genoa_st step 5 higher -- he made a correct call

[MagnoliasFM]

Come on guys, I watched the step 5 higher tournament and after I read everyone on here's commentary you guys made it seem like genoa_st made a dumb call for all his chips with 99. The truth is, this call is +EV.

Genoa_st is a known good high-stakes SNG player and is probably better than most people who post in this forum. He doesn't care about squeaking into the money and was going for 1st place only (which is a good strategy in a 10-3-2 payout structure SNG). He had a chance to more than triple up and knock out two players, and was only in trouble if there was an overpair out against him. If neither player had an overpair to his 9's he would be around 40-50% to win, getting a huge overlay. I suck at math and a math geek would have to confirm this, but if you figure in the range of hands each player would push with, I believe the call with 99 to be +Real Money EV. Rojosox had less than 4 times the big blind and does not need an overpair to 99 to be making his push. Also, consider the fact that bikkje went all-in with AT, so that means he would've gone in with AK, AQ, AJ, and AT at least, and who knows what else.

Maybe I'm just delusional?

[microbet]

I wasn't real serious in the other post. I didn't know it was 10-3-2 payout. It seems like a bad call in a 5-3-2 payout. If Eastbay's thing had this structure and if the post had all the stacks showing I'd do some math now. I can't get away with doing it the slower way at work.

One of you guys who hasn't posted an $EV evaluation should do it.

[Voltron87]

What about the AT all in? I don't know the exact history or counts, but I know the QQ and 99 player were before him. How did he get all in with AT there?

[wuwei]

Anyone have a history with the complete table stack sizes?

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have a history with the complete table stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask and ye shall receive:

***** Hand History for Game 1968557346 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11730461) - Thu Apr 28 20:58:04 EDT 2005
Table Step Higher 5 1014153 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: bikkje (1445)
Seat 4: genoa_st (1305)
Seat 5: z079236 (2125)
Seat 6: wsopin05 (555)
Seat 7: gbertell (2190)
Seat 8: RoJoSox (730)
Seat 10: bigjonsta (1650)
bikkje posts small blind (100)
genoa_st posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
z079236 folds.
wsopin05 folds.
gbertell folds.
RoJoSox raises (730) to 730
RoJoSox is all-In.
bigjonsta folds.
bikkje raises (1345) to 1445
bikkje is all-In.
genoa_st calls (1105)
genoa_st is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $2190 with RoJoSox
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1150 with genoa_st
Creating Side Pot 2 with $140 with bikkje
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5c, Ad, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Js ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2190 | Side Pot 1: 1150 | Side Pot 2: 140
Board: [ 5c Ad 3c 4d Js ]
bikkje balance 3480, bet 1445, collected 3480, net +2035 [ Ac Ts ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ad,Js,Ts,5c ]
genoa_st balance 0, lost 1305 [ 9s 9d ] [ a pair of nines -- Ad,Js,9s,9d,5c ]
z079236 balance 2125, didn't bet (folded)
wsopin05 balance 555, didn't bet (folded)
gbertell balance 2190, didn't bet (folded)
RoJoSox balance 0, lost 730 [ Qd Qc ] [ a pair of queens -- Ad,Qd,Qc,Js,5c ]
bigjonsta balance 1650, didn't bet (folded)

[Rojosox]

I've played SEVERAL tourneys with Genoa... HE made a terrible call. He apparently does not respect my game, but that is irrelevant here. Him calling me ONLY is a good play. Him calling 2 all-ins in front is again moronic. You have anywhere between 3 overcards, to 2 possible overpairs in front. He was not in good position. Here's why : the guy who went 2nd all-in is calling me. Assuming that he has some brains it's not going to be with a pair of 2s, therefore he has ATLEAST 2 overcards, if not an overpair. Putting your entire game on the line with 9s with 2 all-ins in front may be decent for $30 game, but not a 100k game. He clearly was in deep trouble on this hand and there's no way this play is +EV AT THIS LEVEL.

-Jared

[Van Strummer]

Lets see if I can do this:
Before the hand starts genoa has a stack of 1305, but he is in the big blind so if he folds his stack will be 1105 = $EV0.115. This is when I split his blind between the two all ins.

If he calls and loses that is a $EV of 0, but if he wins the hand his stack will be:
730 + 1305*2 = 3340
bikkje will be left with 140 and Rojo will be out. This will be a $EV of 0.3052

If Rojo wins, but geno beats bikkje, genoa will be left with 1150, bikkje will have 140 left, and Rojo 2190. $EV=0.1211

If we put bikkje on AK, AQ, AJ, AT, AA, KK, QQ, JJ and TT and Rojo on AK-A6, KQ, any suited broadways and AA-55. The chance of winning is 34%
The chance of Rojo winning is 25% and if we run the 9s headsup vs. bikkjes range I get a win% of 43%

The $EV of the call is:
0.3052*0.34 + 0.1211*0.25*0.43= 0.117

Compared to 0.115 of folding pushing is actually the best move. If the real hand ranges are wider the push will become even better. On the other hand if Rojo has a tighter range as he seems to imply in his posts the push is not good.

Hope I didn't make any mistakes.

[curtains]

Rojos range will not be tight here with 700 chips and 100-200 blinds. There is no chance he would fold any of the hands you mentioned, and would be insane not to push with even more hands in this spot.

[Voltron87]

i got the hand history wrong. scratch that last post.

[TheUsher]

Is $EV based on 5/3/2 payout or 10/3/2? It would matter and make an even better case for pushing if the math you posted is correct then, right? Also, Rojo is pushing WAY more than those hands you posted which should increase this then.

[Voltron87]

everything i said was based on an innaccurate understanding of the hands. scratch it.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've played SEVERAL tourneys with Genoa... HE made a terrible call. He apparently does not respect my game, but that is irrelevant here. Him calling me ONLY is a good play. Him calling 2 all-ins in front is again moronic. You have anywhere between 3 overcards, to 2 possible overpairs in front. He was not in good position. Here's why : the guy who went 2nd all-in is calling me. Assuming that he has some brains it's not going to be with a pair of 2s, therefore he has ATLEAST 2 overcards, if not an overpair. Putting your entire game on the line with 9s with 2 all-ins in front may be decent for $30 game, but not a 100k game. He clearly was in deep trouble on this hand and there's no way this play is +EV AT THIS LEVEL.

-Jared

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok when I heard someone was against 2 all ins with A10 like this I assumed he must have pushed, or been halfway in, or something, but calling there is just terrible. Calling one all in from a typical agressive player can be good.

Rojo's play is straightforward here. I also think the player who went all in with 99 made a fine play too, if he can isolate rojo here (which he would the vast majority of the time) this play is +chips for him. But he is basically calling all in with his hand, and A10 can be a push hand but cannot beat many hands which call all in. I push A10 all the time, but I rarely call with it. And the situations where I call with it are not anyhting like this.

I think I'm repeating rojo here, but A10 does not beat two all ins, and it does not beat one call of an all in either. Pretty crappy play. Depending on how rojo has been playing the 99 play is not bad, definitely not compared to the a10 play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post isn't accurate. Delete or edit after re-reading the hand history.

[Van Strummer]

It is for 10/3/2.

[Voltron87]

my bad, will edit. thought i had it right.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
99 play= goot over rojo's all in.
AT play= bad over two all ins, with 6 BB left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rojo pushed
AT called
99 called

You have the order wrong.

Also, Rojo had been playing tighter than a thing that is tight.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
99 play= goot over rojo's all in.
AT play= bad over two all ins, with 6 BB left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rojo pushed
AT called
99 called

You have the order wrong.

Also, Rojo had been playing tighter than a thing that is tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i did get it wrong, scratch that, i have to think about it. im editing it out.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
It is for 10/3/2.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much would the $EV increase for genoa if Rojo was pushing almost any 2 in this spot? (which wouldn't be unheard of)

[Van Strummer]

If that is correct, the conclusion has to be good call. Of course that is assuming genoa read bikkje for being able to call an all-in here with a hand as bad as AT.

[curtains]

it doesnt matter how "tight" Rojo has been playing. Any idiot that can win at sit and go's will push with a very large range of hands in Rojo's seat. I play tight as hell the first 3 rounds too, to draw any conclusions from this once the blinds become 100-200 and I'm short on chips is ridiculous.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]

it doesnt matter how "tight" Rojo has been playing. Any idiot that can win at sit and go's will push with a very large range of hands in Rojo's seat. I play tight as hell the first 3 rounds too, to draw any conclusions from this once the blinds become 100-200 and I'm short on chips is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, it's not like he flashes a sign when he changes gears. I added the comment because Voltron mentioned something about how Rojo was playing.

[Rojosox]

First off , A10 called me, Genoa had 99 Voltron. You are misunderstanding...here's the order of all-in

1. ME - QQ
2. Player with AT
3. Genoa calling both with 99

I'm not going to get into the hands I push here without giving away strategies, but seriously, if I am 99 I doubt I'm calling 2 all-ins, especially from one guy who hasn't played much of anything all tourney, WITH A caller of that. I know I was 58% to triple up, just sucks for me! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

it doesnt matter how "tight" Rojo has been playing. Any idiot that can win at sit and go's will push with a very large range of hands in Rojo's seat. I play tight as hell the first 3 rounds too, to draw any conclusions from this once the blinds become 100-200 and I'm short on chips is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, it's not like he flashes a sign when he changes gears. I added the comment because Voltron mentioned something about how Rojo was playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say how Rojo had been playing. Or if I did, it was that I didn't know. I didn't watch the tourney in whole so I don't know. I screwed up all the hands /images/graemlins/blush.gif but I didn't say how Rojo was playing.

[wuwei]

If I remember correctly, the comment was "it depends on how he was playing." So I answered /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
First off , A10 called me, Genoa had 99 Voltron. You are misunderstanding...here's the order of all-in

1. ME - QQ
2. Player with AT
3. Genoa calling both with 99

I'm not going to get into the hands I push here without giving away strategies, but seriously, if I am 99 I doubt I'm calling 2 all-ins, especially from one guy who hasn't played much of anything all tourney, WITH A caller of that. I know I was 58% to triple up, just sucks for me! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

When I saw the hand I thought that it was as if he decided that 99 was a hand he would call you with and he didn't manage to alter his mindset when a third guy joined the dance.

Possibly another factor is probably the lure of possibly being the big stack at this table making him call in a spot where he shouldn't.

When the cards flipped over, I bet you were thrilled. Only five cards to beat you.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]

it doesnt matter how "tight" Rojo has been playing. Any idiot that can win at sit and go's will push with a very large range of hands in Rojo's seat. I play tight as hell the first 3 rounds too, to draw any conclusions from this once the blinds become 100-200 and I'm short on chips is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstood him curtains. wuwei may also be saying he's been playing tight in the sense of blind steals too, not just early play. If I remember correctly, Rojo folded a few times when I was expecting him to steal. This led me to believe that when Rojo pushed the next hand in CO with QQ, he had at least *something* decent enough to see a showdown. I was happy to see he had QQ though when the cards were turned up since he was a big favorite.

(just requested HH's so I don't go from memory and make an idiot of myself)

SB:

***** Hand History for Game 1968529560 *****
100/200 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11730461) - Thu Apr 28 20:53:10 EDT 2005
Table Step Higher 5 1014153 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: bikkje (1395)
Seat 4: genoa_st (1205)
Seat 5: z079236 (1825)
Seat 6: wsopin05 (805)
Seat 7: gbertell (2040)
Seat 8: RoJoSox (780)
Seat 10: bigjonsta (1950)
RoJoSox posts small blind (50)
bigjonsta posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
bikkje folds.
genoa_st folds.
z079236 folds.
wsopin05 folds.
gbertell folds.
RoJoSox folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 150
bikkje balance 1395, didn't bet (folded)
genoa_st balance 1205, didn't bet (folded)
z079236 balance 1825, didn't bet (folded)
wsopin05 balance 805, didn't bet (folded)
gbertell balance 2040, didn't bet (folded)
RoJoSox balance 730, lost 50 (folded)
bigjonsta balance 2000, bet 100, collected 150, net +50


Button:

***** Hand History for Game 1968556048 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11730461) - Thu Apr 28 20:57:50 EDT 2005
Table Step Higher 5 1014153 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: bikkje (1345)
Seat 4: genoa_st (1305)
Seat 5: z079236 (2125)
Seat 6: wsopin05 (555)
Seat 7: gbertell (2190)
Seat 8: RoJoSox (730)
Seat 10: bigjonsta (1750)
bigjonsta posts small blind (100)
bikkje posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
genoa_st folds.
z079236 folds.
wsopin05 folds.
gbertell folds.
RoJoSox folds.
bigjonsta folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 300
bikkje balance 1445, bet 200, collected 300, net +100
genoa_st balance 1305, didn't bet (folded)
z079236 balance 2125, didn't bet (folded)
wsopin05 balance 555, didn't bet (folded)
gbertell balance 2190, didn't bet (folded)
RoJoSox balance 730, didn't bet (folded)
bigjonsta balance 1650, lost 100 (folded)

[adanthar]

This call wasn't THAT bad - if genoa only beat out the SB he was basically playing for a save.

But it was still bad and based off a bad read on top of it. It was marginal to decent IF Rojo pushes with any two. The tighter his standards, the worse the call.

The AT played it worse, though, IMO.

[Van Strummer]

With Rojo pushing any two I get the following win%
genoa 35
bikkje 47
rojo 18
Which gives a $EV of the call:
0.3052*0.35 + 0.1211*0.18*0.43= 0.116
Actually a small decrease in $EV.

[Rojosox]

well, the 1st guy called, and I was like PLEASE NO KK OR AA, praying that he didnt have an overpair.....then Genoa thought for a while and I was like FU$%$#.....That Damn Ace might have cost me 100k. Wow that last sentence leaves an atrocious taste in my mouth. It was a nice consolation that Genoa went out 6 and that other moron went out 4th.

[Rojosox]

[ QUOTE ]
With Rojo pushing any two I get the following win%
genoa 35
bikkje 47
rojo 18
Which gives a $EV of the call:
0.3052*0.35 + 0.1211*0.18*0.43= 0.116
Actually a small decrease in $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know I was 57.5 % to triple up, cant ask for better than that.

[Degen]

it is not 10/3/2 as you all keep saying

it is a 15k buy-in event that pays 100k to first place...that is 6.67 buy-ins...then 2nd gets 30k and 3rd gets 20k

So the payout is 6.67/2/1.33

Andre

[FieryJustice]

It seems like most people here think the overcall with 99 was a good play. I personally think it was awful. I would not have put rojo on a big hand, besides the fact that I think he mad one all in before that hand. I would have feared the(horrible) call from bik. Genoa wasnt pot committed or anything, so I do not see why he would overcall here, besides the face that if he won, he would win the whole thing. It seems like to me at best, he was aganist 4 overcards. At worst, he had a 2 outer. I would have folded. Then again, I suck at sngs.

Jcardshark

[Van Strummer]

Of course that was what I plugged into the ICM calculator I dont think it would have accepted 1, 0,3, 0,2 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Voltron87]

ahhhh. when you said " I added the comment because Voltron mentioned something about how Rojo was playing." you meant that you thought I had said something like "Rojo is pushing any two here" or "Rojo is pushing 99 AJ+".

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
it is not 10/3/2 as you all keep saying

it is a 15k buy-in event that pays 100k to first place...that is 6.67 buy-ins...then 2nd gets 30k and 3rd gets 20k

So the payout is 6.67/2/1.33

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

please, please tell me you're joking.

[Gramps]

Even if it was a -EV chip call, it could be +$EV given the top-heavy payout structure. At least if people still get timid on the bubble allowing the big stack to steal, etc. If everyone is rightfully putting more emphasis on playing for first, then it's more -$EV since people won't play not to lose on the bubble, etc.

If the 2nd player all-in is a little loose/aggressive, with the blind overlay I'd argue 99 is +EV chip-wise. UTG had Queens, but could be pushing a very wide range of hands here.

The fact the 2nd player had AT suggests he would push a wide range, and there's a good chance genoa had notes and based his call on this in part. I think it's clearly correct (given the payout structure), unless he knows UTG is mega-tight and would rather get blinded away rather than push a reasonably wide range of hands here. Many players will push a range of hands here (in UTG's spot) that 99 is a healthy favorite against.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it is not 10/3/2 as you all keep saying

it is a 15k buy-in event that pays 100k to first place...that is 6.67 buy-ins...then 2nd gets 30k and 3rd gets 20k

So the payout is 6.67/2/1.33

Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

please, please tell me you're joking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are both wrong. The payout was 20/6/4, since you HAVE to base it in increments of $5,000 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Daliman]

The simple fact of the matter is that you will be hard-pressed to find 2 reasonable hands 99 is going to be winning vs more than 50% of the time. Unless there was severe duplication, i.e. Aq vs AK, he's losing his stack more often than not, and even at that, I'm pretty sure he loses more than 50% of the time,(I'd run this, but my normal software isn;t on this comp, and I ain;t so good with easty's tools yet.

The simple fact is 99 NEVER likes to play vs 2 players allin. It's just too vulnerable a hand. Genoa should know better, but I see him make plays like this all the time when I play with him, which makes me wonder how exactly he does well.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
ahhhh. when you said " I added the comment because Voltron mentioned something about how Rojo was playing." you meant that you thought I had said something like "Rojo is pushing any two here" or "Rojo is pushing 99 AJ+".

[/ QUOTE ]

no, no,...i thought you said I want a drink Spider.

[microbet]

the nines fold $EV = .115
the nines win $EV = .305 (as shown above and as I confirmed)
He needs to win 37.7% of the time.

Here are ranges for which it is slightly $EV, by ICM for 99 to call.

33+, Ax, Kx, Q3s+, Q6+, J8+, J6s+, T7s+, T8+, 97s+, 98+, 87, 76s

and

66+, AT+, KQ

It doesn't matter which person is which, but you would assume the looser range is the first allin.

If they are tighter it would be -$EV, looser more +$EV.

All just ICM and ignoring future FE or other considerations.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
The AT played it worse, though, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well, what a horrid call.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like most people here think the overcall with 99 was a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, I don't see people saying that. The point is that based on the payout structure, it is not in fact the worst overcall in the history of SNGs.

[ QUOTE ]
I would not have put rojo on a big hand, besides the fact that I think he mad one all in before that hand. I would have feared the(horrible) call from bik. Genoa wasnt pot committed or anything, so I do not see why he would overcall here, besides the face that if he won, he would win the whole thing. It seems like to me at best, he was aganist 4 overcards. At worst, he had a 2 outer. I would have folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all that. My jaw hit the floor when I saw AT get flipped over. If it had been me with 99, I know I could have found a better spot to take my stab at $100,000. In fact, I can only imagine how tight my ass would have been in that game - uncomfortably tight, constipated for a weak tight. I suppose that's why you won't see me in that game anytime soon.

[curtains]

Against the raisers range in this situation, wouldnt ATo be a signifigant favorite over them, not to mention the dead money in the pot and the top heavy prize structure. Im surprised everyone thinks that's a terrible call as my instincts tell me it's a pretty routine play. If anyone has the math ready to tell me that I'm wrong, bring it on.

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
The simple fact of the matter is that you will be hard-pressed to find 2 reasonable hands 99 is going to be winning vs more than 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt about that but he doesn't need to win 50% of the time for this move to make sense since he would be tripling up (especially important given the payout structure).

I break it down like this. Possible hands for the other two fall into the following categories:

1) PP lower than 9's
2) Two cards higher than 9
3) PP higher than 9's

As long as neither player has category 3 the probability of winning with 99 is close to 45%, making this an easy call. The only concern is one of the players having a category 3 hand. The initial raiser might (and did, obviously), but given the wide range of hands someone would push with in that situation I wouldn't think it likely. The real concern is the re-raiser. However, I'm guessing that if the re-raiser had AA or KK that he probably would have just called in order to entice more chips into the pot. So I see this whole question coming down to the liklihood that the re-raiser had TT, JJ or QQ. Under the circumstances, I think the re-raisers possible hands are much wider than that. On balance, I think the 99 call was probably a worthy call.

FWIW, when I first saw the play I thought it was the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Maybe that's why I don't play the $15k games.

[john_]

I thought they both played the hand horribly. But I've seen genoa_st make this type of overcall before on his blind. Also, the caller between him and Rojo was horrible so I guess he figured his call wouldn't be that wrong.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]

Against the raisers range in this situation, wouldnt ATo be a signifigant favorite over them

[/ QUOTE ]

Against any pair, any A, and any two broadway, ATo is a 55% favorite. Is that significant enough? My sense at the time was that Rojo's pushing range was slightly tighter than this, but I could certainly be wrong about that.


[ QUOTE ]
not to mention the dead money in the pot and the top heavy prize structure. Im surprised everyone thinks that's a terrible call as my instincts tell me it's a pretty routine play. If anyone has the math ready to tell me that I'm wrong, bring it on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, my quick and dirty ICM calculations say that if we assume that genoa is folding the BB, you need to win over 40% of the time for this call to be +$EV. With this structure and the blinds, I'm not surprised that the math supports calling. I didn't think it would be quite that low, though.

I see your point, but I'm not comfortable calling off over half my stack with ATo 7 handed when I feel like I still have a decent stack for stealing and I've just passed the blinds.

[curtains]

I think its an easy call. You want to turn down a clear +EV situation in a 15k buyin tournament where the blinds are very high and the prize pool is top heavy? It's not like you are playing children here that you can easily take advantage of later on.

[BeerGolfPoker]

I agree, I think this is a definite all-in for ATo. Rojo's probably going to be pushing a whole lot of hands here (as he should be). AT is gonna fair well against that wide range.

I think the payout structure makes this even an easier call. The times you win this pot you will be in very good shape to make a run at first.