77+88 here, as I've seen plenty of amazing calls late in a sit and go from people whom I thought were very tight.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
What math?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am also curious. I see some rough figures.



You will clearly see that my $$ EV for folding is fine, I gain hardly anything by calling. PLus factor in the idea that i feel I am better then everyone at the table. I am a much much bigger force by making the laydown opposed to relying on the small small chance I have to take down 100% of this pot.

Frankly I have wasted too much time on this already. It is -EV for me to argue it, cause I could be playing poker.

So here is the set up...

Pusher range (22+,A2+) I dont care what range you use, any realistic range shows me a clear call/push on this.

BB range(AA-JJ, AQ+) I was extremly surprised to see AQ.

My hand AJ

Now show me the $$ money for the stacks if
I call and win all the chips
I call and win the main pot only
I call and win the sidepot only
I call and lose BB wins
I call and lose CO wins main BB wins side
or
I fold and BB wins
I fold and CO wins

I left out the splits, you can add them if you think it will change much.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Putting in 800 and planning to fold for 500 more is a terrible line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone seems so willing to say this, but no one will prove it .

[microbet]

I worked out a range for both parties that makes it an ok call and then fold. I'll post when I can. You are probably in the best position to decide what ranges are good as you were not only there, but you play a lot more $22s than anyone else here, I think.

edit: nevermind, I can't do it. I had a big stupid IM conference and now my kids want to go to bed, which tonight happens to mean camping in the back yard. Won't have time tomorrow probably. Basically it was Jenium has AA or KK only and the first allin goes to like A8+ or something and some, but not all PPs.

[p0t_Commit3d]

As for the OPs AQ

PUSH is fine in my book. Both pusher and Bigstack caller could have nothing. i say go for broke now and get a leg up. Folding puts you in such a bad spot.

As for the 800 call then fold to 500

heh. I dont need math to know you are a moron. If you were afraid of AA or KK behind you then you should have just folded and let them call. To call then fold is downright DS.

[Apathy]

you know this forums going to hell when people will actually defend play like this, I mean really, if you had 75o and misclicked to call the first bet, you should still call the second one. And just calling planning to reraise?!? I honestly don't know... *head explodes*