$33 Level 5 hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1720)
Hero (t2260)
UTG (t55)
MP (t1710)
Button (t2255)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t55 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t2255 (All-In)</font>, Hero....

[The Yugoslavian]

That's a helluva level 5 hand.....those blinds are MONSTERS!!!

Yugoslav
Bwahahahahaha!

[Scuba Chuck]

given the fact that villain pushed allin, vs just calling, I feel confident he doesn't have AA/KK and perhaps QQ. So he either has a middle pair, or a worse two card combo.

Even given this knowledge, I still don't think I can call this.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
given the fact that villain pushed allin, vs just calling, I feel confident he doesn't have AA/KK and perhaps QQ. So he either has a middle pair, or a worse two card combo.

Even given this knowledge, I still don't think I can call this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'll give you one chance to guess what I voted, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav
Bwahahahahahaha!

[Irieguy]

"Here's an uncashed check for $10,000."
-Lacey Underall

"Keep it."
-Ty Webb

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

We don't need any caddy comments out of you.

Scuba
lol

[ilya]

This hand is read-dependent. For example I believe folding would be a definite error against someone like Strassa.

Even against a more selective player a call may be correct. For example, if villain's range is
AA-22, AKs-A5s, KQs-K6s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, 98s-97s, 87s, AKo-A8o, KQo-K8o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o,
calling and folding are essentially equivalent in the ICM's eyes. Nor is there any reason I can see to go against ICM here. So unless I thought the villain was considerably tighter than this, I would call to speed things along.

It also depends on how tight the players to your left are. It doesn't look like a great FE situation though because they only have 4xBB or so and may feel like they have to take a stand soon. Nor are they likely to think they can wait each other out -- their stacks are almost identical.

I voted "call."

[ChuckNorris]

Why fold? The button should be raising with a lot of hands, of which AQo is behind only a few. I feel like I'm missing something here..

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This is somewhat read-dependent. For example I believe I call would be correct against someone like Strassa.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm laughing out loud.

The more I think about this hand, the more I'm leaning towards a call, but not liking it. I'm pretty sure I let myself get confused by the fact that two players were in the pot, when shorty really "doesn't exist."

This just comes down to calling standards. So that being said, I either dominate villain, or I'm slightly behind. (unless he has AA/KK/AK of course).

Edit: I'm changing my answer. This is a call. I think folding here is weak/tight. If mr shorty had any sort of significance to his stacksize, I'd feel fine folding here, but that's not the case.

Scuba

[ilya]

Well it's close. ICM wants you to be at least 59% or so. So, you are golden against a random hand. Against most players I'm guessing it's close enough that it doesn't matter much one way or the other. Against someone you know is tight it's a definite fold, not just because you're probably not 59% but also because it'll be easier to steal blinds on subsequent hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it's close. ICM wants you to be at least 59% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this hand rank about 59% against Eastbay's typical pushing hands?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Why fold? The button should be raising with a lot of hands, of which AQo is behind only a few. I feel like I'm missing something here..

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold because you can push next hand (and/or the next and/or the next and/or the next) rather than call.

Yugoslav
Who hates uncashed checks....

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well it's close. ICM wants you to be at least 59% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this hand rank about 59% against Eastbay's typical pushing hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's only 55% against "aces except A6o-A20, all pairs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs" and 58% against "any ace, any pair," but I have a hard time believing many buttons are that tight in that spot.

i always thought that those hand groups were typical villain calling hands and the chart's main purpose was to help decide when to push, not when to call.

[Irieguy]

This hand isn't just about where you rate against the pusher's likely holdings.

Really, the most important consideration is how this SNG is going to play for the subsequent few hands. There is instrinsic value in your chip position because of the blind:stack ratios and this value is not weighted in ICM calculations.

You don't need to race for first right now because you are likely to be doing that in 5 hands anyways... but in 5 hands when you race for first, if you lose you get second.

Irieguy

[ilya]

If the button is tight, I agree. In that case, I think it's a fold anyway. However, if the button is loose, I don't think you have such an FE edge on later hands that you can afford to pass up this +$EV situation. 1, the two medium stacks have only about 4xbb each and may feel they have to take a stand soon. 2, neither of them is likely to think he can outwait the other, since their stacks are almost identical. 3, if the button is loose, he's gonna keep raising ...so no free blinds for you, and some lost stealing opporunities.

I accept that I may be wrong, but it just doesn't seem like a good fold to me.

Don't tell me you would fold AK or AQs!

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
If the button is tight, I agree. In that case, I think it's a fold anyway. However, if the button is loose, I don't think you have such an FE edge on later hands that you can afford to pass up this +$EV situation. 1, the two medium stacks have only about 4xbb each and may feel they have to take a stand soon. 2, neither of them is likely to think he can outwait the other, since their stacks are almost identical. 3, if the button is loose, he's gonna keep raising ...so no free blinds for you, and some lost stealing opporunities.

I accept that I may be wrong, but it just doesn't seem like a good fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a big difference between an aggressive/loose button and a passive/loose button. He has not demonstrated any interest in calling your raises....hell, there is no indication that he likes to push a lot.

If he is either kind of loose or kind of aggressive, there is a good chance you can call him with some similarly ahead of two cards hands, when you're in second - rather than in third - place.

Also, $EV is being hemorraged here in future hands as *you're* the one playing non-exploitable poker (*not* your opponents). You can't capture it if you're out. I want to have a good idea I'm ahead by a significant amount here to call.

Yugoslav
PS If button was strassa...I'd call...but not just b/c he's liable to play any two here.
PPS I guarantee you the button is *nothing* close to strassa.

[ilya]

I am basically just not convinced by these arguments. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I dunno, it just seems to me like you guys are trying to convince yourself to fold. I understand that folding is sublime and all but....calling is funner!

[Irieguy]

Well, if you call you will be giving free $EV to the two 1700 chip dudes. If you fold, you will be giving free $EV to the big stack.

One of those two situations is clearly better, no? How much better? I think this is something that is very difficult to quantify in SNG bubble play.

It's close, and I usually call here. But I think I'm wrong when I call, and I'm trying to nail down why I'm wrong.

Irieguy

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you call you will be giving free $EV to the two 1700 chip dudes. If you fold, you will be giving free $EV to the big stack.

One of those two situations is clearly better, no? How much better? I think this is something that is very difficult to quantify in SNG bubble play.

It's close, and I usually call here. But I think I'm wrong when I call, and I'm trying to nail down why I'm wrong.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm glad we agree that it's close. AQo is definitely the cutoff non-pair hand for me here. I've been arguing for calling with more vehemence than I really feel, that's for sure.

That's a good point about bleeding off $EV to medium stacks vs. bleeding it to the big stack. However I think you're cleverly twisting the issue a little bit. I mean, it's not exactly accurate to say we're bleeding off $EV to the big stack when we fold, when it's only by virtue of our fold that Button becomes the big stack in the first place.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you call you will be giving free $EV to the two 1700 chip dudes. If you fold, you will be giving free $EV to the big stack.

One of those two situations is clearly better, no? How much better? I think this is something that is very difficult to quantify in SNG bubble play.

It's close, and I usually call here. But I think I'm wrong when I call, and I'm trying to nail down why I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted fold. But there are many people - actually probably the majority of SNG players - against whom this is a call. It really depends on the guy's exact range AND your play with a big stack AND HIS play with a big stack.

If he is LAGgy it is a much better call because when he accidentally starts playing correctly, he's more trouble than he's worth and I'd rather just take the flip now.

[microbet]

If you don't have a read it is a CLEAR FOLD.

Most players don't like betting 2000+ chips. He will have a very tight range of hands and most likely it is a PP that is afraid of seeing a higher card.

Now if Villian has been pushing every other hand and typing 'holla' or '3uo' or something like that, then it is a clear call.

[johnnybeef]

i fold, but i won't be happy about it. you will find a better spot to accumulate chips with some patience.

johnny

ps: caddyshack quotes are ALWAYS welcome.

[TheCat]

I see where you are coming from but AQ is just too big a hand to fold here. Button is supposed to be stealing here and could push with any two. The only holdings you are big dog to are AK,AA,KK,QQ.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't need to race for first right now because you are likely to be doing that in 5 hands anyways... but in 5 hands when you race for first, if you lose you get second.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ireguy you have taught me alot in the past 6 months I've been lurking/posting here. And I'm so happy that now when I say an answer out loud, I read it in your post.

There is a Lorinda post that explains this very well. Sometimes you don't want to coinflip with the other big stack when there are two stacks that are in trouble on the bubble. Patience is still one of the most important parts of poker.

[swarm]

So you only have 1860 after posting your BB correct?

Initial gut is fold but with blinds this big you may regret it. Button doesn't want a call, hence the push. My guess would be mid pocket pair, so your staring at a coinflip. Even if you call and he has KJ or some crap like that you aren't that big of favorite. How many times have I loss to K5off spiking his 5 on a ragged board when I call a blind steal?

There are Reasons to call:

So in effect if you fold you are even with the other 2 stacks in the race for the bubble. Plus if Button takes this hand down uncontested he is going to have a lot of clout to continue stealing blinds. However the blinds are huge at this point...

If Button has been pushing continously... I call. If Button has been tight... I fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it's close. ICM wants you to be at least 59% or so.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Doesn't this hand rank about 59% against Eastbay's typical pushing hands?


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it's only 55% against "aces except A6o-A20, all pairs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs" and 58% against "any ace, any pair," but I have a hard time believing many buttons are that tight in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about we give villain some credit, and assume he will just call vs push with hands like AA or KK. Essentially, I'm suggesting that you remove those two hands from the range. How does your math work then? I'm guessing you'll be at 59% by then.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I see where you are coming from but AQ is just too big a hand to fold here. Button is supposed to be stealing here and could push with any two. The only holdings you are big dog to are AK,AA,KK,QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against an average $33 player (who has made it this far) I disagree. However, vs. a strassa or raptor (and frankly many other known villians) it's a clear call IMO.

AQ certainly is not that big a hand. It's surely some sort of favorite here but vs. most villians I think your future hands can be as profitable and/or more so (plus vs. most villians he is not pushing any two).

It's not *just* about calling when you feel you have a slight edge, it's about recognizing when the blinds are high and you still have plenty of FE, you can prolong the window where you can steal those chips. Not all $33 players are savvy enough to play non-exploitable strategy here.....but you should be.

There are other factors that come into play for sure such as how much you've already been pushing and how well you've pegged your opponents at this stage of the game. Since we are not privy to any table feel or extra knowledge, I would hope I'd fold here...if I called, I'd hope it was because I truly could justify it given my opposition reads...

Yugoslav

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well it's close. ICM wants you to be at least 59% or so.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Doesn't this hand rank about 59% against Eastbay's typical pushing hands?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



it's only 55% against "aces except A6o-A20, all pairs, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs" and 58% against "any ace, any pair," but I have a hard time believing many buttons are that tight in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about we give villain some credit, and assume he will just call vs push with hands like AA or KK. Essentially, I'm suggesting that you remove those two hands from the range. How does your math work then? I'm guessing you'll be at 59% by then.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I get 53.5% against A7+,PPs,KQs-KTs,QJs.
Then taking AA and KK out I get 54.6%.

I agree with taking out AA and KK, but with no read I don't put any of the K hands in there or below AJ or PP below 66. Then you are 46%.

I know that is a narrow range, but without a read this is one of the players that calls us morons when we push with AT. Maybe the range is a little narrow, but no way you are getting to 59% against most players.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ certainly is not that big a hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, at this stage, how small a hand is it then?

[NegativeEV]

This hand is generating so much discussion because it matches a probable small edge now (calling) vs. a perceived future edge given hero's skill/knowledge advantage. Whether hero has an edge now with the call is dependent upon assumptions of villian's hand range (as this thread has illustrated), but let's assume there is a slight ICM/math edge for a call. When hero evaluates whether to take this edge, they are considering their future potential edges driven by their skill/knowledge advantage. When hero has evidence that this later advantage is slight, they should be more inclined to take this current edge.

In this case, Hero should have enough information to know whether they have a signficant advantage over the field for remaining bubble play (i.e. other players too tight or make bad calls/decisions). This is what should drive the decision to call or fold here. Interestingly, if Hero does NOT have a large skill advantage on the bubble, his reasons to call are twofold- first villian's range of hands widens (so AQ is stronger) and second, hero will not be the only player implementing the proper strategy.

This hand/situation reminds me of a bubble situation I was in with stupidsucker a while back in a $33. With 4 left, the stacks were fairly even with blinds 150/300. Our positions had me on the button when SS was BB and SS on the button when I was BB. Early in this bubble play, I pushed from the button, SB folded, and SS folded his BB after a few seconds of thought. He later mentioned that he folded AQ there. A few orbits later, stacks were still even, and it was pretty evident that the other two players in the game had a pretty decent understanding of proper bubble play (my and sucker's advantage was slight). SS again picked up AQ and was facing an all-in raise. He called. I thought both of the sucker's plays with AQ were correct given the situation.

[The Yugoslavian]

NegativeEV,

Very nice post. I think this is all spot on and your antecdote with StupidSucker demonstrates it perfectly.

Yugoslav

[JasonP530]

You may be wrong because youre gambling with no fold equity. Though the blinds are huge, you probabbly assume the most amount of risk by calling here as opposed to waiting for another hand to move in/other to go broke. It seems right to call because you have the best hand, the blinds are big, and its a very good hand(also one unlikely to be dominated). If youre looking for a reason, that could be it. I still dont know if its right to call or fold...