A-2 "busted" consistently ... what are the odds?

My frustration is so high right now, I have to post this.

Each of my last 20 A-2-X-X on Party have been "busted". By "busted", I mean either (a) one or zero low cards on the flop, or (b) counterfeit flop. These have included several a-2-3-x. (While I might have been able to stay in after the flop due to a check around on one or two occasions, none of these hands proved to be a winner. 0 for 20.)

What are the odds? 20 in a row? Incredible.

make it 21

[shawn_p]

"That's poker. I'm tired of saying it, but that's poker."

T.J. Clotier /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Keep your chin up man. Each time your ace duece gets "busted" means the deck is getting that much hotter for you in the future.

[GooperMC]

Depending on your other 2 cards A2XX will flop a nut low or a nut low draw between 36% (for A2 with 2 low cards) and 61% (for A234). If we assume that you average 40% then the probability of missing twenty times in a row would be the .6^20 or very damn small (about 3/1000 of a percent).

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Keep your chin up man. Each time your ace duece gets "busted" means the deck is getting that much hotter for you in the future.

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The sentiment is good however the logic is bad. I agree that the only remedy for this ailment is to keep your chin up by knowing that statistically this can’t last forever, however the deck is not getting any hotter. Each hand is an independent event; 1 hand does not effect another so he could miss his A2’s 1 million more times and he would still have the same probability on his 1 million and 1 hand. When we are getting unlucky it is always nice to think that the game owes us something but from a probably standpoint it doesn’t.

If it makes you feel better in the last 500 hands have won 9% of the flops that I have seen. I know that doesn’t help your problem but it may make you feel a little better to laugh at me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks for responding. I'm glad this wasn't taken as a bitch and moan/bad beat that happens to everyone type thing. I really think this run has been truly incredible. 21 in a row, and still counting.

[toots]

Hey, I just had the same experience over the weekend with Party. Just about every A2xx, just about every A23x, and even one AA23(!) got busted.

Maybe we should start a topic about how Party is rigged.

Oh yeah:

Big /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

That may just be poker, but it ain't gonna buy me a new monitor...

And meanwhile schlubs are scooping with their 5-6-10-j. Offsuit.

[Beavis68]

I know, I am bonus clearing on party right now, down 17 on table and even on the other after one our of play, lost to JT66 that chased a J high flush draw, and K752 that hit a runner runner boat.

I have tracked these players on party, and I am conviced that there IS a schooling factor to O8b. I also think that A2xx hands suck and that I am too agressive on these tables.

I used to beat these tables for about 5BB/100. Not sure what happened, the players sure didnt get any better.

[TGoldman]

Be happy to only get counterfeited on the flop. For me, those cards usually like to wait until at least the turn to counterfeit my lows. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[toots]

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And meanwhile schlubs are scooping with their 5-6-10-j. Offsuit.

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Well, there is the upside. "Sat down" at an O/8 table the other night. Posted, and managed to check through to the flop with a pretty sorry hand. Something like 457J rainbow. Miracle of miracles, I ended up flopping a wheel.

So, I jammed the crap out of it, in hopes I'd also catch a 7 high straight. I didn't, but I ended up getting the low pot, with the others splitting the high pot.

The table captain probably didn't notice that I was only in the hand because I sat down and posted, so he proceeds to go on tilt over my hideous play.

I went on to have a thoroughly lousy losing session from there, but it was a hoot to watch the table captain ranting and raging about the fish (me).

[HopeydaFish]

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And meanwhile schlubs are scooping with their 5-6-10-j. Offsuit.

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Put these schlubs on your buddy list. After scooping pots playing these sorts of hands, they probably believe that they're great O/8 players now and will keep coming back for more. Just don't start playing "down to their level" in order to try to beat them, that never works. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I had a great weekend playing only a few hours of O/8. I sat down at a $50 PL table, and walked away with six times as much a few hours later.

The only blemish on my profitable weekend came later on that evening (after I'd left the $50 table and come back to a $25 table) came when a certain known maniac sat at my table and started making pot-sized bets pre-flop almost every hand. He'd luck out frequently, and busted a few of the other players when his garbage starting hands hit miracle flops, and I got impatient waiting to get a strong hand in order to isolate him and take his stack. I finally went in with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and he made a pot-sized bet, and I re-raised him all-in. Of course, my nut low was counterfeited on the river (the board was A25JK, no flush possibility) and he scooped with the wheel thanks to his hand of 3499 rainbow.

I went to bed after watching him blow his wad the following hand by chasing the nut flush, without any possibility of the low.

He's on my buddy list. Playing premium hands against a guy like this pays off big-time in the long run, even if there are some short-term annoyances.

[gergery]

A bare A2xx should make a nut low around 22% of the time, I think, just doing some basic math in my head. (assuming you have to fold on 2 high card flops)

So you should have had 4 or 5 wins out of the 21. So getting 0 would be unexpected and definitely unusual, but not totally unreasonable variance.

I’ve found paying attention to results in poker only leads to me getting frustrated/tilting. Whenever I start down that path I try to ask “Did I make correct decisions on each street, knowing what I knew then?”

Sometimes I will also play the hand back and ask, “Knowing what his cards were, what would have been my correct play on each street”? If you do this a few times, you can get a better read on opponent’s range of hands which helps determine a) when you should bet for value given his range of holdings, and b) when you are likely in trouble.

After thinking a bunch about that, sometimes I’ve managed to distract myself and am no longer frustrated about losing the hand. Well, not very often, but occasionally /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

--Greg