Thank You, Ed Miller [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 06:20 AM

For helping me avoid making a "good laydown" in a huge pot. This hand really brings your point home. Even when it happens only once in a while, hands like these make up for all the crying calls and more. And to think, for a second I actually considered folding....

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 caps, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (28 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (21.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

River: (25.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

mack848

03-01-2005, 06:29 AM

Out of interest, what would you estimate the odds are that neither an UTG raiser, 3-bettor, capper or 3 other cold callers of the cap has a King?

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 06:29 AM

I can't believe you even considered laying this down.
This is an easy call.

The action on the turn tells me a lot.
But even without that take on the situation, I would still call this fast and grumble about not being able to raise it.

jt1

03-01-2005, 06:32 AM

I shouldn't belittle you, but I can't help myself. If there's an easier call out there, I can't think of it.

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 06:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Out of interest, what would you estimate the odds are that neither an UTG raiser, 3-bettor, capper or 3 other cold callers of the cap has a King?

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, the capper was a maniac who had previously capped (much to my dismay) another hand with J8o where I had AA and flopped 88T-- to fleece me of 6 BB postflop.

So it was the other 3 bettor and the coldcallers I was mostly worried about. Given that I had 2 aces, the odds of their holding a K go up substantially, because I've cut all the possible A-hands in half. I don't feel like doing the math right now, but I think it's safe to say I got real lucky.

gm

jt1

03-01-2005, 06:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So it was the other 3 bettor and the coldcallers I was mostly worried about. Given that I had 2 aces, the odds of their holding a K go up substantially, because I've cut all the possible A-hands in half. I don't feel like doing the math right now, but I think it's safe to say I got real lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

By lucky do you mean that you don't think that you had the odds to call, but made the call anyway and still won?

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 06:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If there's an easier call out there, I can't think of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There needs to be a moratorium on "easiest" comments where it is clearly rhetorical but being passed of as literal. You want to know what the easiest call is? When the guy caps you on the river and you have the nuts.

With specific reads, I could imagine situations where the call I made was clearly wrong.

Besides, I only considered folding for a split second /images/graemlins/smile.gif

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

By lucky do you mean that you don't think that you had the odds to call, but made the call anyway and still won?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think I had the ODDS to call, but I also think I was a big underdog. It's just that the odds offered a good enough overlay to make up for my disadvantage. But if I played this hand over 10 times, I'd be lucky to win 2 of them -- still WAY more than enought to justify the call.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 06:43 AM

I don't understand why you believe there was a normal chance of your opponents holding a King after the turn action.

jt1

03-01-2005, 06:48 AM

I re-read your post and you must have been up against a bunch of medium to high pairs. MP1 must have been a maniac. The flop was such that it's unlikely anyone had a piece of it, so that just leaves the Kings which someone must have at least half the time. After all you'd think one of those callers on the flop is going for the king high flush, but actually upon further review those odds go down quite a bit. Even the dumbest of players lay down KQ when it is capped before it even gets to them. The only person who is likely to have a King is UTG, and I think you said he was a maniac...

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 06:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you believe there was a normal chance of your opponents holding a King after the turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 3 callers. You think a K is guaranteed to raise here after all the PF and flop aggression? You think that check/call means we are safe? You don't think at least 1 AK is likely after 5 people see the flop for 4 bets? We have much more than a normal chance of being up against a K. It is highly likely.

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 07:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The only person who is likely to have a King is UTG, and I think you said he was a maniac...

[/ QUOTE ]

MP1 was the maniac, you are right. But I don't see how you can possibly come to the conclusion that UTG is the only potential K-holder. The turn calls (rather than raises) don't mean anything. Remember, I 3-bet the flop. Everyone MUST be scared of either the flush or AA. Even AK is quite likely to smoothcall that turn. And at this loose table the flop action does not rule out AK or KQ suited either.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you believe there was a normal chance of your opponents holding a King after the turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 3 callers. You think a K is guaranteed to raise here after all the PF and flop aggression? You think that check/call means we are safe? You don't think at least 1 AK is likely after 5 people see the flop for 4 bets? We have much more than a normal chance of being up against a K. It is highly likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that the SB would have bet out or check-raised the flop if he held the hand he was representing on the river. The sudden confidence in his hand is what surprises me. He would HAVE to put you on AA for this to make sense. Do you think their reads are this good? For me, that makes me suspicious right away.

Of course I don't think it means you are completely safe, or else you would be able to raise. Raising wouldn't be smart, but it's important to think about how your opponent's actions on the river relate to their actions on the turn.

Also, jt1's last post in this thread point's out some other reasons to think this might not be such a bad situation.

jt1

03-01-2005, 07:03 AM

Alright, you were there and not me. If there were players at that table who cold call capped flops with KQo or worse then, yes, someone probably has a King.

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I believe that the SB would have bet out or check-raised the flop if he held the hand he was representing on the river. For me, that makes me suspicious right away.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hand he is representing on the river is any K. Why would he bet out or check/raise w/ any K on the flop? Eg, with AK?

Also, you guys may be getting too fancy with trying to hand read at a table that was very LAGgy -- a point I didn't emphasize enough in the original post.

Even if they weren't laggy, though, I would not feel so confident that there was no K out.

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 07:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He would HAVE to put you on AA for this to make sense. Do you think their reads are this good? For me, that makes me suspicious right away.

[/ QUOTE ]

He also might have been taking the way ahead/way behind line after his K hit the turn, and been planning to fold to a raise.

Or, you may be overestimating his thinking. Maybe he just thought.... I improved, I'm betting, but never tried putting me on a hand based on how I'd played. This is quite common. Your 2nd-level reasoning is good, but against yahoos it won't really apply.

Out of curiosity, what would you estimate the odds of my being up against a K at? Keep in mind it was a very LAGgy table.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 07:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Or, you may be overestimating his thinking. Maybe he just thought.... I improved, I'm betting, but never tried putting me on a hand based on how I'd played. This is quite common. Your 2nd-level reasoning is good, but against yahoos it won't really apply.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that a significant portion of bad players in the Party 3/6 think they are putting people on hands. They might think abotu it deeply or logically, but I suspect they make some small effort in their own minds.

I'm just saying, in order for the SB's action to make sense, he probably has to put you specifically on AA, IMHO.
Of course, that's my read of the situation, and is not an ultimate solution to playing poker. Yeah, I'm concerned about a King here, but the action looks good for me. I wont raise, but I'll put in a call that is far from the crying variety.

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, what would you estimate the odds of my being up against a K at? Keep in mind it was a very LAGgy table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm making the wild assumption that the CO doesn't have a K here. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Taking my own read into consideration, I would estimate the chances of your opponent having a K here at around 68% of the time. Obviously, this number would change (for me) if this player was known to be very passive.

gaming_mouse

03-01-2005, 07:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would estimate the chances of your opponent having a K here at around 68% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you see, now if you had said 69%, then we could have had an intelligent discussion. As it is, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 07:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would estimate the chances of your opponent having a K here at around 68% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you see, now if you had said 69%, then we could have had an intelligent discussion. As it is, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, 68% is probably much too high. And if I was that confident I had the best hand, I should probably raise. But I still really like my read here.

So let me retract that number.

I'll pull it all the way down to 54%.
But as everyone on here knows, I suck at math. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

spydog

03-01-2005, 08:57 AM

I would have called the flop and popped the turn.

chesspain

03-01-2005, 09:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In this case, the capper was a maniac who had previously capped (much to my dismay) another hand with J8o where I had AA and flopped 88T-- to fleece me of 6 BB postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would have been nice if you had posted reads with the hand, since without them, the hand itself was rather meaningless.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 09:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have called the flop and popped the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

With the Ace of clubs in your hand, this play loses a lot of its value.

spydog

03-01-2005, 09:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have called the flop and popped the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

With the Ace of clubs in your hand, this play loses a lot of its value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm 95% sure someone will bet the turn and 3-betting the flop will slow overpairs down as they will be fearful of a made flush.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have called the flop and popped the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

With the Ace of clubs in your hand, this play loses a lot of its value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm 95% sure someone will bet the turn and 3-betting the flop will slow overpairs down as they will be fearful of a made flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this, because I think you should push your large edge on the flop.

I'm not letting anyone off cheap here. If they want to try spiking sets or possibly 2 pair (depending on how loose these players really are), they have to pay me for it.

I'm always open to other's advice, though.

sthief09

03-01-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You want to know what the easiest call is? When the guy caps you on the river and you have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about when you have black aces and it comes to you capped preflop?

spydog

03-01-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not letting anyone off cheap here. If they want to try spiking sets or possibly 2 pair (depending on how loose these players really are), they have to pay me for it.

I'm always open to other's advice, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make them pay double on the turn, especially when I'm not concerned about a free card hurting me.

spydog

03-01-2005, 01:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You want to know what the easiest call is? When the guy caps you on the river and you have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about when you have black aces and it comes to you capped preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually call black aces in this situation and fold the red ones.

AngryCola

03-01-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm not letting anyone off cheap here. If they want to try spiking sets or possibly 2 pair (depending on how loose these players really are), they have to pay me for it.

I'm always open to other's advice, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make them pay double on the turn, especially when I'm not concerned about a free card hurting me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree with that advice when your edge with an overpair is small, but that's not the case in this example.

Regardless, I do like to do what you are suggesting most of the time. In fact, I probably do it more than I should. I've always found it to be one of the best plays good players make in loose limit games.

PS-
Is it obvious that I've spent too much time on 2+2 today?
/images/graemlins/smirk.gif