JJ preflop - two maniacs

[TheWorstPlayer]

Converter not working for this hand for some reason, but there is no flop or anything, so I'm just writing it out.

Player 1 is 62/29. I have seen him get WAY out of line several times. He has gone all in for 25 into a $1 pot with a draw. He has re-raised all in with 95o. Etc.

Player 2 is 57/25. I have seen him also get WAY out of line several times. He has check/raised all in with TPWK against a PFR. He has open pushed several times into small pots. Twice he got called and lost his stack. He had absolutely nothing either time, no hand, no draw.

So, what's my play?

***** Hand History for Game 1902471334 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Saturday, April 16, 02:45:07 EDT 2005
Table Table 37260 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Hero ( $60.52 )
Seat 3: XXX( $50.1 )
Seat 4: Player 1 ( $14.3 )
Seat 6: Player 2 ( $57.8 )
Seat 2: XXX( $24.4 )
Seat 5: XXX( $26.08 )
XXX posts small blind [$0.1].
Player 2 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero[ Jd Js ]
Hero raises [$1.5].
XXX folds.
XXX folds.
Player 1 raises [$4].
XXX folds.
Player 2 raises [$14.75].
Hero...?

[Spladle Master]

I would fold.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hand ranges?

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand ranges?

[/ QUOTE ]

Player 1 has:
an overpair ~ 5% of the time.
an underpair ~ 20% of the time.
two overcards ~ 20% of the time.
one overcard ~ 50% of the time.
no overcards ~ 5% of the time.

Player 2 has:
an overpair ~ 5% of the time.
an underpair ~ 20% of the time.
two overcards ~ 20% of the time.
one overcard ~ 50% of the time.
no overcards ~ 5% of the time.

[radioheadfan]

JJ seems a little marginal given these 2 players willingness to gamble. You're gonna get called by player 2's likely two overcards if you push, creating a coin flip you don't want.

What you could do is smooth call the $14, take a look at a flop and proceed from there - that way player 1 is likely to join the party and increase your pot odds.

If player 1 pushes preflop and player 2 pushes on top, well I go along for the ride with them. Doubtful they have higher pairs than you so you're likely to be +EV.

It's high variance to play with maniacs, so don't feel too bad if you lost this one.

For what it's worth, I think in this case its fairly likely they they have at least 1 of each others outs.

[TheWorstPlayer]

What's my equity against those ranges, and why do you think it is the same range for a maniac to re-raise me as it is for a manic to re-re-raise a maniac? Not saying that it isn't, but I am curious as to your thought process.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
You're gonna get called by player 2's likely two overcards if you push, creating a coin flip you don't want.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why don't you want to be in a situation where you get the money in while ahead, WITH dead money already in the pot? This is actually an ideal situation.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
What's my equity against those ranges, and why do you think it is the same range for a maniac to re-raise me as it is for a manic to re-re-raise a maniac? Not saying that it isn't, but I am curious as to your thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're in bad shape against an overpair. You're in good shape against an underpair or less than two overcards. You're about even with two overcards.

I don't think the range of the second maniac is EXACTLY the same as the first, but it's probably close enough for government work.

[jonnyUCB]

cause you dont want to double a maniac up on a marginally EV push - which is still even debatable. Theres nothing I hate more than a maniac losing MY money to some other rock on the table.

The PF push is also debatable but I'm not sure how often these guys have played like this on your table. It seems like their maniacal plays have come post flop, no? Raising in the first position puts you on likely hands that would like to go all-in.. would they really test you by reraising with junk? are they that stupid?

Personally I'd wait for a better situation against these types of maniacs but I've played versus certain types where this would be an insta-push. Based on your description of their tendencies I would wait.

[xorbie]

The problem with waiting for a better situation is that someone else will likely take it.

The thing about this hand is that it's quite possible that one of them has an underpair, which creates huge amounts of dead money for hero, so that the rare times the re-raiser has AA/KK/QQ are offset by the times he has AT and hero is over 50% to win a three way pot.

[Dallas33]

In my experience online I would say that the first raise is probably two over cards. But I would be almost certain that the $14 raise is either QQ KK or AA. I would definitly fold here and wait for a better position. You are going to get their money just make sure it is on your terms.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience online I would say that the first raise is probably two over cards. But I would be almost certain that the $14 raise is either QQ KK or AA. I would definitly fold here and wait for a better position. You are going to get their money just make sure it is on your terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Even maniacs do get cards at some point.

[SeattleJake]

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen him also get WAY out of line several times. He has check/raised all in with TPWK against a PFR. He has open pushed several times into small pots. Twice he got called and lost his stack. He had absolutely nothing either time, no hand, no draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Weird, I didn't think I was playing at all today...


Player two wants to isolate player 1. Probably has AK/AQs, thinking P1 as a mid-pair. P1 thinks you're playing any standard opening hand, so probalby thinks his 88/99 are worth an isolation on you, and wasn't expecing P2 to raise.

I think you're ahead whether one or both stays in, and I'd call. If he has KK you're f*cked, but I don't think so considering that his bet was just enough to cover P1 and probably isn't expecting you to call, rather than not caring either way.

Should you push? How the hell should I know, I suck in these situations. I realized playing on the 2+2 table yesterday that I never really go all-in unless it's near a pot-sized bet anyway. I need to work on that.

[SeattleJake]

Pot equity against 99 & AQs: 44% ($8.95)

Pot equity against AQs: 54% ($10.99)

Pot equity against KK: 19% ($3.87)

Alright fine, it may not be worth a call. I think my hand-ranges are good though...

[MisterKing]

this is a little late in coming, and I haven't read eveyrone else's posts, but I would fold & get my money in at a better spot, where I was more sure of where I stood. Same goes for QQ. KK/AA I'm pushing.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, I'm a wimp and have been running bad which may have colored my decision making so I folded. Player 1 had K5s (yes, K5s) and Player 2 had AQo. Of course an ace hit on the flop and I would have lost my stack, but that would have been par for the course since I was running bad. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[TreyOfLight]

I think your Jacks are good here a lot of the time.

Here's a similar hand from tonight. CO is 90/50 in about 20 hands. The extra $5 in his stack is mine from an orbit before: he open-raised from MP, it was folded to me (SB) where I repopped with AJs; he raised again (about 5x, to nearly all-in) and I folded.

MP2 is 50/30.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ 0.25 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 ($26.21)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($30.79)</font>
Button ($32.8)
SB ($11.85)
BB ($6.03)
UTG ($44.2)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($45.85)</font>
MP1 ($5.15)
MP2 ($14.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $39.25</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls $10.79 (All-In).

Flop: ($71.39) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: ($71.39) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($71.39) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $71.39

Results in beige below: <font color="#F5F5DC">
Hero has Qh Qd (two pair, queens and eights).
CO has 3d 3h (two pair, eights and sevens).
CO says: "you lucky azz"
Hero says: "you had a pair of 3s"
CO says: "and?"

[EDIT: dialogue added]
Outcome: Hero wins $71.38. </font>

[TheWorstPlayer]

I agree that these people are really stupid sometimes, but the hands are pretty different. In yours, it is a raise to 3BB and then a massive re-raise. In mine, I raised to 4BB (they may have noticed I'm tightish) then it was re-raised, THEN it was massively RE-re-raised. As it turns out, I still had odds to call, but the hand range of the RE-re-raiser has to be a BIT tighter even though he is a maniac, I think.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
As it turns out, I still had odds to call, but the hand range of the RE-re-raiser has to be a BIT tighter even though he is a maniac, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Their aggression does not spring from the quality of their cards! That's what makes them maniacs.

Jacks shmacks... I'd be smiling at eights.

In the last few hundred (full ring) hands, I've been allin preflop with:
- AKs vs A7o
- AKo vs QJo (and a KK, my bad)
- TT vs 65s
- AKo vs JTo
- AKs vs A7o (a different one)

I suspect one could turn a profit at Party NL25 whilst doing nothing but seeking out these opponents and shoving it all in there.

[sourbeaver]

You put 33% of the money in the pot and here's what your equity looks like with 2 calls (which is likely from these guys).

Js Jd 37.75
Kh 5h 28.27
Ac Qd 33.73

Verdict: factor in the rake and it's a losing play.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
You put 33% of the money in the pot
...
Js Jd 37.75
...
Verdict: factor in the rake and it's a losing play.

[/ QUOTE ]

0.95 * 0.3775 * 3 = 1.076

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]


0.95 * 0.3775 * 3 = 1.076

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to think outside the box here.
Factor in that they will not have such mediocre hands all the time when they play that way PF.

It's much more likely that the combo-range of their hands will have JJ in worst position more times than not.

It's basically a guessing game that is not worth the hassle.

And even if it was a 5% +EV play, you're just asking for a sh*tload of variance. (Note: I still think it's -EV for reasons stated above).

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Factor in that they will not have such mediocre hands all the time when they play that way PF.

It's much more likely that the combo-range of their hands will have JJ in worst position more times than not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mathematics is not a guessing game, young man. Let's give me AA through 88 plus AK. Maniac gets the same range, plus any combination of AKQJ. That's about 10% of hands (BTW) and downright rockish by maniacal standards.

Pokerstove equity, % { Hand Range }
59.6270 % { AA-88, AK }
40.3730 % { AA-88, AK-AJ, KQ-KJ, QJ }

This is a substantial edge, one that grows when gems like K5 are thrown into the mix. Anyone claiming that the guy with a 30% PFR has magically grown queens this time for sure is hallucinating.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You're still not taking into account the fact that there are three people involved in my hand: me, maniacal re-raiser, and maniacal RE-re-raiser.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]

Mathematics is not a guessing game, young man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I never implied it was. I was simply referring to the way I saw that particular situation.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
You're still not taking into account the fact that there are three people involved in my hand: me, maniacal re-raiser, and maniacal RE-re-raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're still assuming their mania is some kind of ruse, something they can switch on and off: "oh, he raised and he reraised, maybe I'll just fall back on 2+2 doctrine for this hand and play it cool."

I put their thought process on something more like "oh, he raised and he reraised, that's a lot more money for me when I push and they both fold. If one of them is crazy enough to call, well hey -- I've still got a king to fall back on."

My other post, in response to sourbeaver, shows that even a slightly smaller range than villain is enough to offer big positive EV.

A maniac's actions are so disconnected from the strength of his hand that trying to analyze his play as a variation of your own is doomed to fail.

[Rocaix]

[ QUOTE ]


I think you're still assuming their mania is some kind of ruse, something they can switch on and off: "oh, he raised and he reraised, maybe I'll just fall back on 2+2 doctrine for this hand and play it cool."

I put their thought process on something more like "oh, he raised and he reraised, that's a lot more money for me when I push and they both fold. If one of them is crazy enough to call, well hey -- I've still got a king to fall back on."

My other post, in response to sourbeaver, shows that even a slightly smaller range than villain is enough to offer big positive EV.

A maniac's actions are so disconnected from the strength of his hand that trying to analyze his play as a variation of your own is doomed to fail.

[/ QUOTE ]

Post more. Consider moving up to the high-stakes forum.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I'm sorry, but you're just wrong. Even maniacs occasionally fold preflop an that is usually when it is raised coming to them. Maniacs are almost always raising pots when they are limped, occasionally re-raising pots when they are raised (usually when they have normal raising hands) and very rarely re-re-raising them. Try poker stoving it again giving the first re-raiser the hand range you gave or perhaps a big looser, the second re-raiser a bit tighter range (take out QJ, etc, just give him a normal loose raising hand range) and then give me JJ against them both (since there is no way they are folding) and let's see the equity.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Try poker stoving it again giving the first re-raiser the hand range you gave or perhaps a big looser, the second re-raiser a bit tighter range (take out QJ, etc, just give him a normal loose raising hand range) and then give me JJ against them both (since there is no way they are folding) and let's see the equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, you have JJ.

Raiser #1 plays pairs 55 and better, any suited ace or king, and any combination of AKQJT, a little over 20% of all hands.

Raiser #2 has AA-99, AK-AJ, or KQ (suited or no) (7.5% of hands).

Your equity is .406, for an ROI of 17% after rake (assuming you all have a full buyin and rake is capped at $60). Theirs is .233 and .361, respectively.

All these numbers make it easy to miss the forest for the trees: I'll quickly agree that making this play with jacks against the wrong opponent is disastrous.

The key thing is to identify true maniacs quickly and accurately, because they're huge cash cows but don't last long enough for you to get hundreds of hands on them. That's why (before my QQ hand) I repopped with a modest holding like AJs OOP: it was an investment to see which kind of maniac I was dealing with. The juiciest ones' stacks are plump, ripe fruit begging to be picked by you. If you wait around for the best 1% of hands or statistical confidence in their PFR numbers, the opportunity will pass you by.

[TheWorstPlayer]

OK, now I think you are making a lot more sense. I hope you see how this post is very different from your previous ones. Thanks for your input.