How to invest almost 7BB from the SB with 54s...anyone else play this?

[climber]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Typical table, couple fish, 3 Tazs a mouse and an couple frowny faces.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Mouse limps UTG, and money bag raises UTG+2 It comes around to me in the SB. When it comes to me I've got 6 people in the pot in front of me already. This hand seems worth a play to me.

Then the UTG mouse check raise 3-bets the field and I no longer feel so good about my decision to see the flop. Original raiser caps but at this point we are still gonna be 6-7 to the flop and I figure I pretty much have to see it and hope it nails me now that I have already put $6 in...Right or wrong?


Flop: (31.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Exactly what I was hoping for.

Turn: (25.66 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (30.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 35.66 BB

Anyone play this different?

[Grease]

Preflop seems really marginal, because having it capped would suck royally, not to mention you're out of position. I'm not paying 2 BB to see a flop with 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif even if everyone's in because my pot equity sucks. Other than that, seems standard.

[krishanleong]

Just curious, but what do you think his preflop equity is assuming no higher flush draw?

Krishan

[27offsooot]

Mouse means low PFR % right... i don't like the first PF call, but i really don't like the non-river 3 bet.

[PokeHer]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop seems really marginal, because having it capped would suck royally, not to mention you're out of position. I'm not paying 2 BB to see a flop with 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif even if everyone's in because my pot equity sucks. Other than that, seems standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

There really is no evidence for him to think that it is going to be capped. There was one raise when he called and you can never really suspect a limp-reraise followed by a cap.

His pot equity may not be great, but he invested 2BB to likely win 35BB. 17.5:1. I am certain that his pot equity is higher than about 6%. Granted there wont be a 35 BB pot every time he hits, but when he hits, the payoff is likely quite large.

If he were something like MP2 and made the terrible initial cold call, i think it would be an easy fold once capped back to me. But in the SB where he knows that there are 6 people in already, I think it is fine.

[PokeHer]

Here is a sample of possible hands and their respective preflop pot equities:

pokenum -h 5s 4s - as ac - kd qd - td th - qc 9c - 6c 6d - 8h 7h
Holdem Hi: 501942 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 4s 72359 14.42 429449 85.56 134 0.03 0.144
As Ac 140912 28.07 360896 71.90 134 0.03 0.281
Kd Qd 55146 10.99 444077 88.47 2719 0.54 0.112
Td Th 66959 13.34 434849 86.63 134 0.03 0.133
Qc 9c 47366 9.44 451857 90.02 2719 0.54 0.097
6c 6d 48901 9.74 452907 90.23 134 0.03 0.097
8h 7h 67580 13.46 434228 86.51 134 0.03 0.135

[climber]

Yeah mouse is PFR under 5% and under 20% VP$IP but still aggressive postflop.

As much as I hate the fact it gets 3 bet and capped after my first coldcall--that likely means they hold hands that will pay me off big if I actually hit something.

So by that logic, if my intial call was worthwhile I should be even more inclined to call the cap. Makes you start to wonder about the initial call though.

As far as equity preflop..I just downloaded Pokerstove but can't figure out how to make it work.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Typical table, couple fish, 3 Tazs a mouse and an couple frowny faces.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $4.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Mouse limps UTG, and money bag raises UTG+2 It comes around to me in the SB. When it comes to me I've got 6 people in the pot in front of me already. This hand seems worth a play to me.

Then the UTG mouse check raise 3-bets the field and I no longer feel so good about my decision to see the flop. Original raiser caps but at this point we are still gonna be 6-7 to the flop and I figure I pretty much have to see it and hope it nails me now that I have already put $6 in...Right or wrong?


Flop: (31.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Exactly what I was hoping for.

Turn: (25.66 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (30.66 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

Final Pot: 35.66 BB

Anyone play this different?

[/ QUOTE ]

With the 1/3 blind structure, you have to be more selective with your SB holdings. That said you are likely getting 50/5 on your call. The limp/rr sucks, but now you're pot-stuck.

What is he limp/rring with? AA or KK. 3-bet the river.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
When it comes to me I've got 6 people in the pot in front of me already. This hand seems worth a play to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
With your poor position and a couple of LAGs in the hand? Not to mention the 1/3 structure of the SB in 3/6, I think this is an easy fold. Easy call when it comes back capped to you though, obviously.

I like your flop 3-bet, you probably have around 30%-35% pot equity and there are 5 other people that have already invested 2SB in the pot. Ton of value on that.

On the turn your pot equity goes down to 20%, you need everyone to call every time and noone to raise any time for this to be +EV--it's not. And you certainly don't have enough fold equity to make this bet worthwhile--this hand is going to a showdown for sure. Check and call here.

You hit your hand on the river and you're not going to 3-bet? UTG could have a boat but he could have a lot of other hands too, I would 3-bet and call a cap.

EDIT: Yeah I thought you had 56s, but you flopped trip fours instead. Postflop is perfect except I would have 3-bet the river, I don't think UTG has you beat here 34% of the time.

[climber]

Nice PokeHer is fast with the numbers. I'm not too familiar with how these numbers work, but...

Equity wise it looks OK for me as long as we are probably 5-6+ handed? Implied odds are gonna be big here but its gonna be really expensive to see the turn or river so I'm not sure you can look at the equity numbers and count on implied odds? The 3 flop cards are going to be most important.

[PokeHer]

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn your pot equity goes down to 20%, you need everyone to call every time and noone to raise any time for this to be +EV--it's not.


[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure his pot equity goes DOWN that much on this turn????

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah mouse is PFR under 5% and under 20% VP$IP but still aggressive postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

a limp-reraise most likely means a high PP, AA/KK, which is why i think u need to three bet the river.

[ QUOTE ]

As much as I hate the fact it gets 3 bet and capped after my first coldcall--that likely means they hold hands that will pay me off big if I actually hit something.

So by that logic, if my intial call was worthwhile I should be even more inclined to call the cap. Makes you start to wonder about the initial call though.

As far as equity preflop..I just downloaded Pokerstove but can't figure out how to make it work.

[/ QUOTE ]

The PF call the first time around was marginal, I suppose I was a little too outspoken. You do need to call it the second time around though. If it were say UTG raise, same number of callers and u're on the sb, i think it's a clearer call. You're essentially last or second to last to act here on the flop which makes a difference. With an MP raiser, u're kind of stuck in the middle. Also, the 1/3 blind structure makes it closer to a fold.

FWIW, I think poker stove is a waste. Although I'm sure others don't.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the turn your pot equity goes down to 20%, you need everyone to call every time and noone to raise any time for this to be +EV--it's not.


[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure his pot equity goes DOWN on this turn????

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man, I thought he had 56s and was on an OESD.

Disregard the turn advice, sorry~!

[ZootMurph]

I would have bet out on the flop. Generally looks like an SB steal of a big pot. You'll get raised by at least one of the preflop raisers. I think the check/raise is nice, but you aren't losing anyone so build the pot rather than trying to protect your hand.

I think a stop and go would have been a better play, as you lost one on the check raise, and everyone became calling stations on the turn. Whereas with a stop and go you may have gotten raised and with many callers on the turn.

Finally, I'd be surprised if UTG raised preflop with 88, 77, 22, 65s, A4, or any other 4s that are beating you, so I'd probably 3 bet the river.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet out on the flop. Generally looks like an SB steal of a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Stealing a capped 7 way pot with a single bet on the flop. I like your avatar anyways.

[climber]

I like einbert's analysis of the postflop play.

I'm curious though einbert how do you know my equity is 30-35% and that it drops to 20% on the turn. I'm not disagreeing I just don't know how to figure that stuff out.

For example the turn bet still intuitively seems +EV to me. The turn is a blank and I gotta believe my hand is still best--why not bet for value. The diamond flush draw--that seems pretty slim to me? These are just my noobish emotions thinking though. I'd prefer hard numbers--but I don't know where they came from.

Anyone else agree with what einbert is saying here.

Also I admit the idea of the river 3bet seems scary to me. After my flop check-3bet I figure I've made my hand pretty clear...but then again maybe people jsut think I'm being retarded. Hmmm...lot to work on here...thanks guys--great replies so far--I'm learning a lot.

[einbert]

Well I'm glad you liked my analysis, but I misread your hole cards as 56s!

Your equity would have gone down on the turn since you didn't make your OESD, but since you have trip fours your equity is increased by the fact that a diamond or overcard didn't hit on the turn. Betting here is definitely correct.

[climber]

Ok thanks for the correction einbert...that makes mroe sense to me.

[climber]

RESULTS:

Long story short UTG shows down pocket 8s for a boat on the river and everyone at the table spends the next 5 minutes telling me what an idiot i was for calling preflop with 54s.

[krishanleong]

Perfect. You have solid preflop equity with great implied odds. This is a nice call with so many people in preflop.

Krishan

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Perfect. You have solid preflop equity with great implied odds. This is a nice call with so many people in preflop.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I don't think Hero's hand will always be as live as it is in PokeHer's sample. (In that sample, only one of Hero's flush cards is out, and none of the 5's and 4's are.)

[Milky]

I think you played it fine. Sucks that he got there on the river but you definitely had the odds PF and couldn't know you were going to get LRR'd.

[krishanleong]

I think most of the time, your hand will be more live.

Krishan

[climber]

I think its +EV and would do it again.

I think the 3 bet the river suggestion is especially interesting and do need to at least learn to consider that move.

This is the kind of hand that does wonders for putting people on tilt when you hit and if you miss like this time they tend to think your the biggest chump in the world--which can also be helpful.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I think most of the time, your hand will be more live.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the straight usually will be. I think the flush, on the other hand, usually won't. And when this many people see the flop, I think often a pair card of Hero's or two will be out as well, in hands like A4, K5s, 44, and so on.

[ZootMurph]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet out on the flop. Generally looks like an SB steal of a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Stealing a capped 7 way pot with a single bet on the flop. I like your avatar anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point I was making is you aren't going to scare anyone away with that bet, and you'll probably still be raised by the usual suspects and called by the usual suspects. Therefore, you are basic building the pot to the same amount without scaring people with a check/raise. I think that's what you want here.

I should change my avatar to baseball, but I'm not a Phillies fan, and my Reds haven't been doing well over recent years. I'll just wait until next year and see if hockey is worth watching/playing and put the Flyers logo back.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Equity wise it looks OK for me as long as we are probably 5-6+ handed? Implied odds are gonna be big here but its gonna be really expensive to see the turn or river so I'm not sure you can look at the equity numbers and count on implied odds? The 3 flop cards are going to be most important.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's important to understand that implied odds go down when you have to put in a lot of bets preflop. This is because you have more bets to make up postflop. True, others will be more tied to the pot, which makes making up bets easier.

One problem for a hand like 54s, that doesn't exist as much for, say, 22, is that you'll sometimes catch just enough of the flop that you have to stay in and chase, because of the pot size. And chasing can be expensive, especially if you're up against players who like their hands a lot.

With 22 on the other hand, you're more likely to flop big or to miss completely. And when you miss completely with 22 in a multiway pot, it's easy enough to give the hand up when you don't have the odds to continue chasing a set (which will usually take place on the flop but sometimes on the turn).

Anyway, I don't have a definite opinion on the initial preflop call, but I don't think you have a hand that really wants a big pot preflop. And I think your preflop equity, whatever it might be, is more significant in this case than implied odds.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet out on the flop. Generally looks like an SB steal of a big pot. You'll get raised by at least one of the preflop raisers. I think the check/raise is nice, but you aren't losing anyone so build the pot rather than trying to protect your hand.

I think a stop and go would have been a better play, as you lost one on the check raise, and everyone became calling stations on the turn. Whereas with a stop and go you may have gotten raised and with many callers on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised you think that overs wouldn't fold on that flop to two sb's. I would want to get rid of the overs on the flop. It's a big enough pot to fret about runner runners.

Do you think the stop and go would produce a turn raise by one of the prf's? I'm not sure it would. I know that I'd raise with an overpair on the turn, but I don't think a mouse would.

I think he should try and protect his hand, and should do so on the flop.

[CostaRicaBill]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet out on the flop. Generally looks like an SB steal of a big pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually checkraise the flop or wait until the turn to come to life if I flop trips in the SB or BB with a board like 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif,4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,4/images/graemlins/heart.gif. In my experience betting out will often freeze the field or even fold out everyone including the pre flop raiser.

[meep_42]

The pot is over 30SB on the flop -- overs would be correct to call FOUR bets cold.

Hero has huge equity and two PF raisers to his left. Check-raise all the way to build yourself a nice fat pot and get paid off by the AA-TTs out there (whose equity just dropped to about 8%)

-d

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's important to understand that implied odds go down when you have to put in a lot of bets preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was only 2 bets preflop. This is important.

Krishan

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
It was only 2 bets preflop. This is important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is why I don't have a definite opinion on the initial preflop call. My guess is that it's slightly negative EV, but it is just a guess.

If, on the other hand, Hero somehow knew it was going to get limp-reraised and capped behind him, then I think it would be an easy fold when the action first gets to him.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
If, on the other hand, Hero somehow knew it was going to get limp-reraised and capped behind him, then I think it would be an easy fold when the action first gets to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree but this is a pointless line of speculation. I think the first call is +EV.

Krishan

[jt1]

Preflop depends on the table, I'd think. Will the original preflop raiser auto bet the turn. Are the UTG's calling stations, etc?

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is over 30SB on the flop -- overs would be correct to call FOUR bets cold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Most overs are drawing to a runner, and they should know this. BB had 88, but I'd put him on AA with a limp re-raise, and the cap by the original pfr indicates a large overpair. Lets say the two UTG's have 33 or 10Js. They should call 2 bets cold, but not with the flop capper yet to act, and the original flop bettor possibly 3 betting. I'd do everything I can to limit the field.

[meep_42]

AKo has, say 3 outs on the flop.

Pot is 31ish SB, say the action is B/R/RR/CAP/Hero. Hero is getting 31+4+3+2+1 = 41/4, and likely at least 44:4, that's probably a fold, yes (in the most extreme example), but I don't think you're protecting much by betting out here, so I pump the flop for as much value as I can.

-d

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd do everything I can to limit the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like meep 42, I doubt Hero can do much real protecting on the flop. In a pot this size, driving out a backdoor flush could have value, and I'd like to get pocket pairs to fold too. And if a gutshot got out, that would be terrific.

The thing is, though, I think it's going to be very hard to drive out a pocket pair. And I think overcards + backdoor flush hands will probably stay in too. A gutshot isn't going anywhere. The kind of hand that might fold to a couple of bets cold is, I think, Q9o, and I'd really rather that hand stay in.

I'm not sure what the best way is to get the most bets in, but getting the most bets in is what I'd be looking to do.

I guess probably I'd lead the flop, hoping to get raised. (I'd be a little worried that a checkraise or check/3-bet would scare my opponents and slow down the turn action.)

But I think Hero's approach worked pretty well too. And I wonder, if Hero checked again on the turn like Meep suggested, if someone would bet the turn. My guess is that someone would, so I think I'm starting to like the plan of trying to checkraise the flop and the turn.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is over 30SB on the flop -- overs would be correct to call FOUR bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that they are drawing close to dead, I disagree.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a sample of possible hands and their respective preflop pot equities:

pokenum -h 5s 4s - as ac - kd qd - td th - qc 9c - 6c 6d - 8h 7h
Holdem Hi: 501942 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 4s 72359 14.42 429449 85.56 134 0.03 0.144
As Ac 140912 28.07 360896 71.90 134 0.03 0.281
Kd Qd 55146 10.99 444077 88.47 2719 0.54 0.112
Td Th 66959 13.34 434849 86.63 134 0.03 0.133
Qc 9c 47366 9.44 451857 90.02 2719 0.54 0.097
6c 6d 48901 9.74 452907 90.23 134 0.03 0.097
8h 7h 67580 13.46 434228 86.51 134 0.03 0.135

[/ QUOTE ]
If you conveniently assume that only one of your spade is in someone's hand, then yes this playable. At the time you were acting, you didn't know that. With this many people in, someone is going to hold a bigger hand suited in spades (especially since you hold two small ones, so all of the normally playable spades are live) reasonably often.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is over 30SB on the flop -- overs would be correct to call FOUR bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that they are drawing close to dead, I disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't exactly get SSH out of my car, since i'm at work, but I beleive it's something along the lines of needing more evidence than a feeling to fold when getting odds to draw in a large pot. I can't say i'd fold any reasonable draw/overcards here for 3 bets on the flop.

And, why would you want to protect the pot from players who are drawing dead? Get as much of their money in as you can, which, in this case, is a c/r on the flop.

-d

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't say i'd fold any reasonable draw/overcards here for 3 bets on the flop.

And, why would you want to protect the pot from players who are drawing dead? Get as much of their money in as you can, which, in this case, is a c/r on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. you'd take 3 bets for a chance of spiking a draw? I wouldn't. I'd call with a pp, but i want to at least try to persuade someone to drop it.

2. they're not drawing dead if they've got runer runner potential.


that's the way i'd play it, but i could be wrong

[bernie]

You do realize that implied odds isn't just what you make postflop? It has a direct relation as to the amount you put in preflop.

Fold preflop. If blind was 2/3, i can see calling and maybe gettting stuck seeing the flop.

28 bet flop, Im looking for a strong move to pull somewhere.

Call on the flop. C/r the turn. You have a few callers in between here with 2 flop aggressors. You may as well try and trap them for double on the turn. It's not the most draw happy board. A check 3 bet of this flop will freeze the table on the big streets. You don't want that.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
AKo has, say 3 outs on the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

3 outs to what?

Any pkt pair has the odds to call, but not any overs.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the best way is to get the most bets in, but getting the most bets in is what I'd be looking to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not what i'd be looking to do. How big does the pot have to be before you start thinking of trying to maximize your chances of winning it? 50 bets? This pot isn't big enough?

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is that someone would, so I think I'm starting to like the plan of trying to checkraise the flop and the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly are you representing on this board that come alive and check 3 bet, then check the turn? Why not call the flop, it may get 3 bet behind you or even capped, then c/r the turn?

Coming alive and 3 betting on this flop is usually an action killer for the turn.

b

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot is over 30SB on the flop -- overs would be correct to call FOUR bets cold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that they are drawing close to dead, I disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]
...
I can't exactly get SSH out of my car, since i'm at work, but I beleive it's something along the lines of needing more evidence than a feeling to fold when getting odds to draw in a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the fact that it was capped preflop and you are now facing four bets cold on the flop isn't enough "evidence" for you to figure out that spiking (say) a jack on the turn to make a pair isn't winning the pot for you, then I can't really help you.

And saying that you "are getting odds to draw" is just not true, which was my point. If you have no outs, you aren't getting odds. It's clear that you don't have outs in this scenario (facing four cold with, for the sake of argument, QJ). Similarly, you can call with 45 on a 9TJ flop because you have "outs" to a pair, and you don't think there is enough "evidence" to prove that you don't, but that's silly. Outs mean cards that win for out. It doesn't mean cards that nominally improve your hand.

[ QUOTE ]

And, why would you want to protect the pot from players who are drawing dead?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, now you're just making stuff up. My post was one sentence long and said that they are not correct to call four cold. Where did it say anthing about hero protecting the pot? What are you talking about?

[meep_42]

I understand this, but Hero's bet, and the PFRs Raise/3-bet still offer no evidecnce whatsoever that AKo can't spike an ace or a king and win the hand. It says that it's unlikely, but not impossible.

And condescention doesn't suit you.

-d

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand this, but Hero's bet, and the PFRs Raise/3-bet still offer no evidecnce whatsoever that AKo can't spike an ace or a king and win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I give up. Either you don't know what the word "evidence" means or you are just trolling. (And you had said that we were talking about four bets cold, not three, and you were talking about overcards in general, not specifcally AK, which is the best possible overcards, so you are already backpedaling, but it doesn't matter because even AK is drawing dead).

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Call on the flop. C/r the turn. You have a few callers in between here with 2 flop aggressors. You may as well try and trap them for double on the turn. It's not the most draw happy board. A check 3 bet of this flop will freeze the table on the big streets. You don't want that.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
How big does the pot have to be before you start thinking of trying to maximize your chances of winning it? 50 bets? This pot isn't big enough?

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I'm confused about how these two quotes fit together. Will the turn checkraise you talk about in the first quote maximize Hero's chances of winning the pot?

I can see that it might if the checkraise scares someone into folding a pocket pair for one more bet. But how often will that happen?

Also, though, I can see that if the turn bettor then 3-bets the checkraise, the other players will be faced with two cold. Plus, there could be a bet and a raise before the action gets back to Hero on the turn.

Anyway, though, I'm a little confused about what action you're hoping for on the turn in your recommended line.

[meep_42]

I was saying 4 bets to impose the worst possible scenario. (I hadn't done the math, I assumed, turns out it was a little short and you'd have to be insane to call 4 bets cold with overcards anyway -- it was an example)

3 bets is probably the most the field is going to see here, can we agree on that? (Bet, PFRs raise and 3-bet) I don't really see that as being particularly likely, but it's certainly not unlikely. So, I used 3-bets. And by overcards, I meant good overcards, not likely dominated trash (AK/AQ/AJ/KQ-types).

Not to mention that YOU DON'T WANT THESE HANDS TO FOLD, even correctly.

So, yeah, i'm backpedaling because I made a quick post that wasn't 100% correct and i'm willing to admit that.

But betting out here does absolutely nothing to protect your hand - all hands that can outdraw you are calling except maybe 22/33/55, which have tiny equity anyway. The only hands that fold are the ones you want calling. You want money from the people drawing dead. Let the PFRs duke it out in a battle of wills on the flop, while you have them dead or drawing to 2 outs.

I'm not sure you can protect your hand on the turn, either, so I think this needs to be c/r'd for value as well (not 3-betting the turn).

The pot is gigantic, and while I might WANT to win the hand now, or knock out hands that can outdraw, it is IMPOSSIBLE to knock them out on the flop.

-d

[bernie]

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Will the turn checkraise you talk about in the first quote maximize Hero's chances of winning the pot?


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This is a scary turn c/r. This may get some to fold even with decent draws that may have the odds to call. This should also take care of some pocket pairs that may still be hanging around. Some will even put you on a FH here.

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I can see that it might if the checkraise scares someone into folding a pocket pair for one more bet. But how often will that happen?


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Often enough. Say 2 guys with pps fold, that's 4 outs you just cleaned. Say 1 pp folds and a weakie folds a gutshot. That's 6. That's alot in a pot this size. However, a case can be made for keeping in opponents drawing dead.

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Also, though, I can see that if the turn bettor then 3-bets the checkraise, the other players will be faced with two cold. Plus, there could be a bet and a raise before the action gets back to Hero on the turn.


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To most players and opponents you will face, having someone wake up and c/r on a turn with a board like this is scary. Anyone 3 betting, unless it's a near maniac, has you beat. Usually, the initial bettor will call enabling others to call behind who aren't scared off by the c/r, but will now have put in a double bet on the turn which can, 'effectively', hurt their odds to whatever hand they are drawing to.

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Anyway, though, I'm a little confused about what action you're hoping for on the turn in your recommended line.

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Looks like Im hoping someone will bet so I can raise maybe getting someone out who may draw out on the end while charging the max for the priviledge of doing it.

b

[Nick C]

Okay, thanks.

I agree that a flop cold-call followed by a turn checkraise would be pretty scary.

When I was looking at the postflop play in this hand, I was thinking that, while it would be nice to get certain hands to fold in this enormous pot, there wasn't much Hero could do to accomplish this goal, so he might as well do what he could to make the pot as big as possible and hope his hand holds up.

That might have been too pessimistic, though. Also, I can see that waiting for the turn to checkraise could actually get more money in while also improving Hero's chances of winning the hand.

[climber]

OK a quick summary of what I learned--had to read all that a couple times over.

1) I learned that "implied odds" and "preflop equity" are things I should be thinking about and comparing. i.e. if I don't have much preflop equity in a given hand maybe I have some implied odds... I knew what these terms meant but didn't really know how/when to use them.

2)I learned that implied odds isn't just about what is yet to come but needs to also consider the bets already put into the pot. (Or at least in a case like this where I'd need to put in a couple bets to continue I need to think about that instead of just saying, "Oh, I've got great implied odds.")

3)I learned that I need to stop and think in big pots a little more instead of just "playing aggressive." This is something I've noticed a lot. I often choose the wrong times to be aggressive or do it in such a way that it doesn't present a logical story.

Thanks especially to NickC and bernie for taking it to the next level and figuring what I now think would be the best line and in this case very well might have won me the pot with a flop call and a turn check-raise to fold out UTG's eights.

I'm gonna post here more often.