Is there ever a right time - or is this just stupid?

[MarkD]

We are late in the 33+rebuy WSOP tournament on poker stars. Down to 28 people. 18th gets 350, 3-17 get 650 (or maybe it was 850 - it doesn't matter), 2nd and 1st get the entry + 1000 spending cash.

The blinds are 1.5k, 3k with an ante of 100 (or maybe it was 75 ante). In the past orbit (or maybe it was 2 orbits) I have shoved my stack in 3 times pre-flop because I was shortstacked and I'm pushing big hands. Since I've been at this table it's been folded around to the SB 3 times while I was in the BB and each time he raised it 2.5xBB and each time I folded like a girl.

So that's the scenario. Also, my chip stack is about 42k and the SB's chipstack is about 75k so although I'm not doing horrible I need to chip up.

I'm BB with K9o. It's folded to the SB who makes it 7k. I push all-in.

[Simplistic]

you have 11BB here, i re-raise but don't push.

[mostsmooth]

im gonna guess he called and was ahead of you.
im gonna further guess he had AA, KK, maybe QQ, maybe AK
just a guess /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[zcahv82]

There isn't much he will call you with, that doesn't have you dominated, or even equal. At best you are looking at medium PP, at worst, AA or AK. I think a call, and see what the flop show ups. but most likely a fold, the blinds aren't that big, and I am sure you might want to see more hands and go all in on another/better hand. At least the Big stack is on your right. Folding I say.

[MarkD]

Why raise? and to what amount and if he goes over the top then what?

I think everyone has kind of missed the point of my post which was more of a general question of when to play back at your opponent in this type of blind steal situation or if you shouldn't bother. I don't think my exact hand matters a lot here... when you consider the general nature of my question.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
im gonna guess he called and was ahead of you.
im gonna further guess he had AA, KK, maybe QQ, maybe AK
just a guess

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you are wrong with your guesses. I don't really know what the point of your post was though.

I'm looking at this from an overall tournament strategy perspective of a resteal and do I need the goods to go for this resteal attempt or is this a specific situation where my specific cards don't matter much.

I'm trying to figure out if there is ever a right time to make a play like this and further trying to figure out what criteria need to be met for this play to be correct.

I made this play as I thought there was a very very high chance my opponent would fold. I figured there was a huge chance he was on a pure steal with a garbage hand and couldn't take the heat. This is what I'm trying to get at here.

In the actual hand my opponent did call (rather quickly) with AJo and I lost.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
There isn't much he will call you with, that doesn't have you dominated, or even equal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I think this is pretty obvious and it's the may reason I made the play. The range of hands in question is a very small subset of the total range of hands my opponent could have in this situation (at least I think it is).

[ QUOTE ]
At best you are looking at medium PP, at worst, AA or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

At best I am looking at K2o and he folds and I take the chips and move on with the tournament in a better spot then I was previously at.

The point of the play was to make him fold. I was kind of thinking that my cards didn't matter much in this spot as I have noted in my prior responses above this one.

[betgo]

I like this play. If you are going to raise, you have to push. Since the SB has been raising like this every time, he may not have much. You also want to discourage him and others from stealing your blind. I think the SB will call with a lot of hands, but he will fold junk, which might be what he has. This isn't too bad a hand to make a move like this with, but I would rather have a suited connector or gapper if I didn't have a real hand.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't too bad a hand to make a move like this with, but I would rather have a suited connector or gapper if I didn't have a real hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about this a little as well. I do believe that to make this play you want some hope of winning the pot when you are called and thus I think suited connectorish hands are a good choice. I think the K9o that I choice is not a terrible choice as well, but I also think that maybe I should have waited and not forced the play so much.

I also think that to make this play requires a certain ratio of chip / stack to blind size and also your opponent has to have a reasonable chipstack that is not huge. But what do I know. I posted this to get feedback on the play as I don't consider myself a good tournament player and I am sick of finishing "close".

[Roman]

how tight has the OPP been to reraises? I would imagine he would call with quite a bit of hands there. If opp is pretty fishy I call and play a flop in position, a push isnt terrible though.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im gonna guess he called and was ahead of you.
im gonna further guess he had AA, KK, maybe QQ, maybe AK
just a guess

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, you are wrong with your guesses.
In the actual hand my opponent did call (rather quickly) with AJo and I lost.

[/ QUOTE ]
wrong with my guesses? looks like i was 2 for 3, no?

[MarkD]

Who cares? What does it have to do with anything really? So I lost the hand... do you want a cookie? I thought it was kind of clear from the title of my post that I lost in this specific case. That's not why I posted the hand.

[Mez]

I like the play. If he's pressuring your blind every hand, his chances of calling are likely low. In most cases, you not only win the hand, but you also back him off for next time.

I would not put him on a big hand. Personally, I'd prefer not to have K9 in this spot as your likely dominated by a better king if you're called.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
how tight has the OPP been to reraises?

[/ QUOTE ]
He had not been reraised prior to this hand that I saw.

[ QUOTE ]
I would imagine he would call with quite a bit of hands there.

[/ QUOTE ]
What makes you say that? I would personally be folding a lot of hands that I open raised with in that spot if I were my oppponent and he was me and he pushed all in.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares? What does it have to do with anything really? So I lost the hand... do you want a cookie? I thought it was kind of clear from the title of my post that I lost in this specific case. That's not why I posted the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
what kind of cookie?

[betgo]

He doesn't need a big hand to call. I might call the push with most pair or high card hands. He is getting some pot odds. The push is this situation doesn't mean you have a monster.

If he is raising with pretty much any two, he is still a lot more likely to fold than call.

[Che]

MarkD-

[ QUOTE ]
a general question of when to play back at your opponent in this type of blind steal situation or if you shouldn't bother.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you shouldn't bother in this case.

If you had enough to raise and then fold to a reraise (60K+), I like the reraise. If you had less (<30K), I like the push.

Given the number of chips you have and the cards you were dealt (yes, the cards matter when you have as many chips as you do), you should call and play a flop. You're getting about 11K in pot odds for your 4K call and you've got to figure he will lead at you on most flops so your implied odds are very good given that K9 frequently hits TP, which is all you need to go to war in an SBvBB battle.

If you miss, you can fold and still have over 10BB left so your FE on future steals is not really damaged. If he checks to you, you should bet and that bet should also be profitable, so calling looks good all the way around as I see it.

If you had 76s, I wouldn't like the flat call as much. That's more of a raise or fold hand HU unless the money is *really* deep, which it almost never is in a tourney. Since any real raise pot-commits you, I probably fold since you have too much to push unless you *know* the opponent will fold a very high % of the time and you have enough stack to wait one more orbit before you become desperate.

Later,
Che

[MarkD]

Che,

Thank you for the good advice. I really understand your logic and think that I don't understand these situations well enough. I typically wouldn't call in this spot.

Thanks again. I guess there isn't very much room for "plays" like this and I should stop looking for them and start worrying about playing solid poker.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the good advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if it's good advice or not. It's just what I usually do.

[ QUOTE ]
I really understand your logic and think that I don't understand these situations well enough. I typically wouldn't call in this spot.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you have thought through what I said and you think it makes more sense to do what I said, great. But, keep in mind that "because that's what Che (MLG, Fossilman, whoever) would do" is not a good reason for making any given choice.

The reality is that the money already in the pot is ~25% of your stack so a case can definitely be made for pushing to seize it right now IF you read the FE to be large enough. I can even see an argument for folding in certain situations.

I think the situation you posted is a tough one. I appreciate your posting it since it made me consider the various issues which will help me the next time I'm in a similar situation. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks again. I guess there isn't very much room for "plays" like this

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think in terms of certain bets/raises being "plays" while others are just "solid poker." For example, if an all-in bluff with nothing has enough folding equity, it's solid poker as far as I'm concerned. There's no reason to call it a "play." But, if by "play" you mean crappy poker (as opposed to solid poker), I guess I see what you're saying.

Later,
Che

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have thought through what I said and you think it makes more sense to do what I said, great. But, keep in mind that "because that's what Che (MLG, Fossilman, whoever) would do" is not a good reason for making any given choice.


[/ QUOTE ]

No offene, but I don't really follow the MTT forum that often so I don't know who the prolific posters are. I agree with the advice because it makes sense and is logical and gives me some insight.

I'm not entirely convinced my play is atrocious as I believed there was good fold equity for the size of the pot I would win + the chance of an outdraw was on my mind as well.

I'm leaning towards your play of just calling but I'm hestitant because I'm not used to putting that much of my stack into the pot passively. This is what has me thinking so much - maybe I need to re-evaluate certain situations. I'm very much a raise or fold type of player pre-flop.

[ QUOTE ]
don't think in terms of certain bets/raises being "plays" while others are just "solid poker." For example, if an all-in bluff with nothing has enough folding equity, it's solid poker as far as I'm concerned. There's no reason to call it a "play." But, if by "play" you mean crappy poker (as opposed to solid poker), I guess I see what you're saying.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of just a matter of semantics to me. I called my hand a play because it's more of an agressive risky move rather than conservative solid play. I actually feel the same way you do, but I'm loose with my terminology at times.

[curtains]

Raising is fine and allin is the correct raise if you plan to do so. Also playable is calling. 3rd best play is folding.

[zcahv82]

I don't think yoou understand.

Let me get this right? You had 42,000 in BB, he had 75,000 in SB. He raised 7k, that makes puts 11,500 in the pot, and you go all in.

You had over 10 BB, and the big stack is on your right. Why risk it with K9o, is what I am saying.

[ QUOTE ]
At best I am looking at K2o and he folds and I take the chips and move on with the tournament in a better spot then I was previously at.


[/ QUOTE ]

This proves what I said, he isn't going to call you without having a better hand!

I know you are trying to make him fold:- If he does fold a worse hand you gain nothing, and if he calls he has you beat, and you went all in!

Sorry matt, I don't like your play, and don't understand your logic.

Why don't you just take the Top 50% hands and go all-in in these situations when playing SB/BB battle, for that is all I understand you are doing.

Maybe I am very wrong?, but you busted out when you didn't have to, and that is a major leak in my game.

Good luck.

ZCAHV82

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
Also playable is calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

10. Be2 is also playable as well.

[MarkD]

[qoute]This proves what I said, he isn't going to call you without having a better hand!

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm... yes, we have established you think that. I'm saying that is ok since there are a lot more worse hands than better hands.

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
10. Be2 is also playable as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chess?

JV- any thoughts on this hand? Any thoughts about strategy in this type of situation that you wish to share?

[schifty]

OK, I don't really like a call best here with the intention of just playing the hand. At first, I was thinking a stop and go works perfectly. 1) you don't want to go calling off 1/6 of your stack if you're just gonna muck to a postflop bet when you're left with k high. 2) the reason for not just shoving it in there preflop is a psych move on the sb IMO. If someone flat calls a sig bet preflop with position on me, bells are going off. If I don't have a big hand, I will proceed with extreme caution.
However, this doesn't really solve your blind battle problem. I think I would prefer shoving it in there preflop. He's getting less than 2:1 and he's not gonna call more than half his stack off with a really marginal hand, IMO, but he'll muck a few hands that are ahead of you (baby ace, kt, maybe 22-33). If he calls and has you dominated, that's rough. In most cases that you're behind and he calls, you still have a good price on the pot preflop to shove it in there (11k, you shove four times- his call that's ahead of you 60-40 still gives you a good price). Add that to your fold equity and I think you made the right play. I'd be surprised if he had raised the other times with a holding as strong as aj.
If you lean towards a call, consider the stop and go. But I hope I'm leaning you back to your push...
cheers

[Che]

Metagame:

1. You've pushed in 3 times in the last orbit so a push is more likely to be called. (Favors call over push.)

2. Would you push AA/KK here? I would, if I had pushed 3 times in the previous orbit, but most would probably not. Flat calling is good here, even if you fold on the flop, because it shows the thinking players that you don't push all marginal hands and slowplay all big hands. (Favors call over push, but doesn't get much weight since there aren't many thinking players around and the table may break before you can take advantage of the image you have created.)

BTW- Metagame considerations only come into play for me when a decision is close. Generally, I just make the best play for the moment and then adjust to my new image in the future. I think calling/pushing is close so I just wanted to add these reasons that favor calling in addition to the ones I previously posted.

Point of order: Several have mentioned calling off a "large" percentage of your stack preflop. The call is only ~10% of his stack. He's playing with position and almost 3:1 immediate odds, 13:1 implied odds. What's wrong with playing a flop in that situation against a random hand, especially if the SB will autobet almost any flop (and he probably will since he is an aggressive player)?

Later,
Che

[Soul Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
But, keep in mind that "because that's what Che (MLG, Fossilman, whoever) would do" is not a good reason for making any given choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just when I thought I had found a winning strategy...

[zcahv82]

Ok mark, I think I am missing the point! :-)

I could understand what you did if you had say 4BB's left, and so then encouraging a weak hand to call, but with over 10BBs........ I wont say it again!

Most seems to agree with you, so I obviosly need to sit down think about it more.

Good luck

ZCAHV82

[schifty]

good point. I think it's close.

[MarkD]

Zcahv82,

I'm not trying to say to you that I am right and you are wrong. I think folding/pushing/calling are all very close in this situation and I thought that I potentially made the wrong decision which is why I originally posted this hand.

What I'm trying to say to you is that part of the reason I pushed was to leverage my stack size. If I had 4BB's left my thinking would be simple: Do I think I have enough equity in this spot with this hand to justify playing? In the actual hand my chip position makes the decision more complicated and more factors come into play.

I just don't think it's as simple as what you have made it out to be: "I have >10BB's if I fold - fold and play another hand later." I think there is a lot more to this deicision then that.

Namely (and these were the thoughts that I had during the hand mostly and they may be wrong, or there may be factors more important that I didn't consider which change the decision):
- My opponent has a history of being agressive and I have a history of laying down to his agression.
- This means that my opponent could have a very large range of hands here and most of them won't be able to continue if I push here thus my fold equity should be very high.
- If my opponent calls with a medium pocket pair I am in a coin flip with a nice overlay from the pot odds.
- If my opponent has a bigger hand that doesn't dominate me (like his AJo in the actual hand) the overlay from the pot is good for me.
- There are only a few hands, out of the total subset of the range of hands I thought my opponent could have, that truly have me in bad shape.

I thought these factors made pushing a decent/good decision. I think Che has made a lot of excellent points that make calling better than pushing here and I am leaning towards that being the best play in this spot.

I don't mind folding here, but IMO I'm at a point where I need to make a move soon and the above analysis made me think that I could get a decent increase in chip position here. I really am trying to come in 1st/2nd in this tournament. A money place would be OK, but it's not what I'm after in this specific tournament.