River decision

[RED_RAIN]

Guys are pretty straight forward bad players on this site. Call down with trash but when they bet they usually got it. I'm wondering about river. I know nothing about Roscoe. Jeff often over plays his hands.

Hand #26011747 at table: Table TH82 10/20
Started: Wed Mar 02 22:30:23 2005

CJ's Hand is at seat 1 with $399.41
Robbbbert is at seat 2 with $621.00
deexter is at seat 3 with $397.00
kestutis is at seat 4 with $22.50
RED_RAIN is at seat 5 with $969.00
Roscoe is at seat 6 with $624.00
sara567 is at seat 7 with $1317.00
Jeff5595 is at seat 8 with $903.50
SPECIAL"K" is at seat 9 with $1807.00

kestutis posts the large blind $10.00
deexter posts the small blind $5.00

deexter: --, --
kestutis: --, --
RED_RAIN: Ad, Ac
Roscoe: --, --
sara567: --, --
Jeff5595: --, --
SPECIAL"K": --, --
CJ's Hand: --, --
Robbbbert: --, --

Pre-flop:

RED_RAIN: Raise $20.00
Roscoe: Call $20.00
sara567: Fold
Jeff5595: Raise $30.00
SPECIAL"K": Fold
CJ's Hand: Fold
Robbbbert: Fold
deexter: Fold
kestutis: Fold
RED_RAIN: Raise $40.00
Roscoe: Call $40.00
Jeff5595: Call $40.00

Flop (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d):

RED_RAIN: Bet $10.00
Roscoe: Call $10.00
Jeff5595: Raise $20.00
RED_RAIN: Raise $30.00
Roscoe: Call $30.00
Jeff5595: Call $30.00

Turn (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d, Jh):

RED_RAIN: Bet $20.00
Roscoe: Call $20.00
Jeff5595: Raise $40.00
RED_RAIN: Call $40.00
Roscoe: Call $40.00

River (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d, Jh, 3h):

RED_RAIN: Check
Roscoe: Bet $20.00
Jeff5595: Call $20.00

Jeff hasn't slowed down yet and Roscoe wakes up?
RED_RAIN: ?

[eric5148]

You're beat, but damn, it's a huge pot. Did you call?

[mr pink]

it sucks but folding would be a disaster if you're actually ahead

[RED_RAIN]

I folded.

Roscoe shows AJ, Jeff shows AJ for a split pot.

I was talking this over with bicyclekick and he thought it was a pretty bad fold.

I was reconsidering the river action, yes, Roscoe waking up doesn't look good, especially after all the action PFR and on the flop and turn. So we are hoping he has AJ.

Since it went bet and call, we should call. If it went bet and raise, then we could fold.

I understand my mistake, it's embarassing, just a wake up, don't fold in big pots when closing the action for one bet.

I think the reason I made this mistake was because I got caught up in the fact I have tried to play my hand very aggressive preflop, flop, and turn, and kept finding constant aggression from Jeff and then one person stuck inbetween all of a sudden waking up threw me off so much I folded incorrectly.

It's often easier to get things right when you have time to think things out. Here's to becoming better.

[bakku]

There is no way in hell I'm folding here for one bet closing the action.

[ZootMurph]

You have to call 1 bet in a 19 BB pot... so you think you're losing 95% of the time here? I don't, and you really have to call.

Time to reread some Ed Miller posts, LOL.

[chief444]

Don't be to embarrassed. I made a very similar fold last night with even worse results. The pot wasn't quite as big but big enough. It happens. Even though it's a mistake it isn't as big of a mistake as it feels.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Time to reread some Ed Miller posts

[/ QUOTE ]

I removed the LOL from the posts, because I almost puked when I saw you folded this river closing the action for 1 bet....that's serious bad.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though it's a mistake it isn't as big of a mistake as it feels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Liar. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though it's a mistake it isn't as big of a mistake as it feels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Serious!? To me, from what I've read, this is THE mistake not to make.

In saying so, I'm not trying to embarass anyone...just have read so much of Ed Miller ranting on this topic...

[mr pink]

its called a brain fart

[chief444]

I never said it wasn't a mistake. Clearly it is and he knows that. I just meant it "feels" like a 20 BB mistake when it happens but in reality it's closer to a 1-2 BB mistake. Still huge. Just not as huge as it seems when it happens.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
but in reality it's closer to a 1-2 BB mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand that reality....where do you get that figure?

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but in reality it's closer to a 1-2 BB mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand that reality....where do you get that figure?

[/ QUOTE ]

He is estimating the probability he has the best hand.

If he is ahead ~10% of the time (on this action), it is a 1 BB mistake.
If he is ahead ~15% of the time, it is a 2 BB mistake.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand that reality....where do you get that figure?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's just a guess. But think about it. If he makes this fold 10000XXXXXXXXXX times how much per hand is he really losing? Most of the time given the action he's behind. In other words, if it's a 19 BB pot and you think you'll win exactly 1 in 20 times it doesn't matter what you do. If you think you'll win 1 in 10 times and you fold it every time you're only losing 1 BB per hand, on average, by folding.

[QTip]

I hear ya..thanks for the explanation. It's when these types of folds become a pattern that there's a problem...

I'm trying to remember a time in the last 20,000 hands (that's the size of my current database) that I've laid down AA on any river...and I can't remember one. I'll have to check when I get home.

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
It's when these types of folds become a pattern that there's a problem

[/ QUOTE ]

Over my 250,000 hands of killing every level from .5/1 - 5/10 I don't have a pattern of making these folds.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to remember a time in the last 20,000 hands (that's the size of my current database) that I've laid down AA on any river...and I can't remember one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow a whole 20,000. Good job, you are running well or calling down too much.

For the other posters who know me, yes, I had a brain fart, this is a pretty rare mistake for me to actually fold the best hand. I'm not perfect 100% of the time 100% of my hands. I hope others can learn from this hand about not folding in big pots when closing the action for one bet.

[QTip]

Red Rain...I think you got too excited....I'm not ripping on you at all. I'm saying it's a bad fold and you agreed.

Honestly...you're probably a bettor card player than I am, and I'm almost always on this forum as a student. I've not crushed all levels. In fact, down at 1/2 and only at .5BB/100 at 2/4. Only good results are at 5/1 for 5BB/100.

I just invested in PT about 3 weeks ago, so that's all the hand history I have to evaluate...

Running well with AA, I'm at 73% winning showdowns which I think would be standard.

[mr pink]

yeah i think he gets that it was a bad fold /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[QTip]

ya think? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Actually though..I'm really glad he posted it because I did learn something from the chief and Octopus. I wouldn't have seen this fold in that light and, seriously, probably went a bit on tilt after that. Knowing about the size of this mistake as a "once in a great while" mistake, will help me to calm down more after something like this...

[mr pink]

dealt QQ in the big blind

utg limps, folded to the hijack who limps, co limps, button raises, sb folds, i 3-bet, they all call.

flop: 9 7 2 rainbow (5 players - 15 small bets)

i bet, utg folds, rest call.

turn: K - completing rainbow (4 players - 9.5 big bets)

i bet, they all call.

river: K (4 players - 13.5 big bet)

i check, checked to the button who bets, i fold... /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Guys are pretty straight forward bad players on this site. Call down with trash but when they bet they usually got it. I'm wondering about river. I know nothing about Roscoe. Jeff often over plays his hands.

Hand #26011747 at table: Table TH82 10/20
Started: Wed Mar 02 22:30:23 2005

CJ's Hand is at seat 1 with $399.41
Robbbbert is at seat 2 with $621.00
deexter is at seat 3 with $397.00
kestutis is at seat 4 with $22.50
RED_RAIN is at seat 5 with $969.00
Roscoe is at seat 6 with $624.00
sara567 is at seat 7 with $1317.00
Jeff5595 is at seat 8 with $903.50
SPECIAL"K" is at seat 9 with $1807.00

kestutis posts the large blind $10.00
deexter posts the small blind $5.00

deexter: --, --
kestutis: --, --
RED_RAIN: Ad, Ac
Roscoe: --, --
sara567: --, --
Jeff5595: --, --
SPECIAL"K": --, --
CJ's Hand: --, --
Robbbbert: --, --

Pre-flop:

RED_RAIN: Raise $20.00
Roscoe: Call $20.00
sara567: Fold
Jeff5595: Raise $30.00
SPECIAL"K": Fold
CJ's Hand: Fold
Robbbbert: Fold
deexter: Fold
kestutis: Fold
RED_RAIN: Raise $40.00
Roscoe: Call $40.00
Jeff5595: Call $40.00

Flop (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d):

RED_RAIN: Bet $10.00
Roscoe: Call $10.00
Jeff5595: Raise $20.00
RED_RAIN: Raise $30.00
Roscoe: Call $30.00
Jeff5595: Call $30.00

Turn (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d, Jh):

RED_RAIN: Bet $20.00
Roscoe: Call $20.00
Jeff5595: Raise $40.00
RED_RAIN: Call $40.00
Roscoe: Call $40.00

River (Board: 5d, 10d, 9d, Jh, 3h):

RED_RAIN: Check
Roscoe: Bet $20.00
Jeff5595: Call $20.00

Jeff hasn't slowed down yet and Roscoe wakes up?
RED_RAIN: ?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is over 20 bets in there. I think you call, as more than 1 in 20 you'll be shown KK and QQ, KK and KK, QQ and QQ and other wierd combos of big pairs.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time given the action he's behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that is true at all. I think many wou play K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif or maybe Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif like the agressive villain in this hand. I would NOT slow down with AA until deep into the turn.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
Over my 250,000 hands of killing every level from .5/1 - 5/10 I don't have a pattern of making these folds.


[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you've played 250k hands. I'm at about that mark and I play about twice as many hands as you. I also started before you. Maybe you're at 100-150k?

STill, i agree, you don't make folds like this a lot, but it seems like you get off making them /images/graemlins/wink.gif...

[chief444]

Yeah, that's a bad one. That's probably more like a 6-7 BB mistake or worse. /images/graemlins/wink.gif