What's a reasonable ratio for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishes?

[bkm]

I've just started seriously playing (3-tabling) and tracking my $10 SNGs and was wondering what percentages I should be looking for. I've finished ITM in 50 of the 120 SNGs I've played (I know it's a small sample). I have 11 1sts, 19 2nds and 20 3rds. So, my ITM is 42% and my ROI is 15%. The ITM seems reasonable, but my ROI seems low. My finish percentages of 20-40-40 seems to indicate that I have too many 2nd place finishes. Of course this could simply be due to a little bad luck and my small sample size.

So, how many SNGs do I need to have a reasonably accurate view of my SNG playing ability?

What ITM and ROI should I be aiming at?

What ratio of 1,2,3 place finishes should I be looking for?

[lorinda]

Keep that ITM above 40 and you'll learn the rest for free.

It does appear you might be struggling late game, but that will fix itself in time and you're right you have a VERY small sample.

Lori

[obex]

I logged about 250 games at 20+2 before moving up. My ratio this level: 12.0% 1st, 14.7% 2nd, 16.2% 3rd.

For 50/100/200 games, (around 1100 total, mostly at 100+9):
12.4, 13.4, 13.6 for 1sts, 2nds, 3rds, respectively.

I have improved a lot since moving up but still am catching myself making mistakes. I find the times I am most unsure of how aggro/passive/tight/weak to be is 3-way. I'm sure there are posters with better 1/2/3 ratios than this, but I figured I probably had a large enough sample size to give you what you were looking for.
(All these were Party games)

[GauchoFish]

i really don't like the fact that in both sets (20's/30's) your 3rds are higher than your first. I think it goes w/out saying that this is the source of your low ROI.

Are you blinding a lot of chips away 4-5 handed looking for 3rd? Are you then doing the same looking for 2nd?

I know some will disagree with me, but i usually go balls-to-the-wall when its 4-5 handed (and even 6 or 7 somtimes) if they blinds have gotten huge and people are playing too tight.

This allows me to amass a very large stack (or bust out prematurely hehe) and position myself for the win. I ESPECIALLY DO THIS WHEN IT GETS 3 HANDED!!! Its only an extra $30 for 2nd...but its $90 more for 1st! Thats quite a jump.


Good ITM, suggesting you play proper early on, though my inkling, as i stated, is that you need to loosen up a bit late game.


WD

[obex]

uh... I'm not sure if you're talking to me.
The second set of numbers are primarily for the 100+9 Party STTs. I think the ROI I get with these is pretty good for this game (much different game than the $30+3), and I'm up about 16G. I'm not sure what you mean by extra $30 for 2nd, but I think I get your point.
I play for ITM, then I play for 1st. Both jumps are worth $200. This means I'm usually a little tight on the bubble and then pretty loose aggro three way. With the blind structure I don't think having the "big stack" is worth missing the money on the Party games because it still is a relatively small stack in terms of xBB because by the time you're three way the BB is at least 400. Once you make the money, you have a decent shot at winning, no matter how small your stack.
My style has served me well, but if someone out there is beating the $100 game for significantly more than 20% ROI over a real long run and thinks otherwise, I'd like to hear it. There may be a better way.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep that ITM above 40 and you'll learn the rest for free.

[/ QUOTE ]

*I* really like hearing this, Lori, since I'm still pulling my hair out over my miniscule ROI and dearth of first place finishes. However, my ITM is solidly above 40. I'm hoping that by the next 50-100 SnGs that I'll just get better from experience.

[GauchoFish]

oops...confused you with the original poster sorry. i have no experience playing the 100's, so i can't comment. though for the 20's/30's, IF people are playing TOO TIGHT and only trying to get the money, the strategy you suggest in your post, a FANTASTIC counter-strategy that has worked very well for me has been to raise with pretty much any two cards quite often. if i have 2k or more in chips 4 handed (average stack or above) this is usually not how i play it. though since i play absolutely frogs-ass tight for the first few rounds i often find myself 4-6 handed with ~1000 chips. i'd say i increase my EV by doing this...the reason being:

the % of time i get blinded off OOTM due to tight bubble play is pretty darned close to the % of time i get snapped stealing and finish OOTM. so the X factor here is how well i do when i finish ITM when i play tight on the bubble vs. how well i finish when i play loose on the bubble (in a tight game). I'd be willing to bet my left arm against $20 that i make at least 25% more in this second group of tourneys (due to my increased chip stack and table image, which i can capitalize on when i do get AA), on average. Thus, it is a +EV move, for my game.

Sorry if i made that incredibly too complex, i get in this argument about 10 times a week with my 'crew' of poker buddies and the only proof i have is my ROI, i guess thats enuff...hehe....they all think i'm insane.


WD

[yoshi_yoshi]

I pretty much have the same problem you do in low-level SNGs. I see these players at the higher levels placing 1st at a much higher rate and am ashamed of mine.

I do have a theory though, if you're into wishful thinking. I think a lot of my ROI comes from just sneaking into the money when people bust out for really dumb reasons - for example, when two big stacks go to war when neither of them have a premium holding. So if I see that the table is full of action I'll take a less aggressive approach to the bubble and accept that I'll be going into the money short-stacked. So in a sense I pay a '1st premium' for having the privelege to get ITM with minimal effort.

Since we're here to maximize ROI%, it's possible that while for the higher-level SNGs the best way is to get a lot of 1sts and 3rds, that for lower-level SNGs the best way is just to get as many ITM as possible. Maybe, maybe not...

[Isura]

I'm like you. I really get aggressive (probably too aggressive at the moment) and try to steal with any 2 when it's 4 or 5 handed if the situation is right. I find the best time to steal is when 2-3 have approximately the same stack as me, they seem to really tighten up and are unwilling to fight for those blinds against an equal stack. I get a lot of firsts and some thirds. Hardly ever get second, but that could also be because at the low limits no one can play heads up well.

[Isura]

Depends on the game. At party, yeah I agree that most of your ITM's comes from idiots you can't control themselves. But I find at Stars, due to the deeper stacks that its much more about building a stack in the earlier rounds. Make sure you pick up those value bets from fish who call down with 4'th pair no kicker. I think it is important to pick up all the dead money out there in the early rounds before the true fish knock themselves out. I find it makes playing the later rounds much easier.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
I've finished ITM in 50 of the 120 SNGs I've played . . .I have 11 1sts, 19 2nds and 20 3rds. So, my ITM is 42% and my ROI is 15%. . . .

What ratio of 1,2,3 place finishes should I be looking for?

[/ QUOTE ]

.. .just as importantly, what are your 4th and 5th place finish percentages? I'll gladly give up some ITM% if it means that I increase my ROI%.

[Rasputin]

I have a similar question.

I previously had played about 250 Stars Turbos with an ITM a little over 40 and a ROI a little over 20. Then I lost my data.

I now have about 70 of the Stars regular ($5.50) with a forty something ITM and a ROI that is in the high 30s.

I have more first place finishes than seconds and thirds combined, and I don't have a lot of fourth place finishes either.

The thing is, the same thing was basically true of my 250 Turbos, dramatically more first place finishes than second and third, and very very few fourths.

It just seems odd to me that I'd have roughly the same distribution of ITM finishes with a large difference in ROI.

Also I was wondering something. Those who are considered good heads up players...what is their ratio of firsts to seconds?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
It just seems odd to me that I'd have roughly the same distribution of ITM finishes with a large difference in ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Roughly the same" maybe, but ROI is going to be very sensitive to the finish distribution over N=250. ROI can vary +-15% over that sample size with random results picked from the same finish distribution. This is especially true if you "play for first" 4-6 handed, win a lot, and also bust out on the bubble a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
Those who are considered good heads up players...what is their ratio of firsts to seconds?

[/ QUOTE ]
It was my impression that your 1st/2nd ratio had more to do with your play prior to heads-up, since if both players have any shred of skill and equal chip stacks, it's a mathematical fact (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/poker/headsup.html) that HU play is a crapshoot.

Slim

[bkm]

[ QUOTE ]


.. .just as importantly, what are your 4th and 5th place finish percentages? I'll gladly give up some ITM% if it means that I increase my ROI%.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 4th and 5th finishes are 19 4ths and 22 5ths. Nearly everyone says to play tight in the early rounds at Party Poker and that's what I do. However, by the time 4 players have been eliminated, unless I got a premium hand or two, I'm in 5th place with 600 chips and with the blinds at 50/100 I just have to pick a hand to go all-in on. I think that's why I have so many 2-5 finishes. I rarely finish in 7-10th place. Although, in a 10-game session yesterday I had 3 10th place finishes (One due to extreme stupidity and 2 bad beats).

So, how do I avoid so many 3-5 finishes?

[bkm]

And, it's getting worse. I played a 10-game session of $10+1 SNG on Party Poker and had my worse session ever.

My finishes were 4,4,4,4,6,5,7,1,8,4. Five fourth place finishes is ridiculous. And, just to rub salt in the wound my one win was really a $5+1 I accidentally opened.

[raptor517]

actually, i have found that roi can vary more than 15% over 250 sngs. i play the 109s and 55s, and have had an roi of 35% and an roi of -2% over 250, so to get real results of where you are at, i think you need around 2k sngs. have fun getting there /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[squire]

i am completlty new here and have been playin party $10+1
i have plyed 65 my itm is 55% which i guess is ok but can somebody pleeease tell me what roi is?
i can here you all laughing but i have seen roi mentioned in so many threads i need to know
thanks

[imported_bingobazza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


.. .just as importantly, what are your 4th and 5th place finish percentages? I'll gladly give up some ITM% if it means that I increase my ROI%.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 4th and 5th finishes are 19 4ths and 22 5ths. Nearly everyone says to play tight in the early rounds at Party Poker and that's what I do. However, by the time 4 players have been eliminated, unless I got a premium hand or two, I'm in 5th place with 600 chips and with the blinds at 50/100 I just have to pick a hand to go all-in on. I think that's why I have so many 2-5 finishes. I rarely finish in 7-10th place. Although, in a 10-game session yesterday I had 3 10th place finishes (One due to extreme stupidity and 2 bad beats).

So, how do I avoid so many 3-5 finishes?

[/ QUOTE ]

if this is yur strategy, see more cheap flops early with drawing hands and small pairs in position to try to double up once in a while - i know this goes against the grain here, but a lot of what you will read here is just plain wrong! There is little long term profit in doing what everyone else does.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
can somebody pleeease tell me what roi is?

[/ QUOTE ]
ROI = "Return on Investment".

ROI = (Net Profit) / (Total Wagered) X 100%

Hope this helps,
ss

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


.. .just as importantly, what are your 4th and 5th place finish percentages? I'll gladly give up some ITM% if it means that I increase my ROI%.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 4th and 5th finishes are 19 4ths and 22 5ths. Nearly everyone says to play tight in the early rounds at Party Poker and that's what I do. However, by the time 4 players have been eliminated, unless I got a premium hand or two, I'm in 5th place with 600 chips and with the blinds at 50/100 I just have to pick a hand to go all-in on. I think that's why I have so many 2-5 finishes. I rarely finish in 7-10th place. Although, in a 10-game session yesterday I had 3 10th place finishes (One due to extreme stupidity and 2 bad beats).

So, how do I avoid so many 3-5 finishes?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your overall distribution is this (give or take)?

1st = 11
2nd = 19
3rd = 20
4th = 19
5th = 22

That's pretty darn flat.
At first glance I would guess that we need to take some of those 2nds and split them between 1st and 3rd. Also, we should probably take some of those 4ths and 5ths and distribute them between ITM and 6th & 7th.

Describe your blind stealing strategy at 25/50 and 50/100 with 6 or 7 players left.

Describe your play at 100/200 with 4 to 5 left.

What sorts of hands are you pushing when you are "in 5th place with 600 chips and with the blinds at 50/100"? Who are you pushing those hands into?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
actually, i have found that roi can vary more than 15% over 250 sngs. i play the 109s and 55s, and have had an roi of 35% and an roi of -2% over 250, so to get real results of where you are at, i think you need around 2k sngs.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's funny. I was going to put "plus or minus twenty percent" in my post but I didn't think I could do so without torching off another statistical flame, but that's about what I get from dinking around with some stochastic calcs. For those of you trying to figure out anything from your finish distribution, PM me and I'll send you a spreadsheet where you can plug in your finish distribution. Set the graph x-axis to 100 games. Hit F9 (refresh random numbers) repeatedly. See how close you think your results over 100 games are to your "actual" finish distribution inputs, ITM, and ROI.

[ QUOTE ]
have fun getting there

[/ QUOTE ]
People have started asking me why my eyes are so bloodshot...

[curtains]

Good chances the distribution is just due to your small sample size. I'd worry about it more after 500-1000 tournaments.

[bkm]

And, it gets even worse. I just finished another 10-game session with the following finishes. 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 3, 8, 4. I just don't know what to do any more.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
And, it gets even worse. I just finished another 10-game session with the following finishes. 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 3, 8, 4. I just don't know what to do any more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just had a streak of 4,4,4,4,5,5,6,7 also and looked for something to break. But alas, I found nothing and sat there and smiled. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif