Do I call this stop-n-go?

[The Student]

I'm wondering what you all might think the villian's range of hands could be. Here's the situation: UB $11 SNG, I haven't seen anything remarkable about this guy's play before (or at least I don't have any notes on him). Here's the hand (sorry, but I couldn't get Bison's converter to work for some reason):

(No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 05/Mar/05 15:18:15

porksandwich is at seat 0 with 2480.
dsmexecutive is at seat 1 with 2250.
mystlina is at seat 3 with 1440.
Arthur Dent is at seat 4 with 1140.
Hero is at seat 5 with 2040.
Kyman is at seat 9 with 650.
The button is at seat 5.

Kyman posts the small blind of 75.
porksandwich posts the big blind of 150.

porksandwich: -- --
dsmexecutive: -- --
mystlina: -- --
Arthur Dent: -- --
Hero: Td Tc
Kyman: -- --

Pre-flop:
dsmexecutive folds. mystlina folds. Arthur Dent folds. Big Tef raises to 525. Kyman folds. porksandwich calls.

Flop (board: Ac 5s 5d):

porksandwich bets 1125.

Here's what I was thinking: Seems like a probable stop-n-go with a middle pair to me. I mean, why would someone with a strong ace put in a bet that large - it seems to scream to me "Get out of this pot!" So I'm about to re-raise all-in here expecting to see a mid pocket pair here. Anything else I should be thinking about? Anyone think that a strong ace or a lucky 5 bets this way? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
ts-

[curtains]

I would fold here postflop unless I really knew something about my opponent.

[The Student]

Why? What do you think he has here?

Anyone else care to chime in? I could really use the help thinking through this play - thanks in advance.

ts-

[Scuba Chuck]

First thing. You can feel VERY confident that he doesn't have a 5.

Next, I think this was played poorly preflop. What would you have done had villain reraised you allin preflop? If your answer is call, then you should have just pushed preflop. Be careful playing against the big stack.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
First thing. You can feel VERY confident that he doesn't have a 5.

Next, I think this was played poorly preflop. What would you have done had villain reraised you allin preflop? If your answer is call, then you should have just pushed preflop. Be careful playing against the big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey chuck, thanks for responding. i read this before you editted it - so i guess my question about whether you suggest limping with jacks in this spot is now moot. but, as to your question - no, i don't think i call an all-in pre-flop here because i figure to be in a flip or big dog situation. so then do you advocate limping and seeing a flop? this just seems a little weak-tight to me, but maybe that's more important than asking to play a big hand against one of the two stacks that have me covered.

ts-

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
i read this before you editted it - so i guess my question about whether you suggest limping with jacks in this spot is now moot

[/ QUOTE ] BTW, I assume you mean Tens (not Jacks)

I changed my original post because I wanted to emphasize that your Preflop decision is where the mistake is, IMHO. I think that a limp is fine. If that's too weak tight for you, why not push (which is what I do)?

The odds of the flop coming with scare cards (overcards) are high, so you don't want to see a flop, (or if you do, you want to see a cheap flop). Does that make sense?

Scuba
BTW, by my numbers, TT is still the 5th best starting hand, out of 169 total hand combinations. Top 3%.

[pooh74]

I agree w/ student. I dont think Villain is plopping down this bet with an A...id put him on 66-99...jj or higher and wouldve pushed PF, AK and he checks the flop.

[jcm4ccc]

I'd say the villian has AK, and the flop hit his hand. Why would he call a 525 bet with a mid-pair? That doesn't make any sense, unless his intention all along was to do a stop-and-go. But this doesn't seem an ideal situation to try a stop-and-go for the villian. He is the chip leader. Why risk that on such a play, especially when the Ace hit the board?

Your preflop bet looks like it could very easily be AK. So why isn't the villian scared that you have that? Why is he willing to risk his whole tournament on you not having AK? I think it's because he has AK himself.

The villian's flop bet was the size of the pot. A very reasonable bet. He could have check/raised, but the pot was big enough. I think the villian was being straightforward, not tricky.

[Scuba Chuck]

jcm, good points.

If villain knows how to effectively use the StopNGo, he's not using it from the ChipLeader position. It's most effective when you're a smaller/smallish stack.

I don't know if I agree villain has AK, but I think A9+ is a the most likely possibility.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I agree villain has AK, but I think A9+ is a the most likely possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

We shall see. You win if he has A9-AQ. I win if he has AK.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say the villian has AK, and the flop hit his hand. Why would he call a 525 bet with a mid-pair? That doesn't make any sense, unless his intention all along was to do a stop-and-go. But this doesn't seem an ideal situation to try a stop-and-go for the villian. He is the chip leader. Why risk that on such a play, especially when the Ace hit the board?

Your preflop bet looks like it could very easily be AK. So why isn't the villian scared that you have that? Why is he willing to risk his whole tournament on you not having AK? I think it's because he has AK himself.

The villian's flop bet was the size of the pot. A very reasonable bet. He could have check/raised, but the pot was big enough. I think the villian was being straightforward, not tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

good points...but this isnt a PF push as someone pointed out...so i guess its a raise to 450 pf and toss on the flop? no other way to play it i guess

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know if I agree villain has AK, but I think A9+ is a the most likely possibility.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We shall see. You win if he has A9-AQ. I win if he has AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

HMMMM, sounds like a wager...
What will we do when he flips over JJ?

[The Student]

Okay, I see what you're saying. Personally, I had been thinking that most $11 players would try to check-raise or put in a mini-bet to trap with TPTK in this situation. Maybe I'm just underestimating the competition's ability to see that it's a big pot and that they should just take it down while they still can.


Now that I'm thinking of this situation a bit more, I've got another set of questions. Let's flip the situation around here. What do you do if you're the BB, some EP/MP raises it pre-flop and it's folded around to you and you see A/K? What's your play pre-flop as chip leader against another stack that is large enough to cripple you if you lose a big pot? If you call here pre-flop, what's your move on a raibow flop with an ace?

Same set of questions, but now you have A/Q in the BB. Any and all thoughts are appreciated as I am trying to think through the possibilities here.

thanks,

ts-

[The Student]

If you're asking for results, just let me know and I'll share.

ts-

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're asking for results, just let me know and I'll share.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not going to get too much more advice here, so yeah, results time.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're asking for results, just let me know and I'll share.

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the results?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Now that I'm thinking of this situation a bit more, I've got another set of questions

[/ QUOTE ]

Mr Student, why don't you write each question, and then write out your thought process as you try and make a decision, and what lead you to the conclusion that you made. Then ask for criticisms of your thought process. You'll get a much better discussion, IMO.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I see what you're saying. Personally, I had been thinking that most $11 players would try to check-raise or put in a mini-bet to trap with TPTK in this situation. Maybe I'm just underestimating the competition's ability to see that it's a big pot and that they should just take it down while they still can.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're making two errors in this post and they're both relatively big, although the second is bigger.

The first is your last sentence. The size of the pot in this hand is relatively irrelevant on an A55r board. Even a complete fish will not look at his AK and say 'hmm, I'll take it down while I still can' (instead, he'll say 'ooh, I hit my ace, so I'll bet'; that *is* reasonably likely to happen in the 11's). "While I still can"...block Hero from calling his ace and hitting a 3 outer, or folding his TT and hitting a 2 outer?

Second, and related to the first: You're trying to put yourself in the BB's shoes in a $11 SNG. Don't. That's going to confuse you far more than necessary and will simply lead to you playing worse. The ONLY thing you should ask yourself at these stakes in this hand is 'hmm, does this fish like his hand? yes? OK, I don't so I fold'.

To answer your question in case you ever move up, in your situation I would play it about the same and fold the flop. In the BB's spot, if I just called AK (I wouldn't; in a $11 I'd move in and expect to be called by A8) I would always check the flop and probably bet the turn if checked through/check the turn if he bets the flop and probably check the river when he checks behind unless he's committed himself by now.

I'd play the same way with AQ except I'd be slightly more likely to just call PF.

[The Student]

Okay - I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise, and even so, once he flops a set or quads, I expect him to try to trap), and I thought that he would have re-raised my PF with JJ-AA. I figured with A/K he tries to trap here, so I put him on A/J-A/Q or a middle pair. Then I got to thinking that the bet, although pot-sized, is a little weird - why not just put me all-in here (he bet 1125 and I only had 1500 or so left)? I thought the bet was odd enough that I ended up putting him on a middle pair that was hoping that I didn't have an ace to call his bet. I re-raise all-in, he calls, and shows me:

A/3 offsuit.

I don't know what the hell the guy was thinking, but I was trying not to make this a whiney post.

so in this case, I think we all lose our bets. thanks again for your thoughts.

ts-

[microbet]

If you haven't noticed anything from him, that probably means he isn't super-aggressive so he probably isn't too likely to come over the top of a reasonable raise without a bigger pair or maybe AK, not against another fairly big stack. On the other hand, a modest raise will likely get a lot of overcard hards to fold that would call a limp.

Preflop, I think a raise to 400 probably accomplishes the same thing as your raise. Then fold if he pushes. A good flop would then be any flop that doesn't have an ace.

Post-flop, as Lorinda says, don't read him for what he should do, read him for what he is likely to do. I think he is more likely to have an Ace than a middle pair.

Maybe he was thinking a big bet made it look like he didn't have the ace.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay - I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise, and even so, once he flops a set or quads, I expect him to try to trap), and I thought that he would have re-raised my PF with JJ-AA. I figured with A/K he tries to trap here, so I put him on A/J-A/Q or a middle pair. Then I got to thinking that the bet, although pot-sized, is a little weird - why not just put me all-in here (he bet 1125 and I only had 1500 or so left)? I thought the bet was odd enough that I ended up putting him on a middle pair that was hoping that I didn't have an ace to call his bet. I re-raise all-in, he calls, and shows me:

A/3 offsuit.

I don't know what the hell the guy was thinking, but I was trying not to make this a whiney post.

so in this case, I think we all lose our bets. thanks again for your thoughts.

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar wins the bet, for this particular quote: [ QUOTE ]
You're trying to put yourself in the BB's shoes in a $11 SNG. Don't. That's going to confuse you far more than necessary

[/ QUOTE ]

A3?

[adanthar]

Meh, I liked 'I hit my ace so I'll bet' better /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[The Student]

thanks for the feedback, adanthar. i think you're probably correct about both issues, especially the second. while trying to improve my game and reviewing trouble hands, i try to focus on the hypothetical holdings that an opponent may have as opposed to the actual results (especially when they're crazy). in this hand, i realize that i convinced myself that the guy was bluffing, so i called with a marginal hand on an ace-high board.

i'm trying to work on my play with 10/10-Q/Q, and i'm still a little lost. i'm just not sure how to play them when one overcard falls and i'm the pre-flop raiser. in this same situation (me with the 10s), I would have folded if there were two overcards and I was bet into. but I would have bet 2/3 the pot (1/2 my stack), if no overcard had dropped and it was checked to me - thinking that the caller of my PF raise probably just has overcards. you see any faults in my thinking here?

ts-

[adanthar]

An A or K is a far different 'overcard' than a Q or especially a J.

Quite honestly, though, if *any* overcard falls and you are bet into, always folding at low limits is not wrong. Similarly, treating an overpair as good 97% of the time HU is not wrong, either.

[pooh74]

I dont think our attempt to get in the BB's head here was all that futile. I felt BB felt he had a great chance of being behind here (any other A) and made this push based on fear of being behind. he holds AK at 11s and he either pushes PF over top of you or calls and checks this flop hoping to CR (make that AJ-AK) .

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, I liked 'I hit my ace so I'll bet' better /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that disproves your contention that you can't get into someone's head at this level. You were 100% on the money. The range of hands was A2-AK. Any of these hands beats TT. Fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay - I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you see why this is not likely, if at all probable, that villain doesn't have any 5s at all?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, that disproves your contention that you can't get into someone's head at this level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure you can. You just can't put yourself in their shoes. It's literally like trying to put yourself in the mind of the most colorful goldfish in your aquarium.

You're not them, so don't ascribe motivations that don't exist. He's not using third level thinking; he's following your finger because he thinks it's moving so it must be food.

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay - I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you see why this is not likely, if at all probable, that villain doesn't have any 5s at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I follow your question correctly, but I assume you're pointing me to the fact that since there are already two 5s on the board, it's highly unlikely (stats wise) that he has one (or the other two remaining 5s) in his hand. Is that what you mean?

ts-

[The Student]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not using third level thinking; he's following your finger because he thinks it's moving so it must be food.

[/ QUOTE ]

another great quote!

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay - I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you see why this is not likely, if at all probable, that villain doesn't have any 5s at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I follow your question correctly, but I assume you're pointing me to the fact that since there are already two 5s on the board, it's highly unlikely (stats wise) that he has one (or the other two remaining 5s) in his hand. Is that what you mean?

ts-

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he also means; would villain try and make you fold if he held a 5 here? He would check into the initial raiser hoping to have you bet for him.

[The Student]

Ahh, okay, then maybe he misread my post that he was quoting from: "I couldn't put him on a 5 (if so, it could only have been A/5 suited or a pair of 5s to call my PF raise, and even so, once he flops a set or quads, I expect him to try to trap)" - because, yeah, I thought he would check-raise me here with a 5.

[pooh74]

maybe...i just read your post in a vaccuum and didnt realize you addressed that.