do I have the odds to call here?

[Page Jacobson]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t780)
Hero (t1915)
UTG (t2960)
MP (t1160)
Button :#A500AF(villian)/ (t1185)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button :#A500AF(villian)/ calls t300, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t750) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">villian bets t600</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1350

Villian was a fairly tight player. I figured him for top pair or an overpair.

[bones]

no

[spentrent]

No reason to call here. You're not getting good pot odds.

If you raise to make him bet the last 285 in his stack, you're getting 1635 to 885... 1.8 to 1. It's a -CEV bet.

And even if the numbers were fudged a little to give you marginally positive CEV, you're still probably better off using your stack to steal blinds rather than calling off a third of it on a draw that will cripple you 2 out of 3 times.

[microbet]

His bet is essentially allin so I would consider it calling 885 to win 1435. This is less than 2 to 1. Hitting an 8 outer is 31.45% which is a little more than 2 to 1 against.

You could possibly have outs pairing your 8 or 9, but you also could have a lot of bad outs. If he has two hearts, you lose 2 outs. If he has AK, you lose 4 outs. If he has AK hearts you lose 5 outs. Also if he has hearts you could hit your outs and lose anyway.

Even if you had pot odds, I think most people here would say you should fold.

I wonder how many people would say you should have pushed preflop?

[Scuba Chuck]

You played this the same way I would have.

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder how many people would say you should have pushed preflop?


[/ QUOTE ]

With Button having less than 3xBB after his call here, it's very dangerous to push this hand. I would put button on two overcards (if so, he played this hand incorrectly), Ax, or setting a trap with AA/KK. Otherwise, IMO, button would have folded, or pushed to steal. And after seeing the flop, villain saw the two hearts, and decided he better get his chips in the middle. I put Button on AA or KK now.

[jph0424]

I don't agree with checking postflop in this situation. The villain is going to fire away with anything and you have a pretty solid semi-bluffing hand. I would probably push here.

-JP

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with checking postflop in this situation. The villain is going to fire away with anything and you have a pretty solid semi-bluffing hand. I would probably push here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, with villain being so low stacked, what hands do you think he would have to have to call your allin bet here? IMO, it's extremely wide. It's time for him to gamble. Do you think your line here might be a leak?

[jph0424]

Maybe,

I'm new to SNG's and post here because I like being shown where I potentially have leaks. Thinking back on the hand, even with 2 overs he would almost definitely call any bet you made. My line was probably overagrressive. Thanks for calling me out on it.

-JP

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you think your line here might be a leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think putting the villian these two hands,

[ QUOTE ]

I put Button on AA or KK now.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is a leak.

Yugoslav
PS I agree that the OP's line is fine.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with checking postflop in this situation. The villain is going to fire away with anything and you have a pretty solid semi-bluffing hand. I would probably push here.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Out of curiosity, with villain being so low stacked, what hands do you think he would have to have to call your allin bet here? IMO, it's extremely wide. It's time for him to gamble. Do you think your line here might be a leak?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe,

I'm new to SNG's and post here because I like being shown where I potentially have leaks. Thinking back on the hand, even with 2 overs he would almost definitely call any bet you made. My line was probably overagrressive. Thanks for calling me out on it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Look, game situations are always different. Pushing might win the pot here. The only hands that villain might have two overs with here are a slow played AA or KK. This flop is VERY coordinated, and scary for a slow played AA or KK. Do you see why he couldn't have any other two card over cards here?

That being said, the ass end of a straight draw is even less attractive when you're semi-bluffing against a desperate stack.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I think putting the villian these two hands,


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I put Button on AA or KK now.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Is a leak.


[/ QUOTE ]

Feeling mighty bold aren't we? I don't think putting him on these hands is a leak. A leak is when you make a mistake with your chips. Recognizing a slow played AA or KK is a difficult skill, and I certainly don't have it. So, I might be wrong. But from my point of view (those pesky $55s), this is a slow played AA/KK scared of a straight draw and flush draw possible board.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Feeling mighty bold aren't we?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. I felt you were being too bold in the range of hands you were attributing to the villian here.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think putting him on these hands is a leak. A leak is when you make a mistake with your chips.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably just semantics, but, IMO, you're going to 'leak' chips if you make inaccurate assumptions about an opponents range of hands.

[ QUOTE ]

Recognizing a slow played AA or KK is a difficult skill, and I certainly don't have it. So, I might be wrong. But from my point of view (those pesky $55s), this is a slow played AA/KK scared of a straight draw and flush draw possible board.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a $55 SNG. Yes, it's a difficult skill. But, IMO $33 players do not all play it in the manner of the OP. I think putting an opponent on AA or KK here will cause you to lose chips when opponents call with nothing and then bet you off of a pot with nothing.

There is no way for you to attribute the range of KK-AA to the villian based on the information contained above in the thread.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way for you to attribute the range of KK-AA to the villian based on the information contained above in the thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious then. Given all the action, what would/could have been a clue, or a tell tale sign of a slow played AA/KK?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is no way for you to attribute the range of KK-AA to the villian based on the information contained above in the thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious then. Given all the action, what would/could have been a clue, or a tell tale sign of a slow played AA/KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never had to put an opponent on exactly AA-KK.

There are things that increase the liklihood, IMO, and things that decrease the likihood.

For example:
If I ever play with Raptor in the above situation. It very well could be the first time I put someone on KK-AA. I doubt he'd be playing meta-games with me given his 8 table set-up and I doubt I'd really want to find out if his claims about always limping AA-KK are true or not.

As for 'the above action' I assume the lack of action is what made you put the villian on KK-AA. I think that monkey's like to limp. He limped...good chance he's a monkey, good chance he doesn't have KK-AA. I'm not ruling it out, but as I mentioned previously, I'm not going to give him credit for KK-AA based solely on the information above.

Yugoslav
I don't think there is a 'telltale' sign of KK-AA. There are certain situations that suggest heavily you may be up against a monster (which is perhaps *likely* to be KK-AA), but there is still a distinction.

[SuitedSixes]

If you are thinking top pair or overpair, this is an easy fold. Look at it as a delayed blind steal, if nothing else. Would you have called a 600t raise pre-flop?

I don't think you put your tournament life on the line on a draw, if your read says you are behind.

[Scuba Chuck]

So you've NEVER played against someone who limped with AA/KK in late play? Or, you've never been knocked out by someone who's limped with AA/KK in late play?

I come across this frequently enough on the $33s that I tend to watch for it. But you are right, putting villain exclusively on AA/KK here is wrong, but it's not a leak. This hand sucks.

Scuba - who wants to know what "playing meta-games" means?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are thinking top pair or overpair, this is an easy fold. Look at it as a delayed blind steal, if nothing else. Would you have called a 600t raise pre-flop?

I don't think you put your tournament life on the line on a draw, if your read says you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, if one of us had just said this, this post would be over. To the point, well done, sir.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are thinking top pair or overpair, this is an easy fold. Look at it as a delayed blind steal, if nothing else. Would you have called a 600t raise pre-flop?

I don't think you put your tournament life on the line on a draw, if your read says you are behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, if one of us had just said this, this post would be over. To the point, well done, sir.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not agreeing that villain has AA or KK, in fact at this point Hero is behind just about anything, all he has is an OESD which not worth my tournament life. At this point of the tournament FE is everything so I am not calling anything when I am behind A high.

[Scuba Chuck]

Hand converter doesn't show hands, and this is a $33.

***** Hand History for Game 1707205164 *****
15/30 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 10223272) - Tue Mar 08 22:15:22 EST 2005
Table Table 10988 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: DonOki (755)
Seat 2: Barcaloungr (875)
Seat 3: Boommad (740)
Seat 4: billymaloof (840)
Seat 5: ATpoker39 (740)
Seat 6: Scuba_Chuk (725)
Seat 7: Snwbdr23 (785)
Seat 8: besty1885 (1630)
Seat 9: dfink111 (465)
Seat 10: jmark71 (445)
ATpoker39 posts small blind (10)
Scuba_Chuk posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuk [ 7s, Qd ]
Barcaloungr: sounds like good times
Snwbdr23 folds.
besty1885 folds.
dfink111 folds.
jmark71 folds.
DonOki folds.
Barcaloungr folds.
Boommad folds.
billymaloof calls (15)
ATpoker39 raises (20) to 30
Scuba_Chuk folds.
billymaloof raises (60) to 75
ATpoker39 raises (710) to 740
ATpoker39 is all-In.
billymaloof calls (665)
Creating Main Pot with $1495 with ATpoker39
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8h, 8d, Js ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 6d ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1495 |
Board: [ 8h 8d Js 3d 6d ]
DonOki balance 755, didn't bet (folded)
Barcaloungr balance 875, didn't bet (folded)
Boommad balance 740, didn't bet (folded)
billymaloof balance 1595, bet 740, collected 1495, net 755 [ As Ah ] [ two pairs, aces and eights -- As,Ah,Js,8h,8d ]
ATpoker39 balance 0, lost 740 [ 9c 9h ] [ two pairs, nines and eights -- Js,9c,9h,8h,8d ]
Scuba_Chuk balance 710, lost 15 (folded)
Snwbdr23 balance 785, didn't bet (folded)
besty1885 balance 1630, didn't bet (folded)
dfink111 balance 465, didn't bet (folded)
jmark71 balance 445, didn't bet (folded)

[Scuba Chuck]

This counts right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t1710)
Button (t680)
SB (t1180)
BB (t2600)
Hero (t1830)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero calls t300, MP calls t300, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (t1050) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1530 (All-In)</font>, MP calls t1410 (All-In), BB folds.

Turn: (t4290) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t4290) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4290

[SuitedSixes]

Did he river quads?

[The Yugoslavian]

I don't get why you're posting these hands.

You don't think that anecdotal hands where someone limped AA or KK make a point, do you?

Or is this just for kicks??

Meh.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Or is this just for kicks??


[/ QUOTE ]

More kicks. Besides my slow played aces tonite (twice), I watched 4 other instances of slow played AA tonite. On one of those occasions, I folded because I "sniffed" it out. There are just times when a limp just seems inappropriate considering the stack size of villain.

So round about, this hand on this post, just seemed inappropriate for his stack size.

[curtains]

No, checking and calling is not an option. Betting the flop is an option and so is check raising allin. My order of preference would be:

1. Check and fold to his 600 chip bet
2. Bet out a small amount on the flop
3. Check raise allin
4. Check and call