Going Cold Online, anyone else experience this

[avalanche201]

Hey all- First this post is not made in an egotistical fancy, i am looking for honest answers. Anyways I was wondering if anyone else has experienced this before. Basically you make a deposit, you get up, for me it was 50 in poker stars, make it up to 130, in the small rooms. Then i go cold, just sick cold, loose on trips, flushes, even boats. Then go back up to 110, then back down over and over again. I have been cold again all week. Yesterday lost on two pair, aces, two pair again, on and on. Then i log on today, playing only good hands, played 26 hands, got top pair ONCE. I mean the odds on getting top pair are 1 in 4, i had AK 4 times nothing, i got top pair once, playing no lower then a J10.

Now as i said, i am not immune to making mistakes, but i also didnt start sucking at poker overnight. I know luck can down turn for a while, but it seems to happen this way every time. i have played on poker room, same exact thing. And i mean yes when i play live you have bad nights, you dont get cards dont get flops, but these things dont last for weeks. Or in the internet case where you get near even, and then back up you go.

I dont completely mistrust these sites, although being a poker dealer i do believe that the hands are bigger (slided towards making a bigger rake). IE those hands you see two boats vs quads vs a flush. I men if these really happend casinos would be paying out bad beats every day several times a day. I guess i can see that the reason for this does happen is to make sure good players arent just taking the crappy ones money, because if that happens they dont come back. Less players less money. So you get this up and down rollercoster. Thus they make money dont loose players, thats my theory atleast.

What I do know is that many peoples experience online is a bad one, and mine is starting to turn into that. Anyone else experience these huge shifts? I mean blatent ones like you just get nothing fold to the point you only play about 10% of the hands (just the blinds) or dont get top pair in several hours (even with the increase in hands).

Im just tired of logging on and getting the feeling that my poker game sucks, that when i play live this is not the case. However as stated i am a dealer so the bulk of my experience is in the cyber world. But mostly it would be nice to know if other people have seen this trend.

[Surfbullet]

The long term in the poker world is reallllly long. I've had a 15,000 hand breakeven stretch - I am not an amazing player, but historically proven to be a winner, so it's still a staggering amount of hands to coast over.

It's important to be sufficiently bankrolled, and not let the immediate results get to you... you will have up days, and down days. Sometimes you'll have down months.

Keep your chin up.

Surf

[gamblore99]

this is called a losing streak. yes, others have had them. they are a part of poker.

Welcome to the forum

[7ontheline]

I get Aces every hand. You mean you don't have the hack for internet poker yet?

Seriously though, everyone gets sucky cards sometimes.

[peachy]

im frozen in ice and forever trapped inside a gigantic glacier

[Cerril]

About six years ago I took some classes in critical thinking that made me start looking at things a lot more carefully. I make a point to consciously note things happening in a statistically likely manner whenever I can, to help balance out the times when it seems something funky's happening. When I hit a bunch of green lights in a row some day I don't feel like the world is out to get me the next week when I hit every red light, or those times when people are courteous to me help when I'd otherwise be wondering why everyone seems out to cause me in particular grief.

So those times where I hit a huge downswing following an upswing recall the times when the upswing was followed by another upswing and so on. That's not to say it hurts to try to find statistical anomalies, but it's pretty likely they won't be there and with the right outlook it won't even look all that odd

[OrangeKing]

Hey, it's another "is online poker rigged?" thread! However, you deserve an honest, good answer, because your post was inquisitive and I think you're really looking to learn - not to find scapegoats.

No, poker sites are not screwing with you, juicing hands, or doing anything else than dealing cards that are much closer to random than the hands you deal at your casino. Why do you feel the way you feel?

1) Natural skeptism over not being able to see the cards, meaning something could be fishy;

2) Your brain's natural tendency to see patterns, even when they don't exist;

3) The fact that you're seeing 2-3 times as many hands per hour than when you deal/play live;

4) The tendency for people to assume any downswing is due to luck, foul play, or anything else that's out of their hands, as oppoosed to the tendency to think of any upswing as an indication of skill.

Don't worry, at any of the major sites, your play is perfectly legitimate and safe. If you're a winning player, you'll come out ahead in the long run, like many of us here have. If you're a losing player...you're in the right place to learn how to win. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[cardcounter0]

So you are a poker dealer but you have never seen anyone run cold .... yeah, okay.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[driller]

I won over $11,000 at 15-30 on pp in Feb. Almost 10 bb/100. Now, in March so far I'm down $4400. -2.33 bb/100 over 6300 hands. Is that cold enough for you? For the year I'm up about 2bb/100, which I hope is indicative of where I am as a player right now. Wish it were better, but it's not.

P.S. If you really believe the sites are rigged, why play?

[boogster]

These poker sites are definitely rigged. I've played enough online poker to know that these "swings" don't happen randomly. You can definitely win money playing online, but you have to know when to "start playing" and when to drop down to the lower limits to "weather the storm". The reason they bring you up and then bring you down is so that they can generate the maximum rake from their customers. That's really the only way that they can control how much they make in rake.

[BottlesOf]

Nope, never ran cold....



/images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[MaxPower]

Believe it or not, I have run cold more in live card games more than I ever have online.

[OrangeKing]

[ QUOTE ]
These poker sites are definitely rigged. I've played enough online poker to know that these "swings" don't happen randomly. You can definitely win money playing online, but you have to know when to "start playing" and when to drop down to the lower limits to "weather the storm". The reason they bring you up and then bring you down is so that they can generate the maximum rake from their customers. That's really the only way that they can control how much they make in rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, it's another one...I suppose all our crazy ideas like "evidence" and "sample sizes" don't mean anything.

So by your theory, B&M casinos have no way to control how much they make in rake? No wonder live poker is failing so badly. It's a good thing online poker is rigged, or none of these sites could possibly make a profit based simply on the fact that people play way too many hands and put far too much money into pots, thus generating tons of rake for them. The slight increase they make on juiced hands - which nobody can seem to find even the slightest bit of evidence for when looking in databases containing hundreds of thousands of hands (obviously, because the people running these sites are just too smart for us) - is worth the risk, since they couldn't exist without controlling the rake so tightly. Right?

[boogster]

The only evidence that I have is talking to other players and playing a ridiculous amount of hours online myself. Remember that all poker sites are run by software programmed by humans. The logic behind the software is obviously the logic of the programmers themselves. My guess is that they programmed the software in such a way that maximizes the profits that the poker room's make. Obviously, they can't control the actions of their players, however, they can control the probability of a player staying till the river or folding on the flop. If they can control this, then they can also control, with certain accurancy, how much money a player has in front of them. If they can control the amount of money each player has, then they can also control the rake generated. When a player busts out, they don't make any more money on that player, so why not program some logic to increase the probability of this player winning when he's low on chips? How many times have you seen a player who's low on chips hit a runner-runner flush draw to beat your trips?

I also think that they increase the probability of a new customer's winning chances. They do this because they know that new players will come back for more if they let them win on their initial deposit. To me, these patterns have happened way too often for them to be considered coincidence.

Like many people, I have won a lot of money playing online, however, it doesn't stop me from believing that the software behind these poker sites aren't "fixed" in some sort of way. The person who figures out the "random" patterns that they claim to use will be the person who breaks online poker.

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
The only evidence that I have is talking to other players and playing a ridiculous amount of hours online myself...

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is much funnier if you imagine it being spoken by Brad Pitt's character in the film "Twelve Monkeys".

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Believe it or not, I have run cold more in live card games more than I ever have online.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who plays as nitty as Evan is always running cold. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Then i log on today, playing only good hands, played 26 hands, got top pair ONCE.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh . . . oh my. My my my.

This is going to be a fun thread to read . . .

EDIT: I'm very, very disappointed in you people. At least you haven't filled him in on the whole pattern-mapper thing.

[avalanche201]

Man its so funny how strongly people feel on this. All i know is there is no proof either way. BY the way the update, AK/AQ 15 times in a row now without a pair, yup thats random. IM KEEPING TRACK

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Online poker doesn't work where you get dealt AK, hit top pair, then miss it the next two hands because AK only connects with a flop 1/3 of the time.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
Online poker doesn't work where you get dealt AK, hit top pair, then miss it the next two hands because AK only connects with a flop 1/3 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah? Well I have SEVENTY NINE HANDS that say otherwise pal!

[avalanche201]

Well, im not saying you cant miss on Ak or Aq, but the chances of this (15 in a row) is essentially in the millions

[cardcounter0]

Actually there is a lot of proof (100,000+ hand database) that it IS completely random.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[avalanche201]

Well i mean how many people walk out of a casino with this impression then? Onje of the main reasons i see this problem is, as far as i understand it, the randomizing is done a split second before the card is thrown out, thus it dosen even know what the card is going to untill it is thrown. But that is different then a shuffle of cards, maybe its too random? i dont know just a thought.

[OrangeKing]

^^^^^^^ I think it's mainly because in a casino, you can see the phyisical cards - it definitely puts your mind at ease as far as "fairness" goes, so instead, you see people bemoaning their horrible luck as they leave.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, im not saying you cant miss on Ak or Aq, but the chances of this (15 in a row) is essentially in the millions

[/ QUOTE ]

More like 0.25%...or 1 in 400. Actually, it's a little less than that, but for the purposes of this argument I just assumed a 1/3 chance of connecting on the flop (it's actually a little lower).

[avalanche201]

A review of ultimate bet, thought this was funny " Ultimate bet has security galore, with secure logins, irregular play / callusion protection software, etc. There seemed to be a bit too many big cards, and suited cards when playing Texas Holdem, but more time would be necessary to determine if this was simply a fluke. We have spoken with a number of other online players, who have confirmed with us our feeling, in regards to the not-so-random cards that tend to come out when playing at Ultimate Bet."

[ucfryan]

Well, here's the obligatory http://g.myspace.com/00046/98/65/46415689_l.jpg

[xpander]

ucfryan and I have this on lockdown.

[EStreet20]

How do you say you're a card dealer and don't get the impression that most people walk out of casinos feeling like they lost????

[cardcounter0]

1 in 400? that is almost like millions, isn't it?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[avalanche201]

what, have you read any of this? Obviously people walk out of the casino loosing. NO i dont think even 1% walk out saying those cards just didnt seem right. But i see tons that have that impression online.

[gummy d]

[ QUOTE ]
Well i mean how many people walk out of a casino with this impression then? Onje of the main reasons i see this problem is, as far as i understand it, the randomizing is done a split second before the card is thrown out, thus it dosen even know what the card is going to untill it is thrown. But that is different then a shuffle of cards, maybe its too random? i dont know just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it possible that the shuffle is completely random and also rigged? I realize the sites are continuously shuffling their decks to prevent anyone from possibly breaking their code and knowing which card is next, however, this would also allow software to deal cards which entice players to put money into the pot. Just because you have 300,000 thousand hands that prove the shuffle is random does not mean that it isn't at the same time juiced or rigged in someway. If online poker is rigged, it's not rigged against anyone in particular. It is rigged for everyone and thus completely random. ( oh yes, I know i'm a maroon) /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[memphis57]

Hey, it's really funny you should bring this up, I've been meaning to ask about this. I'm a long term 2BB/100 player and ever since I've been playing, I've been winning at exaxctly that rate on EVERY HAND. I mean, like, I'll be playing 30/60 and I'm on the blind and we'll get this weird split pot that nets me exactly $61.20. Or, like, I'll be MP2 and trying to bluff through with 69o, and again it ends ina weird split pot where I net exactly $1.20 more than I bet. In fact, even when I fold, I'll look away from the screen for a second and when I look back, there's $1.20 on my plate. I mean, I really thought poker was supposed to be more of an up-and-down kind of thing. But then I tell myself that since I'm so close to the averages, there can't be anything wrong. Now, if I get a big deviation, maybe I'll suspect something is up.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

So what are the odds of missing 18 4 flush draws in a row? You hit it one out of every three times, yet everytime I had one I missed. 18 times.. The chances must be in the MILLIONS! When this happened to me I should've known it was just online poker being rigged.

Man, that's pretty random.

[ucfryan]

True. I beat you to it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it possible that the shuffle is completely random and also rigged?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Sorry.

[cardcounter0]

buy a dictionary and look up the word "random".
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Saint_D]

These threads always sping out of control. To the poster: Do us all a favor. By poker tracker. Play 10K hands and use it to record your stats. When you hit 10K, post your details page and ask for help. If something fishy is really going on, you can use your own DB to prove it.

Remember, you can beat online poker by studying and playing better than the fish. Is it rigged? You won't care when you are 10 tabling 2/4 and can quit your McJob and be free.

-D

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

75K hands in 2004, at 2.8BB/100.

12K hands in January, losing $300 total.

12K hands in February at 5BB/100.

10K hands in March at 1BB/100.

108 B&M hours since January, losing $9.87/hour.

Yeah, the game is pretty streaky. The long run is reeeeaaaaaaalllllyyyy long.

[peachy]

dont talk to me about cold....cold would be welcomed right about now

[Transference]

[ QUOTE ]
This post is much funnier if you imagine it being spoken by Brad Pitt's character in the film "Twelve Monkeys".

[/ QUOTE ]

Well played. I'm reading all online poker is rigged posts with this in mind in the future.

This thread shows remarkable restraint, im a little dissapointed.