KINGS FROM HELL

[dark_horse]

Both of these hands occurred within 20 minutes of each other. Please rate my play as I go jump out the window.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: (7 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10 BB

[tijean]

I assume you're jumping out the window because you realize both folds were a mistake.

Hand 1: You probably lose here, but I look him up anyway.

Hand 2: What's your screenname on Party? I'm gonna be clearing the Empire bonus this weekend, and I want to play at your table. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Yobz]

I think I call both down, the second is based more off reads. If hes passive, I think you played it fine...I wouldnt fold the first hand closing the action for 1 more bet (even though your probably beat)

[Shillx]

I think I call both down, the second is based more off reads.

I don't call the river raise in hand one.

The second hand is more interesting because the single most scary card came on the turn (the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif). If there ever was a time to bluff at a pot, this would be it. So yeah a read would really help us here.

Brad

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I call both down, the second is based more off reads.

I don't call the river raise in hand one.

The second hand is more interesting because the single most scary card came on the turn (the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif). If there ever was a time to bluff at a pot, this would be it. So yeah a read would really help us here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]


I believe that your advice in general is usually pretty good, so will you explain to me why I believe the 2nd fold is correct? The most likely hand(s!) have both completed. Top pair just hit his 5 outer and the guy just calling on the flop (good indicator of a draw) has just woke up and started betting, how can Kings be good here? Two questions:

1.) Can you fold the river here with these odds? I didn't think it was even possible to EVER fold to one more bet in this instance after investing all that monry. SO if you will explain to me why you fold on the river to a raise here (with those odds) I could probably plug a leak.

2.) Why pay off the second hand? What likely hands are you beating here?

[cold_cash]

Against a certain type of opponent, (a type that actually represents a fairly large percentage of the online poker population), I don't have a problem with either of these hands.

[cold_cash]

I think Shill is talking about our opponent bluffing at the pot in hand 2.

(Meaning if our opponent is thinking, he knows this is a great card to bluff at, making a calldown a decent course of action for us in that situation. If our opponent is a typical dillrod, folding is probably best -- which is probably the more likely scenario.)

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[aK13]

For the second one, a read is crucial here. I posted a similar hand where I have AA instead.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2103557&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1&amp;vc=1#Post2103557

[Dave G.]

Yes, hand 2 is marginal and a read would be good. Only 3 people saw the flop. The appearance of the 2nd queen on the turn means it's quite unlikely that the other two actually have a queen themselves. The extra potential for losing to a flush might make this a fold, but if your opponent is tricky you could be making a sucker play.

This is even more true if you routinely do the bet-fold thing on a scare card as you did here. Good opponents will notice this and they'll take shots at you. This is the perfect time for a bluff.

[Malachii]

I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you should be more inclined to call down in this spot. People love to bluff this ish and you should be savvy enough to recognize this pattern. You also have to ask yourself..."Would this guy raise top pair on the flop?"

Brad

Edit: I made it seem like you should call this hand down when he raises the scare card. I mean that you should be more inclined to call down a scare card then a non-scare card with all other things being equal.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concern when the pot is multiway with many players seeing the flop, but when only 2 opponents see the flop, it's not nearly as bad.

Once the turn shows the second queen, 2 villains will only have one queen between them about 16% of the time. That means, 84% of the time your overpair is good. Which means that you are folding incorrectly 84% of the time.

Yes you'll occasionally run into someone who just made trips, but this will be the exception not the rule.

Of course, if the opponent is super passive then you should be very concerned, but generally when it's short handed, the board pairing is not a great disaster. Infact it might even help you by counterfeiting a two pair hand.

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you should call down in this spot. People love to bluff this ish and you should be savvy enough to recognize this pattern. You also have to ask yourself..."Would this guy raise top pair on the flop?"

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

At these limits, no one is betting that scare card after all the flop action often enough to show a profit in paying this off. Also, you have not explained why you fold the first hand to just one more bet getting 10-1 on the river?

[GrandmaStabone]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold the second one in a split second unless I knew him to be tricky. The top card on the board pairing is the absolute worst thing that can happen to an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concern when the pot is multiway with many players seeing the flop, but when only 2 opponents see the flop, it's not nearly as bad.

Once the turn shows the second queen, 2 villains will only have one queen between them about 16% of the time. That means, 84% of the time your overpair is good. Which means that you are folding incorrectly 84% of the time.

Yes you'll occasionally run into someone who just made trips, but this will be the exception not the rule.

Of course, if the opponent is super passive then you should be very concerned, but generally when it's short handed, the board pairing is not a great disaster. Infact it might even help you by counterfeiting a two pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not JUST the fact that the top pair paired, but it also completed the flush draw.

[Dave G.]

Yes I realise this, I was just responding to the "top card pairing" post. I know the flush potential makes this considerably worse. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Malachii]

I don't know man. Yes, he could be bluffing. But he called three cold, so it seems fair to assume that he's not a very strong player. I would call down against a player who I thought capable of making that kind of move, but that would be the exception rather than the rule.

[Shillx]

Yeah but that doesn't tell the entire story. You also have to look at the size of the pot. We are getting 10:1 to call the turn raise here...

A) Even if he flipped up a flush we would still call the turn bet (unless his flush contains the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif).

B) If he has a queen we are screwed but we have to figure out if he would/wouldn't raise the flop with a queen to determine how likely it is that he has a queen.

C) He could be on a stone bluff and we are getting 5.5:1 to call her down. If the villian is bluffing 16% of the time we will show a profit just by snapping off bluffs (not to mention the times that we outdraw him). Of course if he is bluffing with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif we need to be getting 4.2:1 to calldown (and he won't always have a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in his hand). So if he is raising with a hand like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif as little as 20% of the time we show a profit by paying off.

Brad

[tijean]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not JUST the fact that the top pair paired, but it also completed the flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Which makes it even more bluffable. You're assuming villain has a Q, or 2 diamonds. What if he has Ax - where the A is a diamond and the x isn't a Q? Then the raise is only a semi-bluff, and even LPPs know how to do that.

I'm not suggesting a 3-bet here, but folding is a major mistake.

[Malachii]

How'd you get the 84% figure? I'm not sure how accurate it is because Villian had a pot that was raised and reraised infront of him, yet he still chose to play his cards. This allows us to make some assumptions about the texture of his hand.

Specifically, it's very unlikely that he would be calling with two cards lower than a ten. That gives him 4 tens, 4 jacks, 2 queens, 2 kings, and 4 aces in his possible holding. So I'd say that the probability that he's holding a queen are considerably higher than your estimate. We could narrow it down further when he called the bet on the flop, but I don't really want to invest the energy. Suffice it to say that given that both of these villians are playing in a raised/reraised pot, your calculations have to take that into consideration.

I'm not saying you should always fold an overpair when the top card pairs. It's a very read dependent situation. But, I think Hero played the turn fine. He bet so as to not allow a free card that could potentially beat him, and then folded when the non tricky opponent raised him.

[tijean]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't call the river raise in hand one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I understand this. But I like I said, I look him up anyway. If I'm gonna lose this hand anyway, I want to know why - Did he misplay the A on the flop? Did he slowplay the flush? Did he suckout the str8? This might be a major -EV move at higher limits, but at 1/2 I think the extra BB buys me enough ammunition to take this guy later.

[Dave G.]

It's difficult to narrow COs holdings down here because he originally only limped. Important distinction, it was raised behind him. At no point did he cold call.

That could mean any number of things. It came back to him 3-bet which he is more likely to call having put money in already, but it doesn't necessarily mean cards 10 or higher.

If he's a bad player it could be as bad as ace-rag. It might be a suited connector, a pocket pair, or even just suited cards. Conversly, if he's a good player, almost any hand with a Q in it that he is thinking of playing from the CO should be raised, not limped.

I could understand your logic if we were talking about an Ace here but there's just no way to narrow his holding down to any meaningful result, even if we knew a little bit about him (we don't know anything here).

The only meaningful result we can get is the probability that he was dealt a queen to begin with. After that, it comes down to the guessing game (reads). This is calculated with the usual probability calculation taking into account the number of unseen cards and the number of queens remaining.

[Malachii]

You're right. I misread the preflop line. And I can't really argue with your conclusion given that he did initially limp.

&lt;-- Feels stupid right now. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[FreakDaddy]

Reads on both these hands would be helpful.
Hand 1 - That's a tough laydown, but I think I do the same here. I'm assuming you're against a thinking opponent. With a UTG call and an MP raise, I'm placing button on some kind of AQs, maybe even AJs,AQo or KQs which would be a stretch considering your cards. Considering how it was played I'm leaning towards the improbable KQs as button hits his flush draw. I have hard time believing he's calling all this way with a gutshot, but you've offered no reads here. Either way, I think it's more than 90% of the time you're behind against a thinking player here.

Hand 2 - With no reads this is another tough hand. It's quite believable though that CO called with some kind of high broadway or made his trips. If he did, he badly misplayed the hand. He probably would have raised with high pairs pre-flop so we can scratch that and he would have raised with high suited cards, so most likely he was holding QJs, KQo, or medium pocket pair, in this case 77 (probable against early limpers before him). Considering all this, if he wasn't a good player I'd fold here. If he was a good player I'd call down. Counter-intuitive? I hope not.