First Hand Post, KQs

[Kailia Marie]

Hi guys,

This is my first hand post which I found interesting. Hopefully you guys won't hate it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Paradise Poker 5/10 9 players.

Player Reads:
SB - Slightly loose, will coldcall offsuit broadways preflop, but plays decently postflop.

BB - Unknown player. This is his very first hand at the table.

I am UTG+1 and raise K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. MP calls. Button calls. SB calls. BB calls.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players, 10 sb's)

SB bets. BB raises. I 3-bet. LP folds. Button folds. SB caps. BB calls. I call.

Turn: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 11 bb's)

SB bets. BB calls. I call.

River: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players, 14 bb's)

SB bets. BB folds. I fold too.

All comments welcome.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[Hellmouth]

I know that you think you are beaten by a jack, but I would pay one more bet to see. Top two pair may be beaten but there are 14BB in the pot (including a lot of yours). You only need to win 1/15 times (~7%) to make this call correct. Are you more then 93% shure that you are beaten?

Btw. because of the heavy betting on the flop, a KT is a strong possibility. I might have folded it right there rather than getting into it for so many bets. But once you decided to play through the turn, you might as well call for value on the river.

Raising on the turn with two pair might also solidify your situation. If villian calls or reraises, you can be more sure that it is a straight draw. If villian also has a two pair, he/she might fold to a raise when a king comes out.

Greg

[mr pink]

hey kailia,

hand looks good except the river. with your read on the small blind, couldn't he be playing QT this way? with a 15BB pot and closing the action, i find a call with top 2 pair and hope... i think you're good here 1 time in 15.

[jason_t]

I like it. I'm not paying him off on the river either.

[QTip]

Ed Miller Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=462860&Fo rum=All_Forums&Words="fold%20too%20damn"&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=462860&Search=true&whe re=bodysub&Name=43&daterange=1&newerval=3&newertyp e=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post462860)

Welcome! Hope to hear more from you. I would read this post. You're probably beat, but as it's already been stated here, you're good for a call in this large pot....pay off.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i like your style.

[QTip]

Question here though...anyone wait for a rag (safe card)on the turn to raise (3 bet)? A gutshot already has insufficient odds to call..

[chief444]

I would call the river and expect to see QT a small percentage of the time. But it's close.

Nice flop 3 bet. Everything but the river looks pretty standard.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi guys,

This is my first hand post which I found interesting. Hopefully you guys won't hate it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Paradise Poker 5/10 9 players.

Player Reads:
SB - Slightly loose, will coldcall offsuit broadways preflop, but plays decently postflop.

BB - Unknown player. This is his very first hand at the table.

I am UTG+1 and raise K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. MP calls. Button calls. SB calls. BB calls.

Flop: Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players, 10 sb's)

SB bets. BB raises. I 3-bet. LP folds. Button folds. SB caps. BB calls. I call.

Turn: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 11 bb's)

SB bets. BB calls. I call.

River: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players, 14 bb's)

SB bets. BB folds. I fold too.

All comments welcome.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[/ QUOTE ]

Once BB folds, I think you have to call the river.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice flop 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're not waiting for a safe card to raise? Why 3 bet?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nice flop 3 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're not waiting for a safe card to raise? Why 3 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cuz any J will come along.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Once BB folds, I think you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you muck even if he was an overcaller?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once BB folds, I think you have to call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you muck even if he was an overcaller?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cuz then I think there is no way you are good 1/16 times. One of them has the J.

[QTip]

Any J behind her should cap (at least I would)....they're not going anywhere. That's one of the reasons I would wait for the safe turn.

[QTip]

If BB just overcalls, I'm not putting him on a J.

I'd muck if he raised.

[chief444]

If BB's a thinking player he would likely just call with a J thinking there's a good chance he's splitting with SB and would want you to overcall.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
BB - Unknown player.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be exceptional expert river play...I'm not putting an unknown in that category.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising on the turn with two pair might also solidify your situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising the turn is really awful because she would have to call a three-bet.

Well-played but I think I would have called the river.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
If BB's a thinking player he would likely just call with a J thinking there's a good chance he's splitting with SB and would want you to overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about the turn though? he called there as well, yet he raised the flop.
did he raise the flop (say with J and a pair) only to turn passive when he
caught his prefered draw? he could have T9s, Q9s, QdXd type hands just as
easily. but obviously there is some potential for a J or a meek set some
non-zero % of the time that reduces your chances of winning.

i'd absolutely have to call this HU. QT could play this way (and the read
says he doesn't need suited broadways to cold-call) 1 in 16 times.

edit: Q, fix that wide message...

[QTip]

Talk to me about waiting for the safe turn chief. I think the bottom 2 pair in SSHE is a perfect example of this like page 160(I know your buddy has your book - I think that was you)....but remember we had 2 pair there and the board was almost identical and Ed had us waiting for the safe turn to into raise mode. Here we only have 1 pair.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
If BB just overcalls, I'm not putting him on a J.

I'd muck if he raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a J, he may not raise.

[QTip]

I belive that's a rare player. I'd make this call whether he comes along or not.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Any J behind her should cap (at least I would)....they're not going anywhere. That's one of the reasons I would wait for the safe turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be a horrific mistake.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I belive that's a rare player. I'd make this call whether he comes along or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I wouldn't.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
That would be a horrific mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

capping with a jack or waiting of the safe turn.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That would be a horrific mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

capping with a jack or waiting of the safe turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Capping with a J, as if you get 3-bet, you are likely staring AJ in the face.

[QTip]

I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm saying, if she 3 bet and I had somthing like QJo behind here, I would cap. I have wonderful odds to call and might as well cap while I'm at it.

I'm talking about how a 3 bet on the flop isn't protecting her from anything. I think it may have been best here to just call the flop raise and wait for the safe turn. If the turn was safe, I would have raised there. Since the King came, I would have just called down from there.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Capping with a J, as if you get 3-bet, you are likely staring AJ in the face.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. We should probably discount our outs with about 50% giving us an equity of at most 16%. Capping would be bad.

[Nick Royale]

How many outs are you giving K Q J and 8 here?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Miller Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=63374&F_Board=micro&Threa d=462860&partnumber=&postmarker=)

[/ QUOTE ]

This post did not advocate throwing the skill of hand reading out the window. It is not an excuse to call down in every large pot. When your read says you are beat, as Kailia is here, fold.

[QTip]

Agreed....top two pair is good to close this action on the river for 1 bet in this large pot.

She's new here, and I'm not sure where she's at with this stuff. Some people might think a lay down here was brilliant. I don't think that Ed or most of us here would think that because of things like the post I put there.

[QTip]

Nick:

I'll answer your question, but I don't think your getting the jist of mine. My question is "Why 3 bet the flop?"

8 - maybe 3
J - I'd go to almost a full 8
Q - not many
K - 4

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Miller Post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=63374&F_Board=micro&Threa d=462860&partnumber=&postmarker=)

[/ QUOTE ]

This post did not advocate throwing the skill of hand reading out the window. It is not an excuse to call down in every large pot. When your read says you are beat, as Kailia is here, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

the read says will cold-call with offsuit broadways.

a decent player can play exactly that way with QT (or Q9s probably).
these hands makeup at least 1/16th the range of hands we can put the villian on.

i'm not sure how we can put the villian on a set or a J with 94% confidence.

[Nick Royale]

If 3-betted to you I would give an 8 2 outs (still lose to KJ and split to another J). K 2 outs (split to J lose to AJ). Q 1 out (still lose to KJ AQ QT etc.). J about none. Total 5 outs. Maybe I'm beeing a little pesimistic but this never becomes even a call for me.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll answer your question, but I don't think your getting the jist of mine. My question is "Why 3 bet the flop?"

[/ QUOTE ]
I just think playing a single J would be impossible to a 3-bet and even if we have a QJ we would have to fold to a 3-bet. That might be a reason to 3-bet. (I'm actually not sure)

[jskills]

Calling the turn is ok, but you could raise with two pair. He may hold a jack of course, but this is not certain.

Folding the river is just not good. The pot is too big to let go for just one bet.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the turn is ok, but you could raise with two pair. He may hold a jack of course, but this is not certain.

Folding the river is just not good. The pot is too big to let go for just one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the turn, are you going to be able to correctly fold to a three-bet?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling the turn is ok, but you could raise with two pair. He may hold a jack of course, but this is not certain.

Folding the river is just not good. The pot is too big to let go for just one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the turn, are you going to be able to correctly fold to a three-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

it'd be incorrect to fold to a 3-bet with boat outs...

edit: nm, you said don't raise b/c you have to call earlier.. i guess this was a rhetorical question..

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise the turn, are you going to be able to correctly fold to a three-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a huge mistake to raise the turn. Get to the river cheaply, and fill up.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a huge mistake to raise the turn. Get to the river cheaply, and fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

So it's a huge mistake since you are certain SB holds a jack and you want to see the river cheaply to make a boat?

Can we be so sure SB is not playing 2 pair (QT, T9s, or Q9s) as well?

[Thigh]

I don't think anyone is advocating throwing the skill of hand reading out the window. But she labelled him, 'Slightly loose'.

I think what they're saying is that given the percentage of winning with her hand and due to the large size of the pot, that she should have called unless she was close to 100% sure he had the J.

[QTip]

Nick:

I think we're all messed up here.

Go back to the original hand posted. I want to know if you 3 bet that flop (like she did) and why.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Nick:

I think we're all messed up here.

Go back to the original hand posted. I want to know if you 3 bet that flop (like she did) and why.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 3-bet the flop. The reasons? We probably have the best hand, if we don't we're almost certainly drawing live, we want to find out where SB stands. If SB caps we can get out of this hand a lot cheaper than if we wait to raise the turn.

[QTip]

Thanks for the response...finally got on the same page with someone /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

OK. I think their a lot of turn cards that would seriously cripple our hand. I don't want to see an Ace, I don't want to see a King, I don't want to see an 8 and I don't really care to see a 9 or T. I think this is a good time to wait for the safe turn. I'm thinking of the example in SSHE like page 160 where we have 2 pair and wait for the safe turn on a very similar board. Why are we not waiting for the safe turn here. If a rag fell on the turn, I would love to raise one bet on the turn.

If not, how do you feel this situation differs from the bottom 2 pair example in SSHE?

[einbert]

Viable plan I guess. If a blank hits the turn and it's 2BB to you though, aren't you going to be put to a tougher decision? Seems like a prudent fold but you could very easily be drawing live. That scenario is less likely to happen if you 3-bet the flop (and if it's capped on the flop and 2BB to you on the turn I think you can find a fold getting something like 7-1(?)).

[QTip]

perhaps...I was just thinking that the application from SSHE seemed to hit this hand pretty direct as far as waiting for the turn to protect.

[Trix]

You beat QT,AQ,Q9, so calling the river is probably a good idea.