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View Full Version : Odds of flopping trips ?


theredpill5
04-09-2005, 10:51 PM
Ok. Here is an example of why I'm having trouble with .10/.25 NL.

I changed my game a bit tonight and took home some good $$$ but I would appreciate an expert player giving me some analysis on this hand. The why kind of alludes me . Why did I call to the river and etc etc. I was 3 tabling so no reads on this guy other than he had nearly a full buy-in. And he had a dumb name.

Hero has $20 in SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
.10/.25 NL

Limped around to me

I raise to $2
MP calls
LP calls

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif pot=8
I bet $4
Mp calls
LP folds

Turn: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet $5
Mp raises to $10
Hero calls

River: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets $5 All-in
MP calls

MP shows T/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif
WTF

This is why I have trouble at these stakes. I'm trying to think more about the long run than one single hand at a time and tonight it certainly help me find my balls. I doubled up with QQ on another table earlier. I just wonder if I'm good enough to play 3 tables at one time. I think I should go down to 2.

Let me know how you think I played it. I probably should have pushed all-in on the turn.

MP said that he put me on AK ....ace high and that was the reason he called to the river. What do you think ? I need to be thinking what MP is thinking of me ? MP thinks I'm weak therefore I call his raise, etc.

swolfe
04-10-2005, 12:00 AM
why are you underbetting the pot so much?

theredpill5
04-10-2005, 12:44 AM
Half pot bet. Gives improper odds for a flush draw and gauges where I'm at. Turn bet is too small, I admit. Not sure why I bet so small there. He had 5 outs, though. 8 to 1 and he definitely wasn't getting it.

Do you think someone with trips would raise that $4 bet on the flop or just call ? What about the turn. He minimum raised my $5 bet. Ideas ? Am I thinking about this all wrong ?

theredpill5
04-10-2005, 05:53 PM
So what are the odds of someone flopping trips ? Where can I find these odds ? thanks

wegs the wegs
04-10-2005, 06:01 PM
Well flopping trips with a pocket pair is 8:1 and flopping trips with unpaired cards is something like 54:1

Trainwreck
04-11-2005, 04:28 AM
My thinking is, he raised YOU on the turn:

Because he put you on a hand he could beat, to represent a Q, and/or possibly for a free showdown which you wisely didn't give him.

Poker is gambling and looks like you both took your shots on that hand, well done!

1 for you, 0 for opponent.

As for you pushing on the turn, if you had went in all for $15 then, he would have likely folded, he tried to steal the pot with a reraise, failed, and you're AI river bet took control away from him, just thankfully his hand was weak.

I think the fact he DIDN'T put you to the test on HIS turn raise might have been a tell that he wasn't strong, why let YOU have all of $5 left?

>TW<

Here's a listing of odds I quickly found:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=9366&

and a lengthy discussion afterwards.