88 in CO, how's this line and is my thinking correct?

[polley]

Full Tilt 1/2 (9 handed) Avergae 4 to 5 player to the flop.
No reads, only been around for 15 hands.

Hero is in CO with 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

2 folds, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls (10 SB)

Flop: J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB checks, MP1 Bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls (7BB)[MP1 didn't call his own bet... Full tilt's HH doens't work so im working off notes]

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB Checks, MP1 Bets, MP3 Calls, Hero Raises, BB Folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls

River: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP1 Checks, MP3 Checks, Hero Bets, MP1 Calls, MP3 Folds

I generally don't slowplay made hands, but thought this would be a good place to do it on the flop. I didn't want to scare everyone away and figured that me raising would knock out more players than I wanted. And I am not going to scare away the hands that I want to go away (J-x).

So what do you think?

Thanks for the help-
CC

[@bsolute_luck]

standard IMHO.

[Roybert]

nice hand

[i wanna be me]

IMO, this is the WORST flop in the world to try slowplaying on (2 jacks, 2 suited, straight draws). People are gonna stay around for 2 if they have any draw here. Raise this flop and hope a club or 10/9 comes. I fear you're leaving too much money on the table here. This is a value raise.

[MrWookie47]

Looks pretty good. When you're holding two of the 8s, there's little guarantee that the flop hit anyone at all, and any of your opponents have at most 3 outs against you. Just so long as you planned to raise the turn, the smooth call on the flop is fine here.

You may want to check your history, however, since it appears that MP1 called his own flop bet.

[meep_42]

Perfect.

I find this is interchangable with raising the flop, though -- you're going to have to face the field with 2 cold, may as well do it on the small street. Also, if the PFR isn't likely to bet out the turn UI, I may be more inclined to pop the turn and ensure I get some more bets from people drawing dead.

The two plays are close, depending on the specific players involved (those you'd face with 2 cold - how likely are they to call on the flop/turn? The PFR - is he going to go to war on the flop with TT? Will he lead the turn with AK?)

-d

[keikiwai]

*grunch*

I would only be cold calling this very rarely or if you are sure at least one of the blinds goes along. Both blinds go along, so looking good pf.

The flop is a definite re-raise. You flopped a boat, but you'd like A-9J to fold and any pocket pair higher than an 8 to fold (edit pocket pairs you don't want to fold). Calling the bet gives A-9J odds to call, reraising destroys their odds and makes calling on their part a big mistake.

Odds to call the flop way you played it: 1:13.

Odds if you re-raise. 1:7 for the SB to call right after your re-raise. 1:9 for everyone if all the same people call, but several would probably drop out.

Anyway, the rest of the hand looks fine, and from everyone's play it looks like you won, but you hate getting drawn out here by AJ, and since you have the power to make calling w/ AJ on the flop a huge mistake if you re-raise... you should re-raise.

1:13 for AJ on the flop is a call, since he only needs about 1:10..... 1:7 or 1:9 for AJ on the flop (what he gets w/ re-raise) should get him to fold, and if he doesn't he's making a mistake.

edit: changed 3 outers to 4 outers
Peter.

[MrWookie47]

With his call on the flop, hero gave up at most 2 BB, assuming the big blind would have called two cold. This situation, it worked out pretty well, and he made that back up. It's hard to quantify how likely MP1 is to bet again and MP3 to call again, letting you make it up. In this situation, eh, it's probably pretty close between slowplaying and not slowplaying, since there's a chance that not slowplaying will kill some river action.

[keikiwai]

I don't think slowplay is good because you are vulnerable to getting sucked out on...

pf raise could be AJ. Slow playing gives AJ odds to call. He got 1:10 w/ 4 outs. You re-raise the flop and suddenly 4 outsers AJ or KJ or QJ or TJ or 9J (all of which suck out on you if a J or higher than 8 falls) are getting 1:7 to 1:9 depending on how many people stay in. You love this since calling on their part now becomes a mistake.... (see my grunch below)

You're not worried about pocket pairs higher than an 8, since these don't have odds to call even w/o the flop re-raise.

edit: changed 3 outers to 4 outers

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I would only be cold calling this very rarely or if you are sure at least one of the blinds goes along. Both blinds go along, so looking good pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

With -1- loose player behind me, I cold-call this all day long at 2/4.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is a definite re-raise. You flopped a boat, but you'd like A-9J to fold and any pocket pair higher than an 8 to fold. Calling the bet gives A-9J odds to call, reraising destroys their odds and makes calling on their part a big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't want PPs that missed the flop to fold. We don't want gutshots to fold. Anyone with a J isn't going to fold no matter what we do -- and they're drawing to 4 outs, so we don't want them to fold anyway, as they're not getting odds regardless. We want to maximize money in this pot, there is no need to protect here, Hero has maybe 6 cards that beat him in the (3rd) worst-case scenario.

[ QUOTE ]
...but you hate getting drawn out here by AJ, and since you have the power to make calling w/ AJ on the flop a huge mistake if you re-raise... you should re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would never, ever be a mistake for AJ to raise and re-raise here unless he knew exactly what you had, so he's not folding, ever. It's not even crossing his mind. It's also unlikely that anyone here has a J, just because there are only 2 of them left in the deck, so tailoring your play against the equivalent of a gutshot (though more unlikely than a gutshot) isn't optimal.

-d

[keikiwai]

Calling w/ this pf, you're probably right... I'm never sure about what to cold call pf...

OOPS AJ-9J are 4 outers not 3 outer like I though. This makes re-raising mandatory. 4 outers need about 1:10 to call. W/o a re-raise they are getting this much on the flop.

If like you say, we cannot get AJ to fold, we must make staying along for him a mistake. As it is getting 1:13 on the flop, it is correct for him to stay along. If we re-raise, and he gets at most 1:9.... we invite him not to fold, since he will be making a mistake by sticking around...

or am I missing something?

[meep_42]

You can make him make a much bigger mistake on the turn, where he's still likely to give you action.

So, you're taking a small risk on the flop (4/46 times he'll outdraw you, to make him make a bigger mistake on the turn -- paying 2 or 3 bets to see a river card that he's getting much worse odds to see (8:1))

(times he'll outdraw on the turn)[BBs lost] + (times he outdraws on the river)[BBs lost] + (times you win)[pot + BBs won]
EV = (4/46)[-4] + (42/46)(4/45)[-5] + (42/46)(41/45)[7+4]
EV = -3.91 + -4.92 + 9.15 = 0.32BB

This assumes villain has AJ and you get no bets on the turn/river from anyone else (calls from others would make it more +EV to wait to raise)

Again, you need to be relatively sure that the aggressor will bet out again on the turn here for this to be better than fastplaying the whole way.

[edit - knowing the opponents cards makes it closer to neutral EV, but it's still right about 0.3BB]

-d

[keikiwai]

ok, thanks, I see where you're coming from....

[flyangler]

[ QUOTE ]
OOPS AJ-9J are 4 outers not 3 outer like I though. This makes re-raising mandatory. 4 outers need about 1:10 to call. W/o a re-raise they are getting this much on the flop.

If like you say, we cannot get AJ to fold, we must make staying along for him a mistake. As it is getting 1:13 on the flop, it is correct for him to stay along. If we re-raise, and he gets at most 1:9.... we invite him not to fold, since he will be making a mistake by sticking around...

or am I missing something?


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the above quote. Raise to get the AJ types out now, preflop.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the above quote. Raise to get the AJ types out now, preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's already a cold-caller between the PFR and us, so it's not going to get head's up. In micros, it's not likely to even just be 3-way. /images/graemlins/wink.gif I much prefer cold-calling and playing poker on the flop, ymmv.

-d

[keikiwai]

I was talking about re-raising the flop. W/ mid level pocket pairs you WANT the blinds to come along, so don't re-raise pf...

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this is the WORST flop in the world to try slowplaying on (2 jacks, 2 suited, straight draws). People are gonna stay around for 2 if they have any draw here. Raise this flop and hope a club or 10/9 comes. I fear you're leaving too much money on the table here. This is a value raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you expect villain to bet the turn for you so you can raise there, then it's not bad at all because you collect MORE bets when they are drawing than if you raise the flop and get checked to on the turn. (But since they are drawing and not folding, you will want to get AT LEAST one raise in, either on the flop or the turn. Waiting until the river would be disasterous.)

[ErrantNight]

going for overcalls on this semi-coordinated board with a dominant holding seems A-OK to me.

nice turn raise.

[ErrantNight]

given that he doesn't know what you have, he will never fold, so you shouldn't even address that as a possibility in your line. this is a pure extraction/value situation. you can't, and don't want to protect, and you certainly don't want to work to force a hypothetical opponent to face poor odds on his hypothetical hand that he's going to call anyway and can make up the difference in implied odds anyway.

if he had the whole field trapped, this raise would be standard. here, he stands as much to gain by getting overcalls as trapping existing bettors, and there's always the possibility that gets this raised behind him, allowing him to 3-bet or cap for value if people get crazy.

[Buckmulligan]

I would have raised the flop and hoped for the best. A lot of players will put money in drawing dead, and a flop raise makes you look weaker than a turn raise.