AA hand, botched turn and river play?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

[BWebb]

Since it's an unknown I think it's fine. You have to look him up after he 3-bets the turn, so why charge yourself 3 BBs when you are behind? Call and information is gathered.

[private joker]

This is probably expert play, but I don't really get it. You must have a pretty good calculation of the chances he has a flush/straight (to which you lose) against the chances he has 2 pair or a lower set (which you beat). Those odds probably were enough to call with but not enough to raise with. But still, I am confused by this line. Do you see why?

[Nate tha' Great]

I tried to come up with a quick estimate of his likely hands and came up with your being ahead something like 60% of the time, which is not quite enough to raise with since I think you need to call a 3-bet.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's contradictory at all. I think the river greatly improves your chances of winning but still not enough to raise.

[bisonbison]

nice hand.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, makes sense to me... but I play too cautious, I'm sure. Seems like an odd line from you though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Turn comes no spade, and you raise here to force out the SB. You also raise to see if the BB still likes his hand after a non spade turn. Yep, he does.

River improves us, but it doesn't matter if the BB holds what he's representing. So we call. He was an unknown, he's about to become known.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
You must have a pretty good calculation of the chances he has a flush/straight (to which you lose) against the chances he has 2 pair or a lower set (which you beat). Those odds probably were enough to call with but not enough to raise with. But still, I am confused by this line. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems to me like you just answered your own question. If he was behind a flush or straight he still is. So even though the river gives him a good chance of having the best hand (much better than on the turn), it still isn't good enough to raise with. Maybe if you could fold to a 3-bet but I couldn't.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Bad guy showed A /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and my hand was not good.

i was foldign the river unimproved btw.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad guy showed A /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and my hand was not good.

i was foldign the river unimproved btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that's mathematically incorrect.

Against QJ you have two outs to a set and six outs to a better two pair, for eight total, although three of those outs will put a four-flush on the board, so I think we're talking about 6.5 effective outs.

Against a set you have two outs.

So if you put his hands at
Flush 40%
Two-Pair 35%
Set 25%

We're talking about just 2.75 weighed average outs, which is not enough to call, especially as you can't raise on the end.

There needs to be a significant chance of his having something like A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Qx or K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Qx or A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Jx in order for you to justify a call.

And if there's a significant enough chance of those hands, which I think that there is against an unknown opponent in this game, you need to call on the end as well, unless a bad card comes off.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
We're talking about just 2.75 weighed average outs, which is not enough to call, especially as you can't raise on the end.

There needs to be a significant chance of his having something like A Qx or K Qx or A Jx in order for you to justify a call.

And if there's a significant enough chance of those hands, which I think that there is against an unknown opponent in this game, you need to call on the end as well, unless a bad card comes off.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't do the math at the time, but i figuerd i was good enough to counterfeit 2pair or beat a set which in my guestimation counterbalanced the times he flopped a flush. i'm getting 12-1 on the turn 3-bet, but with the weighted outs you gave me, calling is incorrect as the breakeven point for (rounding up) 3 outs is 14.3-1. With a bet on the river and the fact that i can't raise and the fact that i won't always win even when i do improve makes it a crappy situation.

as far as foldign the river unimproved, the turn 3-bet gave me just enough pot odds to call (i thought) but i was quite postitve i was behind. i know you think i fold too much, but i don't think i do, cuz i make tons of bad calldowns in similiar situations, but i only post the folds that can make me look smart. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

nate, what is the EV of calling down unimproved assuming a blank river in this case?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're talking about just 2.75 weighed average outs, which is not enough to call, especially as you can't raise on the end.

There needs to be a significant chance of his having something like A Qx or K Qx or A Jx in order for you to justify a call.

And if there's a significant enough chance of those hands, which I think that there is against an unknown opponent in this game, you need to call on the end as well, unless a bad card comes off.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't do the math at the time, but i figuerd i was good enough to counterfeit 2pair or beat a set which in my guestimation counterbalanced the times he flopped a flush. i'm getting 12-1 on the turn 3-bet, but with the weighted outs you gave me, calling is incorrect as the breakeven point for (rounding up) 3 outs is 14.3-1. With a bet on the river and the fact that i can't raise and the fact that i won't always win even when i do improve makes it a crappy situation.

as far as foldign the river unimproved, the turn 3-bet gave me just enough pot odds to call (i thought) but i was quite postitve i was behind. i know you think i fold too much, but i don't think i do, cuz i make tons of bad calldowns in similiar situations, but i only post the folds that can make me look smart. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

nate, what is the EV of calling down unimproved assuming a blank river in this case?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, let's give him

Flush 35%
Two-Pair 30%
Set 20%
One-Pair + Flush redraw 15%

Let's say that your plan is to call the river if any card except for a non-ace spade or a queen comes. That works out to 34/46 cards (74%). You'll never raise on the river.

13/46 times (26%), you'll fold having paid 1 BB. The remaining 74% of the time, you'll pay 2 BB.

We'll assume that you'll always win against one pair those times that you call (since you're folding most of the cards that would have improved the one pair), will win 2/46 of the time against a set, and 6/46 of the time against two pair. You'll never win against a flush. This works out to 7.3 wins out of 46, or 16%.

So you're paying 1.74 BB on the average, in order to win 16% of 14 BB, which is 2.24 BB. It looks like the calldown has a profit of about 15 bucks.

If we use a slightly more pessimistic set of assumptions:

Flush 40%
Two-Pair 25%
Set 25%
One-Pair 10%

We then get 5.4 wins out of 46, or about 12%. 12% of 14 BB is 1.68 BB, which would make the call *slightly* wrong.

It's hard for me to put the chance of one pair or worse at *less* than 10% against a complete unknown in this game, and it could easily be quite a bit higher if you've drawn a sufficiently aggressive opponent, so I think you have a calldown, although as we've discussed I tend to call too much anyway. /images/graemlins/smile.gif The one thing I do know is that it's not mathematically correct to take a card off on the turn based on the possibility of improvement alone.