Is this a bad semibluff?

[SNOWBALL138]

***** Hand History for Game 1830295906 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:10924679 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Friday, April 01, 22:36:37 EDT 2005
Table Table 11535 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 9: sykotik489 ( $950 )
Seat 5: KidCirhosis ( $800 )
Seat 8: DocPoker ( $900 )
Seat 6: badgrandpa1 ( $800 )
Seat 10: RedBloch ( $775 )
Seat 7: Sugar7878 ( $725 )
Seat 1: rbwilso1 ( $785 )
Seat 4: kockring1 ( $785 )
Seat 2: eyetwenty ( $800 )
Seat 3: WEAVER29 ( $680 )
Trny:10924679 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RedBloch [ Ac Kc ]
>You have options at Table 35318 Table!.
WEAVER29 folds.
kockring1 folds.
>You have options at Table 35318 Table!.
KidCirhosis folds.
badgrandpa1 folds.
Sugar7878 folds.
DocPoker calls [15].
sykotik489 folds.
RedBloch raises [70].
rbwilso1 calls [60].
eyetwenty folds.
DocPoker calls [55].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 9c, 7c ]
rbwilso1 checks.
DocPoker checks.
RedBloch is all-In [705]
rbwilso1 folds.
DocPoker folds.
RedBloch does not show cards.
RedBloch wins 930 chips
>You have options at Table 35318 Table!.

[kyro]

Meh, I don't think it's the worst thing you could have done. I probably would have fired off about a 100-150 bet, and then pushed the turn if I felt like it.

[Benoit]

no, you bet way too much for that pot.

[lastchance]

No, not at all. I think betting out 100 is pretty bad cuz it leaves you open to getting raised all-in, and at that point, calling is good.

If you have 100 to 200 chips more, I think I make the standard bet, but right now, getting all-in and not having to call all-in is good.

[Benoit]

No the problem is betting that much will only be called by someone who is ahead. He is betting $705 to win $225. If someone else has two pair or trips he is screwed and he didn't even get any close to the proper pot odds.

Hey if you want to risk your whole stack on a small pot be my guest. Players like you make protecting my made hand pay off.

[lastchance]

The guy's going to be behind anyway, especially when you're raised and have to call. If the guy has 2p or a set, you're both going to wind up all-in anyway. You want him to laydown top pair and middle pair here. That's why you push.

[SNOWBALL138]

I would have like to have raised all-in to a bet. Pushing here wins a medium small pot big risks my whole stack. I wouldn't really want to check this hand on the flop because that pits me at risk to a bluff/value bet on the turn. If I don't hit on the turn, then I'm more than a 2-1 dog to hit on the river, and so I'm no longer in a comfortable position to push.

Of course, I'm gonna hit on the turn about 1/3 of the time, so checking isn't the worst thing in the world.

I can't really figure out what I should do in these spots. If the pot was bigger, its a clear push, and if the pot was smaller, its a clear check. With a mediumish pot like this, I don't really know what to do.

[Texas Pete]

I agree. I would bet half the pot. Both will fold often enough to make that breakeven in the long run. And, if one of them pushes they can have it. However, there are many happy situations which come up much more often. You could get another ace/king/club drawing dead against you and win a much bigger pot. You could also have a pair calling you all the way and you hit your hand.

[Benoit]

How can you think a flush draw is worth enough to ignore pot odds? We're not talking about two monster hands butting heads. Against a set he has 35% chance to win with a flush after the flop, so that means the set has 65% chance to win. 35% is not a monster hand or a monster draw!

BTW if someone has a middle pair, you don't need to bet over 3 times the pot to get them to fold. Actually, if I had middle or top pair and someone goes all in ahead of me with a flush draw on the board, I would probably call. Funny because a pot sized bet would probably get me to fold. Ask yourself why would opponent not want to get paid of with a smaller bet? The all in move makes it more likely this is a semi bluff and I'm going to double up when you miss.

[lastchance]

This is a $10+1, and no one has any idea you know how to play poker at all.

The thing here is, I really don't want to get raised and not be able to see the turn and the river. At the same time, there's a big chance that I can take this sizable pot down right now.

There's t225 in the pot. Leading out is t100 chips, leaving you with t605. t325 in the pot at that point.

If someone raises all-in, you're going to be calling t605 into a pot of t1030 already.

I can't laydown two overs and the nut flush draw there. Can you?

Betting t100-t150 at the $10+1 here is the same as betting all-in, except moving in can get people to fold middle pair. The pot is a fourth of your stack. That's pretty sizable.

[Benoit]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone raises all-in, you're going to be calling t605 into a pot of t1030 already.

I can't laydown two overs and the nut flush draw there. Can you?

[/ QUOTE ]

At least by leading out you have a better idea of where you stand if reraised. Then yes, if my two overs are clear outs I would call with 1.7 to 1 pot odds, but the problem is if you're against a set, two pair, or top pair w/ ace/king kicker.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a set he has 35% chance to win with a flush after the flop, so that means the set has 65% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you don't use that math to make many of your flush draw considerations.

[lastchance]

Against pairs where both your overs are good, you're 53%.
Against KK, you're 45%.
Against A9/K9 you're 45%.
Against AA, you're 35%.
Against two pair, you're 35%.
Against a set, you're 25%.

And remember, t600 into a pot of about t1000.

So, you need about 37% to win. I'm a bit too lazy to do ICM, though I'd say 40% is a ballpark figure.

Any bet pretty much pot-commits you into calling, IMHO. That's why I move in.

[spock86]

Generally speaking strong moves mean weak hands. When you bet about 5x the size of the pot it makes me wonder why you would bet that high if u want me to call.

Also lets say he has trips (really the only hand that will call your overbet). Even if u hit ur flush there are 10 outs for the board to pair on the river and give him a full boat. Smoking u.

[lastchance]

You have ace high. You WANT those guys to fold. This is not a value bet. This is a semibluff. Note the key word "Bluff." If you are only calling with trips here, that is a very, very, very good thing, as you are folding many coinflips, and 2p + AA, which we really want you to fold here.

This isn't about the hands, a set, or two pair, this is about middle pair, Top pair weak kicker, and anything else that you might have which is ahead on the flop that you will fold for all-in raise, but not t150.

[SNOWBALL138]

Do you ever steal blinds? This seems like basically the same thing.

How often am I going to run into a set here? Lets assume that both players hold pocket pairs.

The odds against running into a set are then (7.5/8.5) (7.5/8.5)= 74/89. So, I'm gonna run into at least one set 15 times for ever 74 times. Thats almost 5-1 against.

Which means that five times I win the pot, and sometimes I win it even though I get called.

Thats assuming they both have pocket pairs, which isn't likely.

Listen, even if I never get called by a bad hand here, my play shows a profit.

My play shows more of a profit if we add in the times that I get called by JJ, QQ, TPGK.

Also, this is the 10+1 buy in. It says that at the top of my post. These players aren't very good. They'll call with a lot less than a set.

[lastchance]

I don't think you want to be called by TPGK or JJ or QQ, which are all very easy calls, IMHO. Picking up t200 here would be really nice, and certainly much better than getting called in a race.

So yeah, that's pretty much what this play is. A level 1 blind steal.

[SNOWBALL138]

there's 225 in the pot, which is a lot more than a quarter of my stack. This is hardly a "level 1 blind steal"

What do you think a better line would be? Honestly, I think my play was good, but its hard to say that it was optimal.

Thank you for taking time to think about this.

[lastchance]

By level 1 blind steal, I meant that it was about picking up chips in L1 on a semibluff, which is what most blind steals are.

I think this is the line I would take if this situation occurs. I mean, they both checked to you, they probably both have nothing, you have a ton of outs if they call.

So yeah, I move in here.

[raptor517]

lol, i wonder if anyone has considered checking. i say that only because no one else has.. maybe taking a card off wouldnt be terrible? if you dont want to open yourself up to be raised all in? pushing isnt terrible i dont think, but i really hate to bet 2/3rds or the pot and getting raised all in. i duno, something extra to think about i gues.. 3uo

[SNOWBALL138]

The more I think about it, the more I like my push here. The cards that came on the flop make 2 pair VERY unlikely, and I would also be surprised to run into an overpair, K-9, or A-9 in this spot. If the board came with some face cards or was better co-ordinated, then the chance of running into 2 pair or some other hand that could call me would go up.

I think another poster commented that the only hands that are going to be calling against me in this spot are a set. According to my math, which isn't quite world class, even if both players had pocket pairs b4 the flop, the odds against either having a set are 5-1. Therefore:
(5)(225) > (.68)(705)


The reason I didn't check was the size of the pot. I don't think checking is bad. Its just that 70 percent of the time, the turn isn't going to make my hand. I don't want these 10+1 players bluffing me on the turn, because if I look them up, or raise them all-in, I will never get a fold out of them.


I think I may have said earlier than if the pot was t150 or so, then checking, or making a bet of t100 or so might be the best move. t225 is just so much to leave laying out there in the middle.

[raptor517]

yea yea, i definitely dont think pushing is a BAD play, its just possible there is a BETTER play out there. im pretty sure pushing is +ev here though. 3uo

[Texas Pete]

What are the chances that a 1/2 pot bet gets re-raised all-in, vs. them calling or folding? Especially considering that you were not re-raised pre-flop! Also you must consider the chances that someone who re-raises you all-in may well have called your all-in flop bet because they have you beat (remember, all you have is ace high at this point). Oh well. ICM it if you really want to know.

[valenzuela]

Why is this a semi-bluff???????????EDIT: NVM you will probably be an underdog if called, so yeah its a semi-bluff. But I like it

[Hotchile]

Bet the minimum. Suddenly, your hand is disguised and the pot is too small for somebody else to jam at without anything but a set which they won't do because now they want to play fancy and get you to commit yourself. This also leaves you with a bunch of turn options. You can make another minimum bet whether you hit or miss and you will still have a frozen opponent. Also, if you should happen to win this hand and show it down, the future of your tournament looks very bright because you will have control over almost every pot that you play.


Pushing certainly isn't horrible but you can control this pot with a minimum bet on the flop. If you get called, you are left with options. You don't have to leave yourself in a position where you are either going to commit yourself or have somebody else do it for you.

HC

[SNOWBALL138]

The minimum in this spot is t15. Do you actually mean bet t15?

I'm intrigued by this whole small bet approach to things. Isn't this what ferguson did at wsop2000?