AK, TPTK - 4 way huge pot w/other 2+2er, lots of flop action.... [Archive]

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Fat Nicky

02-16-2005, 04:48 PM

UTG+1 is a 2+2 poo-bah, although I don't think he know who I am.
No other reads as this is my 1st orbit at the table

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero ?????

what's the plan??

spydog

02-16-2005, 04:58 PM

I think you have to call the flop. You are getting something like 13:1 on your call and you do have top pair.

There are so many scenarios that could happen on the turn that it's hard to say what I would do. Maybe post the turn if you called the flop.....

MHarris

02-16-2005, 05:00 PM

I fold here. UTG+2's call-cap on the flop is pretty scary, and it looks like you're getting 13:1 for only backdoor outs.

Milky

02-16-2005, 05:02 PM

His call-cap could be as little as a flush draw. No way am I folding the flop getting 13-1.

spydog

02-16-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
His call-cap could be as little as a flush draw. No way am I folding the flop getting 13-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. If I'm UTG+2, I'm playing a flush draw exactly like this on the flop. I probably wait until the turn for anything stronger.

private joker

02-16-2005, 05:17 PM

I guess put me in the call camp, but I'm very ready to fold the turn unimproved. UTG+1's play looks a lot like KQ. Raising in EP but just calling a 3-bet, and then playing top 2 fast.

With just 3 outs against KQ (2 outs if the Ac makes the other dude a flush) and drawing dead to a set, you can dump your one pair pretty soon.

applej25

02-16-2005, 05:21 PM

So I'm wondering how you guys figure its 13-1 when its two bets to the Hero? That in effect makes the odds 6.5-1 or am I missing something here?

private joker

02-16-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm wondering how you guys figure its 13-1 when its two bets to the Hero? That in effect makes the odds 6.5-1 or am I missing something here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing that there are 26 bets in (or so) when he has to call 2. 26:2 = 13:1.

cnfuzzd

02-16-2005, 05:42 PM

as long as this wasnt me.....

peace

john nickle

EliteNinja

02-16-2005, 05:44 PM

You're tied to the pot now.
13:1 = Call it.

Fat Nicky

02-16-2005, 05:54 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero ????

meep_42

02-16-2005, 05:55 PM

Gotta call, I think, even if your gutshot splits.

-d

Homer315

02-16-2005, 06:07 PM

I might raise this. You said you have no reads on anyone. UTG2 might be pushing a pair and a flush draw here, representing something else. (as an aside, when people cold-call raises like UTG2 did, I tend to immediately classify them as a weaker player, because it's so frequently a mistake to do so). I could see UTG1 with maybe AQs or even AK. I wouldn't be surprised if CO is on the flush draw as well.

I think raising to drive out CO and UTG is better than folding, and is probably better than calling. If I call, everybody else is calling too, probably, and I just don't want to see the river against 3 people. I am not sure what I do if it's three bet to me on the turn though. Maybe call/fold the river to a bet. I suppose you have to worry about UTG2 with 10-J. If I can get it HU for the river, and it's checked to me, I check though unimproved though.

private joker

02-16-2005, 06:11 PM

This just keeps getting worse. What has CO been calling with? If he's got pocket Ts, you're screwed. If he had KT or QT you're screwed. He will raise behind you. Then there's the possibility of UTG+1 check-raising because UTG+2 capped the flop. Folding seems weak with this gutshot, but the Tc puts a flush out there, and... well, it just looks like your hand is no good. But the pot is big, so it can't be disastrous to call down. But if it gets raised behind you and it's 2 more back to you, you must fold.

PokerBob

02-16-2005, 06:29 PM

I think you have a good chance of being ahead here, but are against some strong draws. (I think UTG+1 would have capped pf with AA-QQ, so I think you may be able to rule those out.) I think I call the flop and hope the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif hits. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

PokerBob

02-16-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero ????

[/ QUOTE ]

Well that card sure sucks. I put UTG+2 on 99. I think your goose is cooked. That said, I think I call one bet here.

WillMagic

02-16-2005, 06:38 PM

The analysis of the hand has generally sucked so far...basically, it has been "You must call because the odds are 13-1, end of story."

Try this, guys.

What is UTG+1's range of hands?

How about UTG+2?

What happens when you improve on the turn?

What happens when you don't improve on the turn?

If you answer these questions, I think you'll agree with me that this is actually relatively clear fold on the flop. I'm starving now, so I'm going to go eat, but I'm going to come back and explain my view further if you guys don't explore this more.

Will

WillMagic

02-16-2005, 07:30 PM

Alright, I guess I'll answer my own questions.

UTG+1 (the 2+2r) we can give 99, KQ, QQ, A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif, A /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif, and on occasion AK offsuit.

UTG+2 is going to have JT more than any other hand in this situation, and when he doesn't have JT, he'll have a set or an 11-15 out draw.

Not even taking into consideration the CO, who could easily have a strong draw, our hand looks to be in dire straits. The two kings left in the deck will never be outs for us. All we have are the ace outs, and they only improve us if UTG+1 is holding KQ. In almost every other situation we are drawing dead to a running straight or full house, because it is feasible for one of our two opponents to have a strong draw, but not BOTH, because for them both to have strong draws they need the same cards.

So basically: We are drawing to runner-runner a good 75-80% of the time here. We'll have 3 outs and the backdoor flush draw maybe 15-20% of the time. Maybe 3-4% of the time our TPTK is the best hand, but in those cases there will be at least two strong draws out against us.

Though the pot odds are strong, the reverse implied odds are atrocious, as we will often improve only to be shown a better hand. The sentiment to call the flop and fold the turn is pretty silly, because your immediate pot odds will be the same in both instances. The fact that you want to fold the turn here should clue you into the fact that you should fold the flop.

That's all for now.

Will

private joker

02-16-2005, 07:36 PM

You're right. I'm changing my vote from flop call/turn fold to flop fold.

lehighguy

02-16-2005, 08:28 PM

If they are rational....you are behind.

Fat Nicky

02-17-2005, 10:36 AM

Here are the results as I know some may be interested.

**NOTE: prob should have mentioned that UTG was close to being all in at the beginning of the thread, but, with all the other action from other players, i don't think it made much of a difference.***

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (18.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls $8 (All-In), Hero folds, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 22.66 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Kc Ac (flush, ace high).
UTG+2 has Qd Qh (three of a kind, queens).
CO has Jh Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 22.66 BB. 

the 2+2er takes the hand!

Sifmole

02-17-2005, 11:54 AM

Just want to say straight out --

Fabulous, thanks for your time Wild.

Of course the topper was that you were dead on