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View Full Version : AQ - River brings a 4-flush HU, bet?

JoshuaD
03-04-2005, 04:24 PM
The guy was 30/5/1 after about 25 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero ????

It's sorta like the situation for clarkmeister's, but I'm in the wrong position. Should I bet or take the free showdown?

If I bet, fold to a C/R?
Rudbaeck
03-04-2005, 05:02 PM
Take the free showdown. If you bet you reasonably have to fold to the c/r.
applej25
03-04-2005, 05:10 PM
Im confused with what this guy may be calling down with here. I dont see any reason for a value bet in this case.
freehat
03-04-2005, 05:35 PM
Bet and call a raise.
JoshuaD
03-04-2005, 05:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Bet and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand do you think he's C/R'ing with?
MercTec
03-04-2005, 05:47 PM
Hes only calling (or raising) with a hand that beats you. Take the showdown and hope he doesnt have 2 pair afraid of the flush.
JoshuaD
03-04-2005, 05:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Hes only calling (or raising) with a hand that beats you. Take the showdown and hope he doesnt have 2 pair afraid of the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

A weaker queen will probably call.
Rudbaeck
03-04-2005, 05:51 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Bet and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's good if you monastic vows include poverty.
MercTec
03-04-2005, 05:53 PM
I'm guessing you had somewhat of a read to make that assumption? Even so, this doesn't seem like a good value betting opportunity.
JoshuaD
03-04-2005, 05:55 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing you had somewhat of a read to make that assumption? Even so, this doesn't seem like a good value betting opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

No reads besides what I put in my original post. I just think a weaker queen will call here. (I also agree that it's not a good enough reason to value bet)
Rudbaeck
03-05-2005, 09:53 AM
[ QUOTE ]
No reads besides what I put in my original post. I just think a weaker queen will call here. (I also agree that it's not a good enough reason to value bet)

[/ QUOTE ]

You should in general value bet when you are 55% likely to be best when called when in last position heads up. I don't think you are 55% likely to be best when called here.

There is however one single opponent you can make this value bet against. The calling station that goes to showdown with any piece of the board no matter how scary it looks, and who only raises the nuts on the end.
Evan
03-05-2005, 10:13 AM
I would definitely bet the river. You have no reason to think your hand is not best. Yes, you should fold to a check raise.
Rudbaeck
03-05-2005, 10:40 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely bet the river. You have no reason to think your hand is not best. Yes, you should fold to a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

But is it best when called often enough? I highly doubt that. You can't value bet merely because your hand is best, you have to do it when your hand is a favorite when called.