Need help with this hand

[Kevin J]

I open raised from middle position with AQo. Only two very loose blinds called.

The flop came 345. Checked to me, I bet, sb called, bb check/raised, I called, sb now check/3-bets, bb calls, I call.

Did I play this flop terrible? I'm not even sure a deuce is an out. An ace or queen could just get me in trouble. But I got trapped in there one bet at a time. By the time I was faced with the last raise, my call closed the action. With 14 small bets already in the pot, I thought I was correct to call even with only a small chance that one of my outs was good.

The turn was a 2. Checked to me and I bet...

How bad was this bet? I didn't want to give a free card to two pair or a set, yet either of my opponents could easily have a six.

The sb groans and mucks QQ face up. Not to be out done, the bb groans louder and mucks KK face up. Wow, did I get lucky! Not only did I run down two bigger pairs, but any other betting/raising sequence from my opponents and I wouldn't have been around to catch the deuce.

What I'm having a hard time with was that initially I was pissed that I bet the turn. Not only could I have run into a bigger str8, but by betting I let them both get away from their hands. If I checked, there's little doubt I could've collected at least one more bet on the river. Then again, what about the possibility of two pair, a set, or a six? Does this make betting important? What should I be thinking about when weighing the risk/reward of these opposing possibilities?

[Ginogino]

Kevin:
I see nothing wrong with your play. I cannot imagine how BB and SB could let the pre-flop betting go for 1 small bet. And in this case (like the movies, though so often unlike real life) their stupidity allowed you to draw out on them. I might have wussed out on the flop, figuring one of them must have a straight or a set already. But maybe not. When your own straight came on the turn, I like your leading out. I can't believe BB checking the flop with KK with only one bettor (you) behind him. Are you that reliable at betting out when you open-raise pre-flop? If they are going to merely call behind you in the blinds with anything, and then check to you on the flop, this gives you license to open-raise on the button with some fairly speculative drawing hands, since you are buying a free turn card, should you want it.

How bad were these guys generally? What a sweet pair to play against, I suspect.

You needed to bet the turn because they both had about 6% chance of catching a 2 to tie you. Your bet made it a bad decision for them to call. If they had two pairs or a set, they would be right to call with either 4 or 10 outs to beat you in addition to the 3 outs to tie you.

I can see the flop play - you never had to pay more than a bet, so you really could not have folded.

Once the turn comes, well, I don't think anyone is putting another chip in, so you saved everyone some time. An ace or 6 on the river ruins you, so you might as well bet. No point in slowplaying when everyone puts you on a straight.

[Kevin J]

There's no doubt I hit a 2-shot parlay in that they both mis-played their hands enough to allow me to win. Thanks for your thoughts.

[Kevin J]

"If they had two pairs or a set, they would be right to call with either 4 or 10 outs to beat you in addition to the 3 outs to tie you."

Yes, but you bet the turn anyway, right?

"You needed to bet the turn because they both had about 6% chance of catching a 2 to tie you. Your bet made it a bad decision for them to call."

But what about running into a six? Is this enough to check the turn? I'd hate to get raised here.

Thanks for your response Rich.

[Kevin J]

Thanks Dan. I agree with everything you said, but I want to make sure I understand...
"No point in slowplaying when everyone puts you on a straight."

Don't you think it's likely that I'll run into a bigger straight (i.e. a six)? So now does my bet gain enough information to fold for a raise? Thanks again, Dan.

[andyfox]

That's what they get for not re-raising pre-flop or betting on the flop.

[bernie]

you got very lucky....they had you in deep preflop...though you did have 7 outs once the flop comes...

if they could see your cards were face up, why raise and make you fold? your only immediate out is an A. you catch a Q and your paying off bigtime. though its only 1 Q left. i dont agree with everyones thought on the others preflop 'terrible' play...i think the statements are results oriented. the KK had a huge advantage in this one, hindsightwise...even if he 3 bets preflop, it doesnt mean youd be out. sb raises and BB caps, then its a fold, but if sb raises, the BB may still just smooth it in. which isnt a terrible play.

b

[Kevin J]

bernie-

I agree with your pre-flop assessment, but after the first bet went in on the flop, I think they both should of dropped the "trap" mentality and started playing their hands for what they were worth. IMO-

You know the players, but I'd guess it could be a "bet and fold to a raise", since you would be chopping at best". You could also just call it down and hope, or call 1 bet and see what happens.

I think the pot is fairly large, so giving away 2/3 of it to people who will fold to a bet is a little tough.

If someone had the 6, would they check after all that?

So, it cost 2 extra bets (3 vs. 1) to get to a showdown if you bet.

So The pot has 6+9= 15 SBs in it, and you lose 10 of them is a straight card comes. There's 7 of those out there, so that's:

7 outs in (52 - 6 - 4 =) 42 ramaining cards. So 1 in 6 times you lose 10 small bets, so 1.66 SBs is the price of checking.

The price of betting is 2 extra bet to get to the end (at most, if you can't fold).

Since checking cost 1.66 small bets (call it 1.6 with rake), and betting costs 4 small bets * S, where S is the probability of a 6 being out, you should be if S is under 40%. I think it is.

THis neglects sets and 2 pr, but 2 pr won't pay (I hope) and a set will, which is more reason to bet.

Hope this helps.

Dan Z.

2 pair will play, because of the additional chances for a split. Sorry for the oversight. This is even more reason to bet.

What possible hand could either of them had that would allow them to raise or three bet before the flop that contained a six? Pocket sixes? A-6 suited? 6-7 suited? I don't see that you had much to worry about.

That being said, the only other way you could hope to get a few chips from either player is by checking the turn and hoping they bluff out on the river. And that's if an ace doesn't hit on the river giving you a two or three way chop.

I think you played this hand very well. Bet the turn and take it down.