KK against a good multitabling TAG

[mr pink]

primary villain is a TAG over 2400 hands - good stats of 17/7/2.6 - he's a thinker

other 2 are fishy

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

comments on flop and turn? i considered check/raising the flop but decided against it, maybe you can tell me why and if my reasoning makes any sense.

[admiralfluff]

ughh. What does a 17/7 cap here with that you are ahead of? JJ, and AK. Maybe TT. I wouldn't checkraise at all in this hand. I might bet the flop to try and get him to pay with AK, but once he raises the flop I think check/call. He may keep betting with AK, but will likely fold to your c/r. The only time this line works is when he has JJ, but he has AA, KK, QQ, or AQs more often than JJ here (don't know if you can throw in TT).

[mr pink]

yeah i think i'm ahead of JJ and AK and possibly TT - i wasn't worried about trip queens cause i didn't think he'd cap with AQs, although it is a possibility because of the 2 fish involved. it was also somewhat more unlikely because he raised the flop.

just for clarification - i definitely did not want him to call the check/raise

[Willluck]

most TAGs raise this flop w/ TT, JJ, AK...but...I don't know how many TAGs cap PF with TT or JJ maybe QQ or AA probably since he is a tag it is more likely he has one of these, maybe he has AKs but that is less likely than AA. After he raises you, ya should call down.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
most TAGs raise this flop w/ TT, JJ, AK...but...I don't know how many TAGs cap PF with TT or JJ maybe QQ or AA probably since he is a tag it is more likely he has one of these, maybe he has AKs but that is less likely than AA. After he raises you, ya should call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

so basically you're saying that out of the hands that cap preflop AND raise the flop... you can narrow the range down to AA, KK, AK, JJ, and TT?

[shant]

I don't see a thinking TAG putting you on a Q here and he'll probably fold what you beat and call down what you don't.

This is a great play against a rock who would fold AA though.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
primary villain is a TAG over 2400 hands - good stats of 17/7/2.6 - he's a thinker

other 2 are fishy

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

comments on flop and turn? i considered check/raising the flop but decided against it, maybe you can tell me why and if my reasoning makes any sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that initially I liked it, but now I hate it. After you c/r the turn, what does he pay you with? Nothing that you beat. He's a thinker. He knows a turn c/r is a STRONG move. MAYBE he folds KK, but I doubt it. What if he 3-bets you? He would do that with the other KK just as easily as he would with AA. Are you willing to let it go to a turn 3-bet? Ugh. IMO this is FPS.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a thinking TAG putting you on a Q here and he'll probably fold what you beat and call down what you don't.

This is a great play against a rock who would fold AA though.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldnt mind seeing him fold AK here. i also felt that if he does have AA, this was my only shot to move him off it.

[admiralfluff]

[ QUOTE ]
just for clarification - i definitely did not want him to call the check/raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see any hand here that he could INCORRECTLY fold to a check raise, so if you don't want him to call, I don't think you want to make the check raise.

After the ckeckraise, he might be able to make a call with AK getting implied odds. If you just bet into him though, he couldn't correctly call with AK.

I see him folding TT or JJ here sometimes, folding AK a lot, 3-betting with any Q, and calling down with AA. If you just called the bet, he would likely bet again on river if checked to (I would do this if I didn't think he would cap TT) or maybe call a bet with JJ,TT, and AA on the river. I would probably bet into him on the river if I think he caps TT here.

[rmarotti]

I think if a TAG know mister pink he'll consider layng down AA here. Am I way off?

edit: by "know mr. pink" I don't mean they've been out for coffee several times, I just mean the TAG is aware that mp is a good player.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a thinking TAG putting you on a Q here and he'll probably fold what you beat and call down what you don't.

This is a great play against a rock who would fold AA though.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldnt mind seeing him fold AK here. i also felt that if he does have AA, this was my only shot to move him off it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not folding AA. At least not enough to make this move +EV if he has AA.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if a TAG know mister pink he'll consider layng down AA here. Am I way off?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, yes.

[cold_cash]

I would like just calling the turn then betting the river.

He might fold TT or JJ to your check-raise, but he also might reluctantly call a river bet with them.

[admiralfluff]

I would think, he probably has the other AA, or has KK and wants me to fold AA.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that initially I liked it, but now I hate it. After you c/r the turn, what does he pay you with? Nothing that you beat. He's a thinker. He knows a turn c/r is a STRONG move. MAYBE he folds KK, but I doubt it. What if he 3-bets you? He would do that with the other KK just as easily as he would with AA. Are you willing to let it go to a turn 3-bet? Ugh. IMO this is FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i'm willing to drop it to a turn 3-bet. if he 3-bets me on the turn, there isn't much i can beat. you think AA 3-bets that turn after the check/raise? i guess it's possible but i don't think it'll happen that often.

the whole reason for the check/raise was for him to fold. i didnt care what he paid off with on the river since the pot was already so big.

[rmarotti]

Hmmmmmm. I'm not sure what I think about that. I'm a LAG and I think I might think about laying AA down here, but you may be right. This hand is tough, but I don't think mp is displaying horrible FPS here, especialy if he can lay down to a 3bet.

[mr pink]

folding to a river raise?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought that initially I liked it, but now I hate it. After you c/r the turn, what does he pay you with? Nothing that you beat. He's a thinker. He knows a turn c/r is a STRONG move. MAYBE he folds KK, but I doubt it. What if he 3-bets you? He would do that with the other KK just as easily as he would with AA. Are you willing to let it go to a turn 3-bet? Ugh. IMO this is FPS.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i'm willing to drop it to a turn 3-bet. if he 3-bets me on the turn, there isn't much i can beat. you think AA 3-bets that turn after the check/raise? i guess it's possible but i don't think it'll happen that often.

the whole reason for the check/raise was for him to fold. i didnt care what he paid off with on the river since the pot was already so big.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, but if he just calls and a brick hits, what do you do? You've committed 2 bb by c/ring. Do you bet the river? Do you check/call? Now we are at 3-BB's. I think your hand has SD value. I'd get there cheaply.

FWIW, I really think that you overestimate the amount of time that he folds AA here.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if a TAG know mister pink he'll consider layng down AA here. Am I way off?

edit: by "know mr. pink" I don't mean they've been out for coffee several times, I just mean the TAG is aware that mp is a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

for the record, i hadn't been getting out of line at all (for a change:p)

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
He might fold TT or JJ to your check-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this a bad thing?

[rmarotti]

Yes.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: by "know mr. pink" I don't mean they've been out for coffee several times, I just mean the TAG is aware that mp is a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this makes it LESS likely that he mucks AA or KK. He knows Mr. P is a sneaky bastard, thus he knows Mr. P might try some sneaky BS. Villain says "If you've got the Q, good for you, but I'm looking your ass up."

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]

OK, but if he just calls and a brick hits, what do you do? You've committed 2 bb by c/ring. Do you bet the river? Do you check/call? Now we are at 3-BB's. I think your hand has SD value. I'd get there cheaply.


[/ QUOTE ]

i think i'd be inclined to bet the river after going all out on the turn, which is another reason i'm reconsidering this line.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I really think that you overestimate the amount of time that he folds AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

how often does he have to muck it for this play to be +EV ?

i suck at EV calculations so would anyone like to help out?

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I really think that you overestimate the amount of time that he folds AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I don't mind him drawing to 3 outs if he has AK and I'd rather he keep betting JJ and TT also.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]


how often does he have to muck it for this play to be +EV ?

i suck at EV calculations so would anyone like to help out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I do too, but I'd bet you $1 that it is negative.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He might fold TT or JJ to your check-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it is, which is why I said I like just calling instead.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I do too, but I'd bet you $1 that it is negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're on.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do too, but I'd bet you $1 that it is negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a welcher.

When you c/r there is basicaly 12BB in there. When he calls, I think we can assume your goose is cooked. Let's also assume that you fold to a river bet or turn 3-bet.

When he calls, you lose 2 BB. When he folds, you win 12BB. Looks to me like he would need to fold 1 out of every 7 to have this make you money. I'm sure I have oversimplified this a bit, but I think you lose.

[admiralfluff]

You also have to account for all of the times when he has JJ or TT, and he folds to your check raise when you don't want him to. You only want him to fold AA here, everything else you want t o see a call.

If he always had AA, this play might be arguable, but as it is, I think its losing money. (Unless he folds AA every time he has it here).

[meep_42]

I don't like it. You're crushed here or have him drawing to 2 or 3 outs. (Well, I suppose it's possible he has exactly AKd) Why bother with the raise, then?

On the river, he may call you with an unimproved AK, extra bet for you -- he's only got to do that 1 in 20 times to make this terrible. He's going to fold JJ here, which would pay you off on the river as well. He's not going to fold KK or AA here a great majority of the time, so I don't think there's value from that.

In short - he'll fold the hands he should, even those that would pay off to see a showdown, and he'll stay in with the hands that beat you. Seems like a no-win to me.

-d

[StellarWind]

I can't believe people are actually suggesting that AA might fold /images/graemlins/shocked.gif.

I think AA(6), QQ(1), and AQ(8) outrank AK(8) and JJ(6). In particular AA (or KK) is the one hand that I expect him to almost always play this way. All of the rest have question marks on the preflop cap (AK, AQ, JJ), flop raise (AQ, QQ, AK), or turn bet (AK).

The turn raise is poor because you are putting in extra action when you aren't the favorite and could easily be reraised or raised on the river. BTW this pot is big and laying down KK at any point should not be on the table.

[ErrantNight]

he would have to fold it sometimes in order for there to even be a calculation.

since villain isn't folding AA, i'm not sure why the conversation would drift this way.

[mr pink]

good discussion on this thread. thanks guys, i think feel like i learned a lot here.

in case you're interested - villain folded to the turn check/raise.

[DocMartin]

ok, so I am assuming you got him to tell you what he had so we know what you got him to lay down. C'mon, quit leaving us hanging.

How would you play this situation if it came up again? It looks more like JJ or AK (being all results oriented), think you could have squeezed some more bets out of him?

I ask because I play this hand the same way (try to take the pot down as soon as I can, right or wrong) and it is always more delicate when you are up against a tough opponent.

[mr pink]

i have no clue what he had. sorry, i wish i did. it'd be sweet if he laid down AA.

i'm still not sure whether it might be worth that 1 BB just to try and take it down regardless of whether or not you can squeeze another couple bets out of JJ or AK. i think a lot of it depends on how often he'll fold AA (which is the only hand you technically want him to fold) but it seems from others on here that he doesnt fold AA often enough for this to be +EV. i'm still not sure though.

fwiw, villain thought for a LONG time before he finally folded.