QQ against a preflop capper.

[Entity]

Villain seems to be a very aggressive TAG. I’ve got him at 20% VPIP, 12.5% PFR, with pretty high aggression levels. He seems good postflop but I’ve only got about 150 hands on him; I did watch him cap PF, cap flop and raise turn against a known LAG with 99 (the board was 8-high and monotone), so he’s pretty capable of gonzo aggression when it’s called for. We’ve yet to have any sort of confrontation at the table.

The Button is an uber calling station. Really really bad player.

What's my line here?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero...

[dkernler]

Is villain aware of you? i.e. Will he slow down without TP against you?

I suck, but I'm pretty much thinking way ahead or way behind here. I c/r, call a 3-bet, and call down with no aggression from button or super scary cards.

I'm sure it's the wrong play, but I'm coming to realize that it's best to post my bad ideas and at least read what I'm doing wrong.

PS - I imagine it should be '13 SB', not '13 Hero' as the value of the pot. Great as you are, there can be only one Hero.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Is villain aware of you? i.e. Will he slow down without TP against you?

I suck, but I'm pretty much thinking way ahead or way behind here. I c/r, call a 3-bet, and call down with no aggression from button or super scary cards.

I'm sure it's the wrong play, but I'm coming to realize that it's best to post my bad ideas and at least read what I'm doing wrong.

PS - I imagine it should be '13 SB', not '13 Hero' as the value of the pot. Great as you are, there can be only one Hero.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you're way ahead or way behind, checkraising the flop isn't a great play.

I'm entertaining suggestions -- bet/fold? Check/fold? Bet-call? Check-call down and pray he went gonzo with TT because of Button?

Rob

[KingOtter]

He's willing to cap with 99 vs. known lags, but you're not a known lag, right?

So he's probably got a premium hand, since he's seen you for 150 hands he knows you're TAG. So AQ AJ are doubtful here.

I'd probably bet/fold to a raise.

KO

[davelin]

Ugh, this isn't pretty. I'm over 90% sure you're behind.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, this isn't pretty. I'm over 90% sure you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check/fold?

Rob

[Thigh]

I'd hate to see a check go all the way through, betting I think could incurr a raise by villain. Would you call his raise?

Since you PF raised, I think you might have to bet here to gain some respect. If he raises, I would call and wait for the turn.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, this isn't pretty. I'm over 90% sure you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check/fold?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like the best option although it doesn't seem quite right. If I calculate it correctly, you need to be ahead like 80% of the time to make a call-down correct (assuming Button comes along), if you bet/fold I think you're going to be raised a very high % of the time. Check-raising is just silly IMO.

[dkernler]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you're way ahead or way behind, checkraising the flop isn't a great play.

I'm entertaining suggestions -- bet/fold? Check/fold? Bet-call? Check-call down and pray he went gonzo with TT because of Button?


[/ QUOTE ]
Very true. We want to invest as little as possible in that situation.

With a cap from relatively early position, couldn't we narrow down villain's cards a bit? We're behind pretty much every capping hand. Of AA-JJ and AKs, we're not ahead of any. If villain would cap with TT or AQs, we could still be ahead. It seems worth investing one more SB to find out. Upon reflection, I think bet/fold seems reasonable. Also, we don't really have to call down just to see what villain had because button is in there and will call down for us.

But as usual, this thinking could be way off.

[droolie]

The list of pf capping hands you currently beat is quite small. We are likley drawing to 3 outs. I hate it but I probably check fold this. If I'm feeling frisky I callthe flop and see what happens on the turn.

[dkernler]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raising is just silly IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that was stupid. See - that's why it's better for me to post my thoughts - so I can find out how wrong I am! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[VBM]

decides to take up thumb-wrestling instead.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jskills]

I'm not sure, but I like betting out here on the flop. Getting raised would suck, but I'd call to see the turn. At that point folding to a bet on an unhelpful turn card would probably be the way to go? I have a LOT of trouble laying down hands like this unfortunately, so I certainly could be wrong.

Betting out makes villan decide what to do in situation where he has to consider you're holding AK or KK right?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, this isn't pretty. I'm over 90% sure you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check/fold?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like the best option although it doesn't seem quite right. If I calculate it correctly, you need to be ahead like 80% of the time to make a call-down correct (assuming Button comes along), if you bet/fold I think you're going to be raised a very high % of the time. Check-raising is just silly IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand only needs to be good at showdown around 1 time out of 6 for me to break even check-calling down, though. How close are we now? I hate this.

Rob

[iluzion]

Hero check/folds.

Capped preflop I would think its too likely for him to be holding AA/AK/KK/JJ. Being so aggressive he might even be on KQs or just possibly KJs. I'm definitly getting out of this if he shows interest.

[JerseyTom]

Echoing what others said, you're really only ahead of TT, 99, AQs (if he'd even cap with that) and your position blows. Way ahead or way behind, blah, blah, blah. C/R'ing the flop here would awful.

I think I like bet/fold here, but I'm king of the weak-tighties. I'd have to think presence of the Button (donk or not) protects the pot somewhat, no? However, if TAG just calls your flop bet, I don't know what to do if I don't spike a Q or pick up one of my back door straight draws on the turn (I start thinking "set")...


Tom

[flair1239]

I would check-call. See the turn and reevaluate.

The reason I am check calling is not because of MP2, but because of the button.

I think he protects this pot, because there is a good chance MP2 just has a decent hand that he opened raised with (med PP, Axs..etc). If the Button is bad he could be CC with any face (specifically a hand like k8o, k4o...etc).

As for the possibility of being ahead, I think there is a good chance that you are. However, there is not much danger to giving a free card, since an Ace is the only other overcard that is out there.

I think betting out is a waste of time, since it is unlikely that both will fold. Also betting for value is pretty suspect, because it is likely you are behind and drawing to somewhere between 2.5-3.5 outs. The other thing is that MP2 is going to be firing anyway, but even if you bet and he raised, the calling station would probably still come (if he is indeed really, really bad.).

[Entity]

Button is really really bad. He'd call down on an AAKKQ board that was capped preflop with 66.

Rob

[car ramrod]

I can't imagine a whole lot we beat that he caps pf w/. That being said, I will want to showdown. Maybe I'm weak, but I would check call down, depending on what button does. I think I am good enough times to at least see down my QQ. Plus I want to see what hands he is willing to cap pf w/
I just saw that he has gone crazy with 99, so I guess now I'm confused.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems to be a very aggressive TAG. I’ve got him at 20% VPIP, 12.5% PFR, with pretty high aggression levels. He seems good postflop but I’ve only got about 150 hands on him; I did watch him cap PF, cap flop and raise turn against a known LAG with 99 (the board was 8-high and monotone), so he’s pretty capable of gonzo aggression when it’s called for. We’ve yet to have any sort of confrontation at the table.

The Button is an uber calling station. Really really bad player.

What's my line here?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

bet folding to a flop raise would suck a LOT.

at the least, if I decide I might be best, I want to bet, let PFR raise (he'd do this regardless of whether we're beat IMO to protect his hand) and then call that flop raise and reevaluate. however, I don't think we want to let PFR protect out hand for us, because I think we're behind a lot here.

Personally, I want to check call the flop closing the action getting 15-1 and keeping the retarded button in, and check fold a turn blank, check call a draw, or c/r a Q. we have a backdoor straight draw here, plus a set is good a LOT of the time. giving us 3-3.5 outs, we can peel on the flop here. plus if it goes bet-raise, we're out cheap.

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]

My hand only needs to be good at showdown around 1 time out of 6 for me to break even check-calling down, though. How close are we now? I hate this.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

With 13 SB's on the flop, you need to be good:

- 5/23 = 21.7% (assuming TAG bets each round and Button folds flop)
- 5/28 = 17.8% (assuming TAG bets each round and Button does what he does and calls down)
- somewhere in between (assuming TAG bets each round and Button folds before river)

for check-calling to break even.

Alas, you're probably hosed - you'll pay this off more when you're behind than he'll pay off when you're ahead, no?


Tom

[VBM]

seriously speaking, when you have another TAG raising liberally PF, you can narrow the range of hands they have significantly.

ask yourself once this flop comes out, how many of those possible hands are you ahead of?

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I want to check call the flop closing the action getting 15-1 and keeping the retarded button in, and check fold a turn blank, check call a draw, or c/r a Q. we have a backdoor straight draw here, plus a set is good a LOT of the time. giving us 3-3.5 outs, we can peel on the flop here. plus if it goes bet-raise, we're out cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty compelling. I like it a lot. I'm printing this out and keeping it in my wallet...


Tom

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I want to check call the flop closing the action getting 15-1 and keeping the retarded button in, and check fold a turn blank, check call a draw, or c/r a Q. we have a backdoor straight draw here, plus a set is good a LOT of the time. giving us 3-3.5 outs, we can peel on the flop here. plus if it goes bet-raise, we're out cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tytygoodnuts]

I would bet and see what happens. If he raises, call and check/fold the turn if nothing comes. If he just calls you are ahead unless he is slowplaying, so fire again if the turn is good.

[shadow29]

This is pretty close. I think that the best line is check/call, check/fold a non T, A, or Q, check/raise a Q, and check/call a T, and probably check/call an A (depends on the action tho).

Honestly, a case could be made for check/folding here, depending on just how "gonzo" this guy is. Like is he capping TT, or just JJ-AA and AK?

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
Like is he capping TT, or just JJ-AA and AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's 12.5 pfr, and entity saw him cap 99. I think his range is fairly wide, but not crazy.

[GrunchCan]

Assuming villan is a good player, and an observant player who knows you to be good as well, we're either:

- Way behind an overpair, flopped set, tp or unlikely 2 pr
- Drawing dead to a flopped set
- chopping with qq
- way ahead tt or 99
- way ahead a stone bluff

I check fold the flop. Villan's got the bigger whacking stick in this hand, and I don't want to get tied to the pot drawing to a set that is very likely to be 2nd best anyway.

[Aaron W.]

I've only read about half the posts, so I hope I'm not redundant here.

The fact that villain is agressive means that he's leading with anything he has. Your hand is too good and the pot too large to check-fold here. Since you expect button to contribute almost 1-1 for every bet you put in, you are really getting something like 2:1 on all bets going into the pot postflop. This makes calling down a little bit more enticing.

Capping hands for him might look something like AA-TT, AK-AQ. You lose to:

AA = 6 ways
KK = 3 ways
JJ = 3 ways
AK = 12 ways ===== Total: 24 ways

You beat:
TT = 6 ways
AQ = 8 ways ==== Total: 14 ways

If this is right, you're getting some overlay because button is contributing all the way. Part of me wants to throw in AJs (an extra couple hands) because it sounds like agressive player would be willing to cap since he knows he squeezes extra money from the bad button. I vote to be a calling station against the agressive player. I don't expect him to fail to bet any street (again, it's value from the button).

[GrunchCan]

I doubt this opponent would cap PF with AQ in this spot against entity.

[toss]

I like this line the best for all the reasons DMB stated. Bet/folding the flop really doesn't look like a good line.

[flopwell]

Without looking at the other posts, I will offer my rookie opinion. Villian's vpip is decent, but he has shown uber aggresion, so what is he capping with? AA-99? AK-Qs AKo? With that flop, It seems like there are 3 hands you are ahead (99,TT,AQs) and 4 you are behind (AA,KK,JJ,AKs,AKo). So...bet out.
if he calls, not much info there, proceed with caution.
if he raises, reraise-if he then caps, call, c/f turn UI.
if he calls the reraise, you have to proceed with caution, b/c he could have AA or JJ and slow down fearing KK.
this is the type of hand I have the most trouble with...so feel free to point out my inequities.

[DeathDonkey]

I think you need to see the turn at least. I'm torn between check/call, check/fold, and check/call all the way. I think maybe you could look him up here and see if he's overplaying AJ or something. The button's presence helps too.

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

Ok, so for those of us who said we should bet and see if he raises:

Hero bets. Villain calls. Button calls.

Turn: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (16SB)

What now?

Rob

[As Zehn]

Since you said he played well after the flop, I'm guessing he wanted to get extra bets out of you and is settling for 1 SB with hopes of getting several BB. I would check/fold. If wrong I'm sure someone will correct me.

[toss]

I would bet and pray that he folds. If he raises I'm lost and would probably end up folding.

[DeathDonkey]

Well since you did that on the flop I don't see why not bet again. I'm learning that betting and folding to a raise isn't quite as cool as it was when I first learned how, but that seems like the play.

-DeathDonkey

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt this opponent would cap PF with AQ in this spot against entity.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's hard to say. We don't know how closely he has been watching the action. We know that they've played about 150 hands together, and that he is not afraid to push back. I would be very surprised to see a player willing to cap with 99 (you included this in your list), but not at AQs (People are irrationally fearful with AQo in micros because they read about all the trouble it causes at higher stake games).

[Malificent]

I smell trap here. I'd check call my way to showdown. I want to see a showdown, and it would suck to get raised on the turn . It just smells like KK and someone who isn't particularly worried about giving out a free card.

[KingOtter]

The J can only hurt. I don't see that our position is better now than it was on the flop. Now you might even be behind button!

Pot's frickin' huge, but you aren't folding either by betting.

Check/call down. May the best man win.

Tough hand.

KO

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Well since you did that on the flop I don't see why not bet again. I'm learning that betting and folding to a raise isn't quite as cool as it was when I first learned how, but that seems like the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.

Ok. Hero bets, Villain calls, Button calls.

River: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

What now?

Rob

[As Zehn]

Wow, now I'm really confused. Folding at this point would be wrong, so I would check/call hoping the button didn't fill a draw.

[toss]

No freaking idea what to do now. I check/cryingcall.

[DeathDonkey]

Wow you turn and river bad. Ok I think betting is out. How about we check and call one bet from the villain if the button folds, but don't overcall. If it goes check, check, bet I think you should just fold.

There may also be a value bet here, but it would be really thin. You could bet and fold to a raise again. Wow that would be thin.

-DeathDonkey

[PuckNPoker]

Bet the river for value... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Seriously though you are behind every single hand I could reasonably think of for 2 callers. Unless Villian had QQ,TT, or 99. On the flip side that is a scary board for everyone else as well but I would have a hard time betting out here.

[DMBFan23]

sup,

I did some pokerstoving on this, and it doesn't look as bad on the flop as I figured, although I wouldn't start raising for value. I gave the capper a VERY liberal range of capping hands. I'm also assuming button is a COMPLETE moron.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Js Kd 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 35.4968 % [ 00.34 00.01 ] { QhQd }
Hand 2: 51.0401 % [ 00.50 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 13.4631 % [ 00.13 00.00 ] { random }
</pre><hr />

then, the turn doesnt change much

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Js Kd 2h Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.2233 % [ 00.31 00.01 ] { QhQd }
Hand 2: 52.5978 % [ 00.52 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 15.1789 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { random }
</pre><hr />


however, the river...

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Js Kd 2h Jd As
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.7911 % [ 00.20 00.01 ] { QhQd }
Hand 2: 61.2290 % [ 00.60 00.02 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 3: 17.9800 % [ 00.17 00.01 ] { random }
</pre><hr />

now this of course can all be invalidated by whether or not he'll play the hands that beat you a certain way versus those hands that don't beat you (I think he dumps 99/TT on the turn, and he probably raises a K before now unless it's KK), but it really looks to me like you're screwed here.

[btspider]

i check call the flop and reevaluate. maybe the button raises and lets you fold. maybe you pick up a straight draw and get to check-call the turn as well. maybe you hit a set and can check-raise.

another option i was considering is to bet-call the flop and check-fold the turn UI. raising TT/99 would be pretty "gonzo" if he knows your ranges.

added:
given the flop action, i'd bet-fold both big streets.

[kenberman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well since you did that on the flop I don't see why not bet again. I'm learning that betting and folding to a raise isn't quite as cool as it was when I first learned how, but that seems like the play.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.

Ok. Hero bets, Villain calls, Button calls.

River: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif

What now?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

this whole hand is a series of unfortunate events

[Entity]

Ok, to all of you who said I should bet the flop in this hand:

Does my play in this hand make more sense now? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1851132&amp;page=6&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

Thanks to olliejen, Davelin and others who knew where this hand was from, but didn't post the links.

I was villain in this hand (with AK), and the TAG bet every street into me. I really think he should have considered check-calling the flop and check-folding the turn, since I can be very aggressive, but I'm only capping hands like 99 and TT against a completely gonzo LAGbot, and not a TAG.

Rob

[sfer]

Call/call/call.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, to all of you who said I should bet the flop in this hand:

Does my play in this hand make more sense now? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1851132&amp;page=6&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

Thanks to olliejen, Davelin and others who knew where this hand was from, but didn't post the links.

I was villain in this hand (with AK), and the TAG bet every street into me. I really think he should have considered check-calling the flop and check-folding the turn, since I can be very aggressive, but I'm only capping hands like 99 and TT against a completely gonzo LAGbot, and not a TAG.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

you sneaky little bitch, nice hand

[Shillx]

I love calling in this spot, as you have the worst possible hand to get aggressive with. If you had a hand like 88 you can afford to get more aggressive (it probably won't work against this guy but in general). If he folds TT then you have bought yourself a big pot. This guy certainly isn't going to fold a better hand here, and he will probably be betting hands that we have in bad shape. I would check and let him either bet the best or the worst hand in this spot.

Brad

[mr pink]

good read, well played.