Big Hand, Big Draw - What would you do?

[adamstewart]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $2 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>



<font color="red">NOTE: CO has just bet into me, and is "All In."</font>

Do you raise here, risking bumping out players? Or do you go for overcalls with your "Top Pair-Monster Draw"??


(I'm pretty sure that I made the correct decision here, but it made me think for a bit, so I thought I'd post this ....)


Adam

[shadow29]

call.

[ThePenguin]

call

[QTip]

My initial thought is to simply call and slowplay for extra customers. However, the thing about this hand is that the pot is already large, and I don't mind protecting either...probably the right thing to do; however, this draw and hand is so huge, just about any draw someone else has gives my the nuts...in the heat of the moment, I would have just called, I'm sure of that.

[MisterKing]

calls and auto-bets/raises the turn more or less no matter what comes/what the prior action is to him. I don't think you have to worry about any of your opponents having sets given the PF action, so your basic draw to the nut flush seems like a lock to win, and of course every now and then you'll make a royal.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing about this hand is that the pot is already large, and I don't mind protecting either...

[/ QUOTE ]

Against what? Another gutshot? I don't see many hands that we're worried about here... hell, we WANT the gutter draws to play against us theoretically, don't we?

Here's the specifics:
-Gutshot draws with a ten are drawing to 3 outs (the Qs gives hero a royal). Little do they know that these 3 outs are dirty as hell, since they'll be splitting at best and losing to a flush at worst.

-Likewise, gut draws with a Queen are in bad shape. One of the tens the're looking for is gone, meaning they have at best three outs, and no re-draws to either a winning flush or a royal. They can hit their winner (Tc/Th/Ts -- 6.67% shot) on the turn and still lose to either a flush or a royal. Nine times in 45 they'll be drawing dead on the turn.

-Mathematically, we may not even be afraid of a made straight, provided that the Qs hasn't been dealt yet. We lose 4BB when this is the case and we don't improve (he bets turn, we auto raise, he 3-bets, we call... then we call the river), but make that much and more when we hit (~35% of the time) and villian doesn't slow down. Again, nine times in 45 they'll be drawing dead on the turn.

[Bremen]

What about single pair hands? A K or J on the turn sinks this hand, we'd also like to be able to win unimproved. I'd raise...

[Nick C]

Decisions like these give me trouble.

But, anyway, let's see. Hands that are currently ahead of us will at least call if we raise. Some hands we're beating do pose somewhat of a threat. A worse ace could go on to chop in a number of ways. A hand like K /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif can pull ahead on five turn cards, as can Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif.

I think ace-rag will call one and might call two. A pair of kings or jacks might come along as well, especially if the hand also contains a gutshot. Any flush draws will also stay in, which of course we like.

Hands we're way ahead of may very well fold to a single bet, no matter what we do.

Also, since there's an all-in player, we get to see whether or not we make a royal regardless of the action behind us. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think I like raising, but I'm not sure. Bringing any gutshots (that don't contain a pair) that would have folded to a raise along for a single bet wouldn't be so bad. Plus, call/3-betting would be fun, if we would be given a chance to do that.

Anyway, though, part of my thinking is that, while our draw is huge, our actual made hand isn't all that strong and is kind of vulnerable. So, given the pot size that already exists, I think I'd raise.

[adamstewart]

C'mon... where are opinions from the likes of sthief, CDC, sfer, StellerWind, bernie ......


Adam

[krishanleong]

I raise. You have large equity.

Krishan

[spydog]

I raise because the average 2/4 clown will make a call with any broadway card. This inflates the pot to where they will call the turn for the same bad reason that they called the flop.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you raise here, risking bumping out players? Or do you go for overcalls with your "Top Pair-Monster Draw"??

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise, and I don't think it's even close. You don't mind taking it down right now but you don't mind if people call either.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you raise here, risking bumping out players? Or do you go for overcalls with your "Top Pair-Monster Draw"??

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise, and I don't think it's even close. You don't mind taking it down right now but you don't mind if people call either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm siding with bakku on this one.

[adamstewart]

Thanks guys.

That's why I wanted to know some of the more "experienced" opinions.


I raised.

Everyone else folded. Turn was an ace and I took down the pot with trip aces. (Don't have the hand on me, so I don't remember what CO had).



Adam

[PokerBob]

I raise hoping to get 3-bet.

[chief444]

Yea...definitely a raise.

[flair1239]

I would raise. More for value than eliminating people. The pot is largish already. Also this board has a little something for everyone.

I would not be suprised if it hit everyone at least a little bit. In other words I would be mildly suprised if you "lost customers" here. I also don't think you should be upset if you did.

[lehighguy]

Since this is 2/4 I'll assume your opponets are too loose and chase to many draws. Anyone with a queen or 10 will probably chase till the river. THe pot is large enough you want to protect. If they are stupid enough to call one bet with lower pair and ace on board they are stupid enough to call two bets. Raise.

[QTip]

That's what I'm talking about too...we do have a lot of cards to really help us, but what if rags fall and we're left with an inferior pair? Rather protect...

If the pot was small it would be only a call.

[Klepton]

at this level, any A, K, Q, or T is staying along for the ride, i'm raising now... if a spade, A, Q, T, K, or J (i shoulda said any broadway), it's gonna kill your action or scare you into not betting...raise for value

[bernie]

Interesting spot to be in.

I'd go for the overcalls, then plan on getting active on the turn. UNLESS these players are loose enough that they'd call 2 cold. Then I might raise.

But in going for the overcalls, someone may raise behind you, then you get to 3 bet and really get the sidepot started.

If they only call behind you, then when you bet the turn, they won't likely have odds for the gutshot. That's a 3 out gutshot, btw. Turn card depending.

I think a case could be made for raising the flop though if one thinks this draw is worth taking down the pot right then. I like to jam these if I can. Im not in a spot to do it.

How would you play it if the CO bets but didn't go all in? Pretty much the same thing, isn't it?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise. You have large equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a monster draw plus top pair. I want to get paid off a bit more. Your hand isn't as vulnerable as you would be if you only had ATo. That gives you some leeway.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
if a spade, A, Q, T, K, or J (i shoulda said any broadway), it's gonna kill your action or scare you into not betting

[/ QUOTE ]

An A or a Q is a great turn card for your hand. Especially the Q. The A, I will agree, could kill some action. But you would have that much extra on your side if more are in to the turn.

b

[pokerkai]

im suprised at how much debate this thread has garnered...
its a CLEAR raise