Bubble theory

[hummusx]

Based on responses to another thread that's running, I'm wondering if my thinking about bubble play is correct or not. I wanted to start a new thread on this so we could disconnect from real circumstances and talk in more general terms.

4 players left at the party 22 or 33 level. I'm the second lowest stack with 1000. The other low stack has 800, and the rest are split between the two remaining players. Blinds are 300. I have one of A8-A5.

a) UTG=3100, me=1000, SB=3100, BB=800

UTG folds, and I ?

b) UTG=800, me=1000, SB=3100, BB=3100

UTG folds and I ?

c) UTG=3100, me=1000, SB=800, BB=3100

UTG folds and I ?

My answer in all 3 cases is 'push'. I'm hoping at least I have agreement on that point. I guess the possibly more interesting question is, in what order of 'easiness' do these pushes fall? In other words, which am I least excited about? I was thinking that I'd be happiest to push in 'c', followed by 'b', and least happy pushing in 'a'. What I was hearing in the other thread was maybe the opposite, that 'a' was the most no-brainer push here, I guess because of the value of being called by a worse hand?

As a second set of questions, how do answers to a,b,c change for any two instead of Ax? And how do the relative rankings of pushing (if any) change?

[J-Lo]

a.) push
b.) fold <-- i do not like pushing into big stacks w/ a 60% advantage.
c.) push

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
b.) fold <-- i do not like pushing into big stacks w/ a 60% advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 3.5x BB do you think you really have a choice but to open push?

[hummusx]

I can understand not liking to push into two big stacks, but in 2 hands you are going to lose your FE. Are you planning to have a better hand by then?

[syka16]

a, push top 50
b, push 44+, A7o, A5s,KQs
c, add A2s, KQo, KTs+

[syka16]

To get an idea of how important stack sizes are on the bubble: it's usually more profitable to push KT with the short stack in the SB than it is to push AT with him UTG.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
To get an idea of how important stack sizes are on the bubble: it's usually more profitable to push KT with the short stack in the SB than it is to push AT with him UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

great point.

c is an easy push...SB has a super tight range here. a

a is arguably tougher than b...I think SS will call with a lot here if he's smart. he will have 450 after posting sb and will basically have to win a SD and still not be guaranteed jack.

b is a good push bc SB may fear that calling will get an over the top from BB so he will be tight.

my order from easiest to hardest: c, b, a

[beeyjay]

B is the hardest but is still a push.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
B is the hardest but is still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

arguably you're right. What's your range with shortstack in BB when button pushes in a?


Now what's your range with 3100 in BB?

my questions ignore the SB in these examples, so that is misleading. but im curious...i think you have less FE, ironically, in a.

[Degen]

Dunno if you realize this but the big stacks are supposed to call you from the BB w/ any two cards.

2:1 in the pot and you're all in and its less than 1/3rd of your stack.



Andre

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
Dunno if you realize this but the big stacks are supposed to call you from the BB w/ any two cards.

2:1 in the pot and you're all in and its less than 1/3rd of your stack.



Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

perhaps the BB will. But it's not correct to call from the big blind with any two in this spot. I'd call with top 40% because you can't really put the short stack on any two.

[Degen]

for B and C it is correct for the BB to call w/ any two cards.

This is a fundamental concept to winning SNG"s that I constantly see people not doing.


You are supposed to be calling with ANY TWO CARDS if somebody pushes your BB and the pot is laying you 2:1 or more AND if you call, you will lose less than one third of your stack. Yes 72o is included.


So say you are the BB w/ 3k. Blinds are 150-300 and UTG pushes for 1k. Pot is now 1450 and you have to call an additional 700. You will be left w/ 2400 if you lose.

This is an auto-call w/ any two cards.


Andre

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
for B and C it is correct for the BB to call w/ any two cards.

This is a fundamental concept to winning SNG"s that I constantly see people not doing.


You are supposed to be calling with ANY TWO CARDS if somebody pushes your BB and the pot is laying you 2:1 or more AND if you call, you will lose less than one third of your stack. Yes 72o is included.


So say you are the BB w/ 3k. Blinds are 150-300 and UTG pushes for 1k. Pot is now 1450 and you have to call an additional 700. You will be left w/ 2400 if you lose.

This is an auto-call w/ any two cards.


Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the pot is large enough for a call to be even chip EV, but that doesn't make it +EV to call with 72o. Suppose you knew he was pushing any two here, you still need to be holding a hand with 40% equity against his range to make it +EV (J4o for example). Now, the button will probably not be pushing any two, so you should tighten his range... This means you need to 40% equity against a somewhat tighter range (Top 70%).

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Dunno if you realize this but the big stacks are supposed to call you from the BB w/ any two cards.

2:1 in the pot and you're all in and its less than 1/3rd of your stack.



Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, but that's not the point of the post. The point of the post is to determine what people will do, not what they should do. At the lower levels, bigstacks generally are more interested in maintaining their chip lead and being aggressive (by being the first to enter pots - not by calling with suboptimal hands).

I think that all of these are very difficult hands. I find that A is the most challenging. After posting, BB (shorty) will only have 1.6 x BB remaining. The probability of a call here has to be highest (doesn't it?).

Scuba

[hummusx]

I'm sure you mean a, since in b the short stack is UTG and has already folded. I had always thought the same, that it would be the worst because it's the most likely to be called and possibly lose. What I was hearing (and am hearing in this thread) is that that might not be the case.

[FieryJustice]

I would push on all of them because I dont mind taking a 40% chance at 4th to give me enough chips to actually have a shot at 1st. Thats just me though.

Jcardshark

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push on all of them because I dont mind taking a 40% chance at 4th to give me enough chips to actually have a shot at 1st. Thats just me though.

Jcardshark

[/ QUOTE ]

With Ax? What about any 2?

[Scuba Chuck]

Yes I did mean A (edited now).

[ QUOTE ]
What I was hearing (and am hearing in this thread) is that that might not be the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I am going more on theory. I'm willing to learn. I'd be interested in seeing some results on this. My general thoughts are that it will be difficult for a short stack to pass up calling once they have less then 3 X BB. Perhaps I assume that they know this (as I do).

I'm sure Degen will give us some thoughts on this...

[sabre170]

It depends.
How much stealing are you doing in the big stacks' perception?

How much have the other players been doing?

Most of your equity in this tournament will come from placing 3rd, so be careful about risking that.

Sabre170

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
for B and C it is correct for the BB to call w/ any two cards.

This is a fundamental concept to winning SNG"s that I constantly see people not doing.


You are supposed to be calling with ANY TWO CARDS if somebody pushes your BB and the pot is laying you 2:1 or more AND if you call, you will lose less than one third of your stack. Yes 72o is included.


So say you are the BB w/ 3k. Blinds are 150-300 and UTG pushes for 1k. Pot is now 1450 and you have to call an additional 700. You will be left w/ 2400 if you lose.

This is an auto-call w/ any two cards.


Andre

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddly enough Eastbay's SNG tool disagrees with you. If the button is pushing with Any Pair, Any Ace, Any broadway. He should be calling with the top 40% of hands.

I think a lot of people take the "any two" thing too far. There are really only a few spots where calling any 2 is actually profitable