What to do during a downswing

[FieryJustice]

Well, after killing the game for about 500 games I hit a pretty significant downswing. I am down 25 buyins in the $215's in the last 150 dames or so. I feel as if I have been playing well but I always seem to lose coin flips and I seem to ALWAYS lose to 3 outers. So far today, out of about 35 games, I have had 1 first. That is HORRIBLE. I guess I am wondering if this is a "normal" downswing. At what point do you move down or leave sngs all together? I still have about 100 buyins or so sitting in neteller, so I am not really in the need of money. I have considered changing my name as some people are now calling me with absolute trash, which happens to be better than the trash I push with. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

Jcardshark

[TheUsher]

...and it starts. Review your hh's, keep enough to handle the swings in your poker account, and do NOT change your play if it's been working. Don't worry about it since it's probably normal.

[ripped]

myself and my friend are doing alittle better than this but not much. My ROI in the last 3 days I am luck if it's 10% Seems the coin flips are like double headed coins and I alwasy have tails.

Advise to you is dont shy away from your game. Dont try and make things happen because you are losing. I have done this and overplayed myself and thats just -EV. Keep at it and if you are a winning sng'er it will change for you. How I break out of streaks is I keep playing. Today I played 60 sng's and yesterday 70 all 4 tabling. started HORRIBLY both days and endd up with a small profit after I was done for the day.

Stick with it and it will change.

[The Yugoslavian]

Meh...

Your not in much of a downswing yet....

But, the good news is that the true 'pro' part of your playing career has started!

This is an exciting time and I wish you luck! (and fortitude for the vicissitudes)

Yugoslav

[J-Lo]

NOrmal part of a SNG, but changing your name would be a way to go... But most would agree, at the $215's this is a very normal downswing. Gigabet-- one of the best SNG players-- had a 50 buyin downswing when he was moving up. Don't sweat it, play your normal game, maybe take a break if it's getting to ya. Do what YOU feel would make you most comfortable. There are players here, (raptor) who have broken even for 700 straight sitngos... the variance in SNG's is the lowest than any other form of poker, but stillhigh nonetheless. GL, and best wishes... got any tips for me 'cuz i'm movin up to the $55's

[pokerlaw]

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the variance in SNG's is the lowest than any other form of poker, but stillhigh nonetheless.

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while they are lower than cash games, a party S&G has a high variance compared to a t1500 one. Also, I am by far knowledgeable on this, but how great is the variance on MTT's? the fact that cashing once gives you MANY times your buyin makes me wonder....

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

while they are lower than cash games, a party S&G has a high variance compared to a t1500 one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really...

<font color="white">
Only b/c you can maintain a higher ITM/ROI on PokerStars...it has nothing really to do with more or fewer chips. Given the same ITM/ROI, the variance would be more or less the same.
</font>

Yugoslav

[adanthar]

Nah, variance will always be lower with more chips. If every SNG started with 1,000,000 chips and the same blinds, fish would almost never win.

The question is *how much* it's lower by. Probably not that big a difference, but it's at least a couple of percent here and there.

(It has to do with the size of the stacks when the bubble hits - when the chip leader has 6 BB and you have 4, hitting a 20 SNG streak of 53o's is a lot worse than when the chip leader has 20 and you have 15.)

[Degen]

Enjoy some of that money.

I've found that trying to play through a downswing can be mentally destructive, bankroll destructive and -EV long term as it'll make you view the game as more of a 'grind' and like your job.

When i start to feel the bad beats coming and like the tsunami is on its way, I unplug the computer, cashout all money in my accounts and take a trip...i did it last weekend as a matter of fact...started to run bad, so i took a trip with a buddy to TJ for the weekend and we had a blast. I played 1/2 a set in an internet cafe on the last day, and won both tournies, and i could feel it coming back. This week was a phenomenal one at the tables for me.


So my advice...take some of that 20k and go to Cancun, or Vegas or NYC or back home or ANYWHERE except where you normally play your SNG's.


Andre

[Maulik]

The beauty of working for yourself is having the abilty to take time off like degen said. Just relax, go to the bars, go for a run, get off your arse.

[The Yugoslavian]

It's not the chips themselves or the STTs on Stars themselves...it's that a good player can increase ITM/ROI due to more starting chips...

Variance will not always be lower...only for 'good' winning players. And it's not going to be too much lower anyway (unless you give players your million chips and slow blind leveling).

Yugoslav

[DonButtons]

Your a winning player, but thats $215s for ya, if thats your first bad swing, Im guessing your #s are way off from your first 500 set. But Im guessing 10% roi still, but dont expect to keep running like you have been after your first set of 500.

I just look at it in the overall picture, I get my sngs in, thats my job, eventually the money will be there, as long as you have the bankroll to handle the variance and the mental toughness to handle the very bad swings, you should be fine.

[Phoenix1010]

Move up in levels.






Just kidding.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, after killing the game for about 500 games I hit a pretty significant downswing. I am down 25 buyins in the $215's in the last 150 dames or so. I feel as if I have been playing well but I always seem to lose coin flips and I seem to ALWAYS lose to 3 outers. So far today, out of about 35 games, I have had 1 first. That is HORRIBLE. I guess I am wondering if this is a "normal" downswing. At what point do you move down or leave sngs all together? I still have about 100 buyins or so sitting in neteller, so I am not really in the need of money. I have considered changing my name as some people are now calling me with absolute trash, which happens to be better than the trash I push with. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wellcome to the $215s. The reality is that 25 buy-ins is not "significant" at that level. It sucks, but it happens pretty frequently. You have to play thousands of these suckers before you start to have a grasp of your true ROI. I've had a 20% ROI over 500, and lost money over 500 - there's a lot of variance even within that # of SNGs.

There's a reason people buy treasuries instead of investing in the stock market, and there's a reason people who can beat the $215s play lower (even though they could make more per SNG at the $215s). The swings involved can be highly life -EV, all things considered. A high risk tolerance (or maybe it's more of an "affection for risk") goes a long way towards determining whether the $215s are a good place to be in the long run. That and an always healthy bankroll (I'd say at least 100 buy-ins if poker is your only source of income).

[raptor517]

well mr card shark, i think i mentioned this happening over yer next set /images/graemlins/wink.gif dont get discouraged. that 700 streak someone spoke of? yea, it actually kept going. it was 700 breaking even in the 55s, then 400 breaking even in the 109s. in the 215s, ive played around 500 this month having a -.23% roi. yea, super solid. this is by far my worst month of poker. ever. just nothing seems to win for me. however, jsut stick with it, eventually, you can outrun the suckouts. (so they say..)

i duno about breaks, people have always told me to take a break when im running bad, and apparently it is supposed to help, but i suppose that im a degenerate and feel a need to play 10409135080385 sngs a day. i duno, if u ever feel crappy about a run, remember, wwrd. and the answer is hit a wall and curse a lot. that is +ev. holla

[Barcalounger]

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i duno, if u ever feel crappy about a run, remember, wwrd. and the answer is hit a wall and curse a lot

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Last night after my bubble A10 allin got called, dominated, and knocked out in fourth by A4 for about the 15th bad beat of the night, I asked myself WWRD? Apparently I didn't do it right becaues all I got was dogs barking, a newly awake/puzzled/angry wife, and a day at work where it hurts to type (-EV for software developer). I want a refund.

[boedeker]

-25 over 150 hahaha. try -25 in a row.

[sabre170]

Push less with absolute trash? Just a suggestion...

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
if u ever feel crappy about a run, remember, wwrd.

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http://www.redstararms.com/wwrd.jpg

[DonButtons]

[ QUOTE ]
-25 over 150 hahaha. try -25 in a row.

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whew, I had a feeling not to back you /images/graemlins/grin.gif j/k dude

[boedeker]

still waiting for 100x100 /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Jibbs]

I think the most important thing is not to let it change the way you play.

I'm going through the same thing right now ending up in 4th constantly as I seem to be losing all my races and a lot of the hands where I have big advantages. In the meantime the short stacks at the table seem to keep catching flops to double up and stay alive as I get taken out. Very frustrating.

In order to keep winning I have to approach each game with an optimistic attitude that things are going to go right for me. Otherwise I get much to tight and scared to take chances. Make sure that all of the losses arent causing you to change your game and make bad decisions.

Edit: Oh yeah. A punching bag next to your computer can do wonders and save possibly save some drywall /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jibbs]

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... and the mental toughness to handle the very bad swings, you should be fine.

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Uh oh, nobody said anything about me needing mental toughness before. Guess I'm going back to work. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the most important thing is not to let it change the way you play.

I'm going through the same thing right now ending up in 4th constantly as I seem to be losing all my races and a lot of the hands where I have big advantages. In the meantime the short stacks at the table seem to keep catching flops to double up and stay alive as I get taken out. Very frustrating.

In order to keep winning I have to approach each game with an optimistic attitude that things are going to go right for me. Otherwise I get much to tight and scared to take chances. Make sure that all of the losses arent causing you to change your game and make bad decisions.

Edit: Oh yeah. A punching bag next to your computer can do wonders and save possibly save some drywall /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice.

[valenzuela]

Have a liquid paper next to u, after a bad beat press it.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the most important thing is not to let it change the way you play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that its really important to keep confidence in your abilities and strategies during a downswing. I usually find that during a downswing is the best time to reevaluate my play though and hunt down any leaks. When my cards are running hot I don't feel inspired to improve my game because my game is working. When I'm running cold though it motivates me to spend more time studying and evaluating my game in the place of some of the time I would have spent playing

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i duno, if u ever feel crappy about a run, remember, wwrd. and the answer is hit a wall and curse a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

Last night after my bubble A10 allin got called, dominated, and knocked out in fourth by A4 for about the 15th bad beat of the night, I asked myself WWRD? Apparently I didn't do it right becaues all I got was dogs barking, a newly awake/puzzled/angry wife, and a day at work where it hurts to type (-EV for software developer). I want a refund.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you scream HOLLA! like a little girl? If not, that's where you went wrong.

[JackSchit20]

[ QUOTE ]
as long as you have the bankroll to handle the variance and the mental toughness to handle the very bad swings, you should be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have any suggestions on ways to improve or strengthen mental toughness when dealing with bad swings? Right now I am re-reading some sections of books that deal with areas I feel are some of the causes of the bad swing, but are there any other suggestions?

[Apathy]

Improving mental toughness can be tricky. I think the most common and easy way to improve in this area is experience. The OP for example is suffering his first bad swing since going pro, what doesn't kill you can make you stronger when it comes to this stuff. The next similar downswing down the road won't feel nearly as bad, and probabaly won't affect him as much.

This happens all the time when playing high limits or out ofyour bankroll, or after just moving up. The bad beats you never used to notice start affecting you because of the greater amount of money now in play.

Some people are genetically disposed to be able to handle these kinds of things better then others as well, and some peopleare just blow-ups and they can't keep the same level of play after a bad start. You need to find out which on e you are and monitor your play at all times, if you notice it slipping, you take a break. This can be a hard thing to learn, but it's saved me a lots of money.

Also, getting down on yourself and feeling like you can't win anything can be a self-fufilling prophecy. Believing that you are going through 'it' is just another form of self destruction.

[Jibbs]

Good points. I thought about this after I wrote it and I guess I should say don't let it change the way you play if you are a good player.

But you are definitely right. I know over the last month my game has actually gotten better because I have had to try to do more with less. The game is easy when its raining Aces.

[FieryJustice]

Thank you for the posts, everyone. I am considering getting a punching bag. I planned on taking a 2 day break but then I realized that today was friday, so I plan on playing for about 3 hours tonight, as my results have always been good on the weekend nights. I believe I am handling the downswing well...I havent broken anything yet and I still push when I am supposed to even though I know that if I get called I will be taking 4th. I suppose I shold look more at the total results and not just the results of 100 game blocks. If I just looked at the last 100 games, I think i'd want to kill myself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif So, I will start looking in 1000 game blocks. If I lose over 1000 games, I guess I will be a garbage man or something. Seriously though, Thanks for all the advice. It is greatly appreciated.

Jcardshark

[raptor517]

i should be a garbage man then.. holla

[Rojosox]

raptor- where the hell are you? In CA?

[Voltron87]

1. Go out and party tonight. Don't think about SNGs.
2. Go out and party Saturday night. Forget what SNGs are.
3. Go out and spend some money Sunday night. Don't think about poker. Whats 2-3 more buy ins?
4. Monday at 6pm, play poker.


This is the toughest part of poker to master in my opinion, the mental toughness, endurance, and focus to keep playing well. We have big upswings, and it works both ways, we have big downswings.

It's easy to underestimate the short term luck in SNGs as well. I had a terrible day yesterday, literally, I could not win. Down big. I was just losing no matter what. AK to AQ, AA to JJ... then I hit a set on one table and was ready to win. Oh wait. He had a bigger set. @#$)@#*($!. Then I started up one set and everything went right. I ended up moneying in all 4, winning 2 and getting 2nd and 3rd in the others, getting all the way back to even in one set. All that happened was I won a couple 50 50s and was in a good bubble position. And my AK held up against J9. I was steaming pretty bad before the last set, I was still playing ok, but I was pissed. The last set kind of put it in perspective, I felt I played just as well in it as in the others, I just won the 50 50s in them and held up. And that can be the difference between -10 buy ins and net zero. I'm rambling, but coinflips are so big in determining whether SNG players have even days it isn't funny sometimes.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not the chips themselves or the STTs on Stars themselves...it's that a good player can increase ITM/ROI due to more starting chips...

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems pretty self-contradictory.

Another factor in Stars having a smaller variance is 9-handed instead of 10-handed play.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you have any suggestions on ways to improve or strengthen mental toughness when dealing with bad swings? Right now I am re-reading some sections of books that deal with areas I feel are some of the causes of the bad swing, but are there any other suggestions?

[/ QUOTE ]

The best way to deal with them is having experienced them before. The fourth-fifth time you have a huge downswing you should have learned that it is not an intergalactic conspiracy but simple variance and that it won't last forever.

I think there is no ultimate strategy for handling downswings/bad beats etc. Much of it is how you are as a person. For some keeping busy (via multitabling) works great in making you let go of past hands, while for some they need to stop playing for a while to get in balance.

[byronkincaid]

[ QUOTE ]
some people are now calling me with absolute trash, which happens to be better than the trash I push with

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe all these people telling you not to change your game. This is absolute nonsense, you need to be thinking about and improving your game all the time.

Is everyone saying that you are the greatest sng player ever so you don't have to change? Even if you are the best sng player in the world if people are getting a handle on how you play then by being intelligent you can work out ways to throw this back in their faces.

Think and grow rich dude /images/graemlins/cool.gif

As far as changing your name, there are two ways to look at it. I've just changed my names because I like being anonomous, I play in a way where I'm quite happy to be thought of as a fish. But on the other hand if you're known to be a good player then other good players will try to avoid you leaving you to carve up the fish yourself. ZJ or Dali being 2 obvious examples.

I was running terrible at the start of last month. I went out and got drunk with some friends, came home and played 2 sngs and really got into and enjoyed the games. So I cut down from 6 to 2 tables after that and tryed to concentrate on playing and enjoying the game again. I was surprised just how many moves I was putting on people that I would never have thought of 6 tabling. I stopped recording my results I have no idea what my ROI is or even how many sngs I'm playing now, as far as I'm concerned it's just the money at the end of the month that matters. I'm back up to 4 tables now but if I get stale again then I'll cut back. Running over tables is fun. Churning out 50 sngs a day got to be like working on a production line to me.

Hope some of this is of use to you.

Good luck

BK

[Route246]

I'm guessing that your 500 tourney rush probably made you think you were a better player than you really are. I know getting on a rush does that to me. Unfortunately, a downswing always brings me back down to earth. I've never experienced a rush with an ROI like you have but I've suffered through my share of downswings to the point where I'm pretty humble. Aggressive and cocky, but nonetheless humble to the poker gods. And I've been playing holdem for a little over 25 years now, starting in Reno when Sklansky used to live there, when the players were so bad that you just walked into the room and scooped up the money (almost).

A 100 game block is pretty significant. A 500 game heater like you experienced is unreal, especially for someone who has never had a serious downswing. I'm also guessing that you haven't considered the fact that you may only be experiencing what players refer to as, "The cards breaking even," but in your case, breaking even in the wrong direction. At the level you're playing at there are many very good players who know far more than what you can read in books or on forums like this.

Your psyche appears to be shot, or at least wounded. Losing every coin flip for a sustained length of time is part of poker. Any seasoned veteran here knows that. Some will recommend playing through it, others will recommend taking a break. There is no right or wrong answer. It all depends on you.

A deep self-evaluation is probably in order. When you were on the 500 game rush were you getting lucky more than your fair share? Were you flopping sets more than 12% of the time when you held pocket pairs? Were you winning far more than 50% of the coin flips you were involved in? Did you ever play hunches and win?

These are the sort of things you need to step back and evaluate. Everyone looks like a champion when they get slapped in the face with the deck. A true champion knows money management first and playing cards second.

"It's money management, Stupid" (wise old poker pro I knew)

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the posts, everyone. I am considering getting a punching bag. I planned on taking a 2 day break but then I realized that today was friday, so I plan on playing for about 3 hours tonight, as my results have always been good on the weekend nights. I believe I am handling the downswing well...I havent broken anything yet and I still push when I am supposed to even though I know that if I get called I will be taking 4th. I suppose I shold look more at the total results and not just the results of 100 game blocks. If I just looked at the last 100 games, I think i'd want to kill myself. /images/graemlins/smile.gif So, I will start looking in 1000 game blocks. If I lose over 1000 games, I guess I will be a garbage man or something. Seriously though, Thanks for all the advice. It is greatly appreciated.

Jcardshark

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