keikiwai
02-17-2005, 06:02 PM
Here is a question about overlays.
The general question is how do you decide on the overlay you'll accept, a hypothetical example follows.
Let's say the flop comes in LHE and you have a 2 to 3 chance of completing a flush by the river. You feel confident that your real pot odds will be 1 to 3 at the end of the hand. So if you would win every time you made the flush you should clearly go for it.... however.....
In this situation if you do not have A suited, you may make the flush and lose. Second even if you make the flush there is a 45% (9/47 + 12/46) chance that there will be a pair on the board. So there is a chance then that one of your opponents will have a four of a kind or full house.
So clearly if you cut your overlays too thin you may lose money eventhough the quick and dirty calculation would indicate that you shouldn't.
Is there a practical way of dealing with this in a live game, where it is rather difficult to first calculate your outs then subtract the chance of a higher hand showing at the end, then subtract the chance of a higher card showing in the same hand you have.
I try to make as good a guess I can whehter I'm drawing dead or will be outdrawn, but it's nothing quantitative. Can anyone do this quanitatively during a game?
thanks,
Peter.
The general question is how do you decide on the overlay you'll accept, a hypothetical example follows.
Let's say the flop comes in LHE and you have a 2 to 3 chance of completing a flush by the river. You feel confident that your real pot odds will be 1 to 3 at the end of the hand. So if you would win every time you made the flush you should clearly go for it.... however.....
In this situation if you do not have A suited, you may make the flush and lose. Second even if you make the flush there is a 45% (9/47 + 12/46) chance that there will be a pair on the board. So there is a chance then that one of your opponents will have a four of a kind or full house.
So clearly if you cut your overlays too thin you may lose money eventhough the quick and dirty calculation would indicate that you shouldn't.
Is there a practical way of dealing with this in a live game, where it is rather difficult to first calculate your outs then subtract the chance of a higher hand showing at the end, then subtract the chance of a higher card showing in the same hand you have.
I try to make as good a guess I can whehter I'm drawing dead or will be outdrawn, but it's nothing quantitative. Can anyone do this quanitatively during a game?
thanks,
Peter.