Good Opportunity for FPS? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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spydog

01-26-2005, 12:27 PM

OK. I've been looking for opportunities where going for a CR can be more profitable than just betting out. They are few and far between, but I came across this one.

MP2 is 44/20 after 35 hands.
CO is 34/5 after 30 hands.

Here is my thinking:
1) I didn't raise PF so my flop bet looks like I'm bluffing the Ace when I bet the flop and check the turn.
2) 2 people called the flop, which means the likelihood of one of them holding an Ace goes up.
3) They are likely to bet an ace on the turn if they have it. They will almost always call my CR and the river.
4) They may bluff at the turn when they otherwise might have folded.
5) They may check the turn when they might otherwise have folded, but be more likely to call my river bet.
6) They may have semibluff a flush draw that they picked up on the turn.

The downside is giving them a free card if they picked up a flush draw or have a gutbuster. Also, MP2 might be waiting to raise an Ace on the turn and I lose the opportunity to 3-bet.

Thoughts?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks....

chief444

01-26-2005, 12:33 PM

I think you'll more often than not see one of them bet the turn but I'm not sure it's more profitable than just betting out yourself and there is the risk of it checking through.

MarkD

01-26-2005, 12:38 PM

Change the 9 to a 6 (or even a 7) and I like check raising here. As it stands I think betting out is the better play.

This is a good spot to go for a C/R on the turn for the reasons you sited but this board is slightly too co-ordinated for me.

Harv72b

01-26-2005, 12:43 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
5 folds, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks...

On your hand...I dunno, it could work out for you, but I also think there's a decent chance that someone will raise with an A if you bet out. That, combined with the possibility that it gets checked through & someone hits a straight on the river (or aces up), make me want to bet it again.

MarkD

01-26-2005, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I also think there's a decent chance that someone will raise with an A if you bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't, they would have raised the flop if they were going to raise.

Harv72b

01-26-2005, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't, they would have raised the flop if they were going to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen a lot of people "slowplay" top pair in this situation, even if it's not smart to do so. I don't think there's a good chance it'll happen, but I do think it happens enough to be worth considering.

spydog

01-26-2005, 12:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
there is the risk of it checking through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

MarkD

01-26-2005, 12:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is way way way wrong. Look at the board. Look at the board - it is very co-ordinated with a lot of draws. Don't let them draw for free.

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong again. Lots of hands can call you on the turn here. A lot of hands WILL call you on the turn hand. Many (most?) of these hands will not call you on the river. Bet now while they will call you and get the money into the pot.

chief444

01-26-2005, 12:55 PM

spydog

01-26-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is way way way wrong. Look at the board. Look at the board - it is very co-ordinated with a lot of draws. Don't let them draw for free.

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong again. Lots of hands can call you on the turn here. A lot of hands WILL call you on the turn hand. Many (most?) of these hands will not call you on the river. Bet now while they will call you and get the money into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with what you say in the context of a big pot. However, this pot is tiny and I'm more worried about building it than I am about protecting it.

MarkD

01-26-2005, 01:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with what you say in the context of a big pot. However, this pot is tiny and I'm more worried about building it than I am about protecting it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that tiny, and that really isn't too important to me in this pot. Given the board texture this pot is plenty big enough that you should bet out here. I am not betting for protection - I am betting for value as I believe betting gives me the highest overall expectation on this hand.