View Full Version : Simulation Request.
If you went all in with Black 2's against Jh Th, what is the winning percentage for the 2's (or the JTs)?
Amanjyaku
09-06-2002, 08:50 PM
From freeware program Hold 'Em Shodown:
1,712,304 deals required. Start dealing? (y/n) [y]:
% chance of outright win 2c2s= 45.317245 JhTh= 53.276054
% chance of win or split 2c2s= 46.723946 JhTh= 54.682755
expected return, % of pot 2c2s= 46.020596 JhTh= 53.979404
fair pot odds:1 2c2s= 1.172940 JhTh= 0.852558
pots won: 2c2s= 788012.50 JhTh= 924291.50
Mike Haven
09-07-2002, 11:01 AM
what i think is really interesting is that if you somehow knew there was going to be the 6d in the flop the win chances reverse to 53% for 2c2s to win and 47% for JhTh to win
this infers how "minor" differences in the texture of the flop matter so much
if it was the 6h then JhTh would win 56%
if it was the 6c then 2c2s would win 55%
Aaron W.
09-07-2002, 12:34 PM
I haven't tested this, but I don't think the "6" is the special part of the card. It's really just the fact that JTs has at least one flush card guaranteed with the 6c; he always has at least a backdoor flush draw (if not a 4-flush or made flush). In fact, since it's an all-in situation, it doesn't matter where the 6c/6h comes from. So giving the board a 6c takes away a chance to draw to the flush.
Drawing at least 2 hearts in 4 draws (6h given to the board from the start): 26%
Drawing at least 3 hearts in 4 draws (6c given to the board from the start): 3%
(I think I did those computations right...). So you can see that there is a dramatic difference if you take away that one chance to draw to the flush.
Aaron W.
Mike Haven
09-07-2002, 01:27 PM
yes and no - the 6 is the special part of the card
i'm sorry if the point of my post was not clear
i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases
in the subject scenario, if the following cards are in the flop then they have these effects:
6c - JhTh wins 45%
7c - JhTh wins 48%
8c - JhTh wins 51%
9c - JhTh wins 54%
depending on what flops or turns or rivers, even down to one card within those portions of the hand, the chances of the original two-cards winning fluctuates wildly
for example:
AsAc against any, before flop - Aces win 85%
AsAc against any, with flopped KhKdx - Aces win 88%
AsAc against any, with flopped 7d6dx - Aces win 76%
Phat Mack
09-07-2002, 04:49 PM
Good post! When I read your first one, I thought, "This can't be right," but sure enough it was.
i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases
I think it's valuable information if you are going all in before the flop, but you've certainly pointed out the futility of taking it too far.
I ran all your examples with the cards on the board, then re-ran them with the same cards in the dead pile (as if they'd been flashed). The results weren't nearly as dramatic and clearly indicated the impact of a single card on the board. No wonder the oldtimers were so obsessed with burning the top card- knowing only one card could signify such major swings.
AlanBostick
09-09-2002, 12:43 PM
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases
[/ QUOTE ]
When I'm in the big blind with two chips left in a tournament, one opponent has raised and everyone else has folded, I don't give a good goddam about how my hand plays after the flop; I'm going to be all-in, and what matters is my hand's heads-up all-in equity versus my opponent's hand. How the hand plays post-flop isn't pertinent; there's no more action, and there's going to be a showdown.
If either I or my opponent know that a particular card is going to hit on the flop, well, there's something fishy going on.
Another way to look at your response: Heads-up, AA is a huge favorite against 22. But if you know a deuce is going to flop, the AA is now a significant dog. So what?
Mike Haven
09-09-2002, 06:00 PM
yes, you are correct for your example
which is why i said "in many cases"
if you think i was nit-picking rather than trying to add intelligent comment to an interesting discussion i apologise for my lack of writing skills
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