Here's one hand Curtains

[Jman28]

Again, this is a $100+9. Last HH of the night, sorry.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t1775)
MP2 (t1255)
MP3 (t670)
CO (t870)
Button (t2675)
SB (t805)
Hero (t1035)
UTG (t425)
UTG+1 (t490)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t250, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ...

[SuitedSixes]

Fold. I am confident that Curtains will agree with me on this one.

[curtains]

I think I'd call....but I don't have a big problem with folding.

[curtains]

good call SS!

I don't feel like the difference between 1030 and 880 is THAT great. Of course it's important, but we are getting a cheap shot here at having a huge stack. The pot odds are definitely in our favor here.

However I admit my decision is very close, and if the raise was even 275-300 it may change my mind. Also I'm not that confident that calling is the proper play, however I think I'd call.

[johnnybeef]

fold. after reviewing all of the big pots that i have lost tonight (probably close to 30) i have respotted a leak...going over top of people with marginal hands. when stack sizes are this small relative to the blinds, a bet less than a push is an action craver.

[Jman28]

What do you guys think of pushing? (See 'sandwich effect' in HOH)

[curtains]

I hate pushing. Don't try any of this sandwich crap at a $100 sit and go when someone has bet $250 and gotten a cold caller.

[Jman28]

If they fold 30% of the time, and I win 40% of the time called (assuming 1 caller),

.3 * 650 = +195 (they fold)

.7 * .4 * 1435 = +401.8 (they call and I win)

.7 * .6 * - 935 = -392.7 (they call and I lose)

EV of push = 204.1

I simplified this to not include when I get two callers, and I pulled the percentages out of my ass, but it's just to show a point. Also, this is Chip EV only.

What #s would you find more reasonable?

-Jman28

[Jman28]

I'm going to sleep now. Discuss without me.

[curtains]

I don't know I just can't believe these guys ever fold after voluntarily putting 250 chips in to call a raise. Of course they will sometimes but I don't want to bet on it. Also I'm not quite sure you will win 40% if called, but thats debatable.

If your numbers are accurate then moving allin should be fine, but it just feels very very icky to me. Btw have to go to bed in a few minutes!!

[curtains]

btw I like folding preflop, I change my mind. I was in bed sleeping when I realized I really didn't like calling. I had to decide whether it was worth it to get out of bed to avoid leaving my call opinion up all night, and decided that it was.

[Ryan527h]

I like folding here, the only way you are taking down a pot is if a 4 comes which is 12:1 by the river, I'm putting him on two big ones but he could also have a low pocket pair as well. If you were going to make a move here I'd say push, but I think your best bet is a PF fold.

[bigredlemon]

Depends... how good are the players? Judging by the fact that the blinds are 100 and 9 are still around, I'd say it's a tough table.

Suppose you push:
MP1: probably tried to steal with a playable but weak hand and will fold a weak hand. If he has a semi strong hand, he still has to fold because there's a flat caller behind him who may be slowplaying a monster, and because you're also representing a big hand. Losing would mean giving up a chip lead and falling into the danger zone. He must fold everything but a monster.

Button: he probably doesn't have a big hand either. His flat call suggests he has a weak hand that is only worth playing because of his position on the button. If he has a strong hand, he'd at least min-raise to build a pot. He has lots of chips though, and given all that money in the pot, it's 700 more to win 1500. He'll be fine if he loses, and will have a very strong lead if he wins. There's no way he will fold here.


Thus, there's probably a 80% chance you're putting all your money on a coin flip, and 20% chance as a huge underdog. In conclusion, don't push.

As for calling: You'll be playing it out of position, and will have to fold most flops. You get in a lot of trouble very easily, and someone could have an overpair on you. Might be worth a call. With 750 chips left, you still have enough fold equity to last a few orbits, and you'll likely have a better hand by then.

[adanthar]

I'm about even between calling and folding there but I think a fold is probably better and I just suck.