Pot is huge...push this hard?

[Bigdaddydvo]

Had no idea if I had the best hand...but the Gospel According To Ed Miller says sometimes you need to go full speed with marginal hands when the pot warrants it:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (17.25 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (24.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 26.25 BB

[davelin]

Ugh...I'm not sure the best flop best. Definitely don't raise that turn for heaven's sakes!

[Bigdaddydvo]

The turn raise was to try to get the CO to fold. I certainly wasn't happy about the 3 bet, but it was positive that UTG+1 folded. The J high flush draw I picked up on the turn seemed like enough (albeit not much) to warrant the raise. I was hoping to get CO to fold and check down the river.

[ArturiusX]

Trying to get him to fold what? A Q or a twopair aren't going anywhere, unless he has a sole /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he ain't folding.

[aK13]

I'm going to go on a limb and say UTG+1 probably had AQo and CO had AdKd, and maybe MP1 had AKo?

On the flop, given all the action, I'd be pretty convinced I'm behind, and the turn makes the situation look even worse. I'd probably just go into check/call mode.

[davelin]

There's a good chance you're drawing. If you want a showdown...get there cheaply.

[Bigdaddydvo]

Also of note...CO was posted his BB. Hard to put him on premium holdings. Many Party players defend their early posts too strongly.

[iluzion]

oh wow thats a crazy hand. im torn between leading the flop like you did, or just check/folding. your in a 5 way capped preflop with second best pair. a capped preflop could mean AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ of which you are behind all except two, one your ahead, the other your just chopping. With this many people in the hand theres too good of chance your against any of those. And if one of them has anything suited in diamonds, they have a stroong draw to beat you.

Having lead the flop like you did, I'm making that call obviously but I think I'm throwing it away when it comes back to me capped, needing two small bets to continue. Thats alot of action to have any chance of being ahead with such a marginal hand, your drawing to a 3 outer (2 for trips 1 for the runner runner flush which isnt even the nuts in either hand). I don't think its worth pouring money into.

[dblgutshot]

Was it 44 or 77?

[iluzion]

[ QUOTE ]
Was it 44 or 77?

[/ QUOTE ]

i wanna see these results too.

[bozlax]

And you don't think it's QQ/KK/AA for why?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
...the Gospel According To Ed Miller says sometimes you need to go full speed with marginal hands when the pot warrants it...

[/ QUOTE ]

I obviously need to re-read SSH. And, I'm not sure with the way the betting went that you can consider your hand even as good as marginal, here.

[Bigdaddydvo]

I'm fairly certain UTG+1 folded the winner here.

HRHPOW shows [ 8h, Ts ] a pair of sevens.
Bigdaddydvo shows [ Jd, Jh ] two pairs, jacks and sevens.
Bigdaddydvo wins $51.5 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and sevens.

The CO with his seemingly senseless Turn 3-bet I think got the original turn-bettor to fold.

Concur w/the analysis that folding on the flop is probably the right thing to do.

[NateDog]

I often cap PF 5 ways with T8o.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly certain UTG+1 folded the winner here.

HRHPOW shows [ 8h, Ts ] a pair of sevens.
Bigdaddydvo shows [ Jd, Jh ] two pairs, jacks and sevens.
Bigdaddydvo wins $51.5 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and sevens.

The CO with his seemingly senseless Turn 3-bet I think got the original turn-bettor to fold.

Concur w/the analysis that folding on the flop is probably the right thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm undecided about folding the flop, but I'm definately not raising the turn, since we almost certainly don't have the best hand, and the odds of getting the parlay in which we raise, and have the CO raise his inferior hand to push out UTG+1's better hand, and we end up best at showdown, seems awfully slim.

[GrunchCan]

I don't see how we can ever fold the flop, and I definitely lead with what might still be the best hand - at least, as far as you knew when you initialliy bet. We can't ever fold the flop becasue the odds just keep getting better and better, and we never have to face 2 bets.

Your turn action was just crazy however. I'm wanting to fold, but probably can't becasue the pot is too large.

[NAU_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
HRHPOW shows [ 8h, Ts ] a pair of sevens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like you have a new buddy for your list /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[iluzion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
HRHPOW shows [ 8h, Ts ] a pair of sevens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like you have a new buddy for your list /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored]... _I_ have a new buddy for my list...

[bozlax]

AIIIEEEEEEEE! I'm blind!

I suspect you're right...UTG+1 probably folded Qx, maybe in some suit other than /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Quick note: be careful to not include players' screen names in posts like this. It makes my mouth start watering, and then my keyboard shorts ou...%..$&amp;&amp;%)...$@@#!%%

[dblgutshot]

Because I am talking about CO not the PFR, since PFRer folded.

CO just called all the raises preflop but sprang to life on the flop with the call/3-bet which usually screams a set, or in some cases, T high. Unlikely to see AA or KK or QQ from him, though it is possible, just not likely.

[Bigdaddydvo]

I've thought a bit more about this hand and trying my best not to consider the ultimate results. 1st, the CO's 3-bet on the flop is strange...I can't immediately recall seeing this type of line. He calling vs. 3-betting would have closed the action on the flop. His 3 bet enabled UTG+1 to cap it. After relooking the flop action, there's no way to pass on calling two more small bets in my position given the size of the pot. I therefore retract any thought to folding this flop.

I still like my turn raise. The weak Jack diamond draw I picked up on the turn I think is enough to force CO to call 2 large bets cold. I achieved my intent of getting the pot heads up and having the best chance of winning it, though not in the way I imagined (me vs. UTG+1, not CO). UTG+1 I think we can safely put on KQo without the Kd. Lots of guys aren't comfortable raising KQo in EP, yet they won't throw it away. CO 3-bet must have screamed flush to him, and without Kd he's drawing dead. I'm the first to admit it...CO's 3-bet won me this pot.

This hand stuck out for me because it illustrates Ed Miller's point of using an unorthodox level of aggressiveness when pots reach these proportions, since you only need to succeed occasionally (like I did) for moves like my turn raise to be profitable.

[PuckNPoker]

I've done this type of thing against a known uber-LAG but if you have nothing on the CO then I dont like this line. Although it looks like you got the best hand to fold so what do I know. /images/graemlins/wink.gif