20k 2/4 Hands, need some advice

[Chris Dow]

Hands: 20,011
VPIP: 28.13
VPSB: 50.09
Fold SB to Steal: 76.54
Fold BB to Steal: 48.44
Att. to Steal: 45.46
Won When Saw Flop: 33.25
Went to SD: 31.06
Won at SD: 51.74
PFR: 14.22

Other Stats:

Aggression:
Flop: 1.93
Turn: 2.79
River: 2.26

First Action after PFR:
Raise: 7.13%
Bet: 56.68%
Call: 10.82%
Check: 6.92%
Check/Raise: 1.09%
Fold: 2.95%

So what's going on here? I'm thinking about moving limits. Thanks for the poll answers.


<font color="white"> Disclaimer: This post is entirely for my own enjoyment. </font>

[brazilio]

What I don't get is, I have a VP$IP hovering around 19.5 or so, and I just don't see playable hands at 2/4 or 3/6 where I'm not starting to coldcall with a lot more hands that I just don't see as playable when I'm HU or 3-way.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
What I don't get is, I have a VP$IP hovering around 19.5 or so, and I just don't see playable hands at 2/4 or 3/6 where I'm not starting to coldcall with a lot more hands that I just don't see as playable when I'm HU or 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

I just cant think that there is another 8-10 percent of hands that are playable.

[Munga30]

Honestly, I think you wouldn't be posting if you hadn't won big (note the past tense) with your truly gaudy looseness. You've probably got very good table selection and hand reading skills, but you've also been running very well. Much like sthief said at 10K (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=smallholdem&amp;Number=2197798 &amp;Forum=f3&amp;Words=sthief&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Main= 2197486&amp;Search=true&amp;where=bodysub&amp;Name=10898&amp;dater ange=1&amp;newerval=3&amp;newertype=m&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype= &amp;bodyprev=#Post2197798) maybe you're a poker pioneer, or maybe you'll fail and tighten up like so many before you. Personally, I think voluntarily tightening up at 2/4 now is cheaper than taking a beatdown at 5/10 and being forced to do so.

Good luck.

[ErrantNight]

even if your win rate was over 4/100 i'd still say hit up 3/6... 20K isn't enough hands to come close to defining your true win rate... so if you're feeling comfortable beating this game, have few questions, and have the bankroll, by all means, move up to 3/6 and re-evaluate.

i might also spend some time at 1/2 6-max, which may prove useful, if only as a primer, for dealing with the meaty 5/10 6-max games...

[ErrantNight]

oh yeah, and if you're winning with a 28 VP$IP you're either runnning well by getting lucky, or running well by getting some of the Best Hands Ever preflop... but either way you won't survive if you continue this at 2/4, let alone 3/6...

this isn't an insult, but i don't think you're the poker pioneer... i think the close to 30 vp$ip is the northwest passage of poker....

[27offsooot]

I think u should strongly consider the 6-max games. Or play less hands at full ring.

[timprov]

I think if you presume a successful 28 VPIP player, this is essentially what his stats would look like. I don't know that I'm willing to do that, but I'm not rushing to judgment against you either.

[Chris Dow]

.

[PokerBob]

These numbers are totally out of my league, as I am tight as hell and super aggressive. I hope you win, but asking me to comment on this is like asking a moron to comment on the beauty of quantum physics; I simply don't get it, so I can't appreciate it.

[Kyriefurro]

You know, this conversation is almost identical to the one that happened when you posted your 10k stats. The general consensus then was your game was too loose/aggressive and your win rate was more a matter of luck than skill. Yet instead of listening, you chose to argue with everyone who responded and the thread degenerated into an overly long post where you tried to prove that the EVERYONE else was wrong and that your game was actually sound.

Now you post again. Your stat's haven't changed, and I doubt that you're any more prepared to listen to the opinions of the forum than you were last time. If you're not going to listen, why bother asking the forum's advice?

[Emmitt2222]

Why the heck are there the most votes for "a little work left to do"?? I'm telling you right now you can't be that loose at 2/4 and be crushing this game. Some of your stats like blind play look OK, but your aggression numbers seem oddly backwards most likely caused by your looseness. I'm saying right now you are running hot. You like to get in long winded arguments and such so even if you reply to this I won't reply to you. You are too loose and even if your winrate doesnt say so, you are NOT a big winner at this game. So now its just a matter of you being too cocky to move down and evenutally reality smacking you in the face or going back down to 1/2 or .5/1 and working out these problems. Like someone else said, it may be good for you to try out 6max because then you are suppose to be much looser and that may work out best for you. I just hope you listen to constructive criticism instead of argueing with everyone when they try to help.

[timprov]

I don't really feel like I can vote, because I'm really not sure what's going on here. It's possible you're playing well and winning fairly well, it's also possible you're getting ridiculously lucky.

I'd like to know your win% and APH. I'd also like to review a few thousand of your hands, but that's probably not reasonable.

I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.

[einbert]

I've already told you my feelings about your significant numbers, I just want to reiterate something.

20k hands is nowhere near indicative of your true win rate.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make any sense at all. If he had won 5BB/100 over 200k hands, would you still think luckbox?

And if his VPIP were 80 but he was winning 2BB/100 over 5k hands (very possible), you would think he was just ridiculously skilled postflop and winning at a true 2bb/100?

Come on man, that is not logical.

[stabn]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd be much more inclined to believe this is legitimate if you're winning 1.5-2 BB/100. If it's 3+, I'd tend toward luckbox.


[/ QUOTE ]
You understand that if his VP$IP is 3+ it is more likely that he is (at least a small) winner than if it is currently 1.5-2 right?

Overall, i agree with everyone else though. He needs to bring that VP$IP down to win over the long haul.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make any sense at all. If he had won 5BB/100 over 200k hands, would you still think luckbox?

And if his VPIP were 80 but he was winning 2BB/100 over 5k hands (very possible), you would think he was just ridiculously skilled postflop and winning at a true 2bb/100?

Come on man, that is not logical.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me rephrase: Given his VPIP, if his W$WSF and W$@SD are "true", I would expect him to be winning 2BB/100 or a little less. If, however, his W$WSF and W$@SD were a result of significant luck, I would expect the winrate to be higher.

[RollingRockMike]

[ QUOTE ]
Hands: 20,011
VPIP: 28.13
VPSB: 50.09
Fold SB to Steal: 76.54
Fold BB to Steal: 48.44
Att. to Steal: 45.46
Won When Saw Flop: 33.25
Went to SD: 31.06
Won at SD: 51.74
PFR: 14.22

Other Stats:

Aggression:
Flop: 1.93
Turn: 2.79
River: 2.26

First Action after PFR:
Raise: 7.13%
Bet: 56.68%
Call: 10.82%
Check: 6.92%
Check/Raise: 1.09%
Fold: 2.95%

So what's going on here? I'm thinking about moving limits. Thanks for the poll answers.


<font color="white"> Disclaimer: This post is entirely for my own enjoyment. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
You're wasting your time if your goal is to increase your limits. It's obvious that you're not going to improve any furthur at 2/4; I think you've hit a local maxima if not a global optima. Obviously, everyone else is wrong about correct play at 2/4, but there's no reason to further prove this so. Move up.

Mike

[SmileyEH]

You are WAY too loose in the SB, and probably somewhat too loose in other positions. After that I can't tell anything else. A lot of your other stats will be dependant on your preflop mistakes so they can't really be commented on.

-SmileyEH

[chief444]

Chris,

FWIW I think you'd be better off playing tightening up a little preflop. But I find it interesting that a lot of your other numbers are pretty close to mine...specifically your BB numbers and aggression factors on each street. The biggest difference is you play more hands...probably a lot more from LP since your attempt to steal number is high...and you go to showdown less. But that seems logical.

I'm curious what your steal success numbers are. Would you mind posting them?

Chief

[pshabi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What I don't get is, I have a VP$IP hovering around 19.5 or so, and I just don't see playable hands at 2/4 or 3/6 where I'm not starting to coldcall with a lot more hands that I just don't see as playable when I'm HU or 3-way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

I just cant think that there is another 8-10 percent of hands that are playable.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Chris Dow]

Chief,

Steal Stats:
No Flop: 31.12%
Fold: 16.89%
W w/o SD: 56.74%
WSD: 26.38%
W$SD: 43.88%

Please respond with how these compare to your numbers, thanks.

[iluzion]

With that kinda VPIP stat, I'm really curious to see your BB/100.

[chief444]

Wow, for as high as your attempt to steal is I can't believe there's no flop 31.12% of the time. Of course at 20k total you probably don't have a huge sample (~500 or so?)

Here are mine:

Attempt to steal: 33.33%

no flop: 24.65%
Fold: 17.28%
W w/o SD: 50.19%
WSD%: 32.53%
W$SD: 46.48%

About 800 hands.

[Chris Dow]

I assume chief that you understand why I advocate absolutely running over opponents at these levels after these stats come out. As you can see with BOTH my preflop fold % really high and my W w/o SD % high, I am gaining a ton of money by raising almost regardless of my cards. As long as my opponents continue to let me do this there will be no stopping me or lowering the VPIP. To reiterate, when opponents will invest preflop and then fold a lot later, you can freaking pound away unmercifully.

[chief444]

I understand completely. I guess I just question whether this is the best strategy for a typically loose passive 2/4 level where from my experience you'll have to show down the best hand often. So I think you're probably running a little better than you think. As I said our aggression numbers for 2/4 are pretty similar on all streets but I just don't seem to be having as much success stealing blinds or winning without a showdown.

[mtdoak]

28.13 VPIP is just too damn high for a full ring game. I know i'm repeating everyone else's sentiments, but your range of hands is going to get you in HUGE trouble over the long haul. Over 20k 2/4 hands, i have both crushed 2/4 for 5 BB/100 and lost -.5 BB/100. Your also going to find as TAGs start to get your loose/agro flop numbers in via PT, your going to find yourself paying off ALOT of big hands because you will get trapped preflop by the good 2/4 multitablers with dominated hands. I have 100k hands in and I don't think I have an established win rate yet.

[Chris Dow]

I'm not trying to argue winrate anywhere in this thread or any other thread I make. As far as 28.13 VPIP being too high, I don't wanna argue that here either cause I am well aware of the opinion of the forum on this one. I think that the occasional times I will bluff c/r the turn, or bluff 3 bet the flop and continue with my aggression, are fairly important to play this aggressively. To simplify, if you don't read these forums and see how quickly people will tend to create monster's under the bed at these limits then you don't read very carefully. I never forget during a hand exactly how I would play if I had the monster. When I deem it appropriate, I will pretend like I do.

[Schwartzy61]

As long as your table selection remains the strength of your game go for whatever limit you want.

Just watch out when you face some opponents that figure out what you're doing.

Otherwise keep on trucking to higher limits...

[Munga30]

Hey, more power to you if it's working at 2/4. As your opponents get more observant, and as you move up, they will, they will become more tenacious against you and then what? Could you play tighter if you had to and still be confident in your game? That's what's worth learning now, IMO.

[Chris Dow]

FWIW, I've bumped up to 5/10 recently and immediately the differences are apparent. The VPIP comes down by default because pots aren't multiway, also when I say, steal from the button with a7s, and get 3 bet by the very aggressive BB, my best line seems to be going 4. Naturally the game progresses to more TAG, but you just have to adjust. I'm having even more success at 5/10 so far representing strength later in the hand, since players are thinking deeper. I've also never tried to argue that the way I play 2/4 is the way to play 5/10. I simply argue that since 2/4 players allow you to run over them, you should.