Is It Possible To Escape This Hand?

[Skip Brutale]

I think it's hand 7 of 33buyin on party. I raise UTG with AKs to 45 and am re-raised to 75 by a player that's been pretty active and agressive but hasn't shown down a hand. A player I have no read on cold calls in a late seat and the blinds fold, I call.

Flop is AAJ with a flush draw. I decide to bet out 175 into 250 and both players call. The turn is an 8 and brings a 2nd flush draw. Alright, so do they have AJ or JJ? I think it's very possible I was called by a combination of weaker Ace, flush draw, and pair of Jacks. I feel fairly pot commited now and if I don't check-fold I deffinately am. Alright, I will make a flush draw fold, a pair of Jacks is probably folding by now and I don't think a weaker Ace is going to leave so I push all-in.

The pre-flop re-raiser calls with QQ (lol) and cold caller has JJ.

Is there anyway I can find this out before going broke? Even if I am played back at, or slowplayed, how do I know it's not just a weaker Ace? Anyone think there is a way to not get broke here?

[Runner Runner]

This is a Party 30, not the first level of the main event at the WSOP.

You have about 500 left. There is 600 in the pot. The rest of your stack is going in on the turn or the river, you cannot even consider a fold as you are not close to deep enough to get the kind of information that lets you know you are behind. Tough luck you ran into JJ.

[adanthar]

You can't, but you can definitely play this hand better. For starters, the odds of a flush draw being in this hand are around 1% and that shouldn't even factor in at all.

It depends on how tricky and/or how bad both players are, but the last thing in the world you want to do is to make either fold.

[Skip Brutale]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't, but you can definitely play this hand better. For starters, the odds of a flush draw being in this hand are around 1% and that shouldn't even factor in at all.

It depends on how tricky and/or how bad both players are, but the last thing in the world you want to do is to make either fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you care to elaborate on a better way to play the hand. Though I know that takes more work than just saying it could have been played better.

And the chance of someone having a flush draw is 1%? How do you know? Did you do calculations based upon the types of hands we can expect my opponents to hold? That's strange that it's exactly 1% and not like 4% or .8%.

Great post.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you care to elaborate on a better way to play the hand. Though I know that takes more work than just saying it could have been played better. [ QUOTE ]
the last thing in the world you want to do is to make either fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ][ QUOTE ]
And the chance of someone having a flush draw is 1%? How do you know?

[/ QUOTE ]

I said 1% because it's probably not 0% but it's definitely a whole lot less than 2%.

[Skip Brutale]

So another worthless post.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
So another worthless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

What suited cards are calling a raise and a reraise?

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]

What suited cards are calling a raise and a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

Generally, it's not a good idea to put people on a flush draw in a raised reraised pot. I think it's equivalent to putting someone on quads when you flop a boat.

[syka16]

-Is there anyway I can find this out before going broke?

Tell him you have JJ and if he calls BS then you know he's got at least one J. Only a moron would continue with bottom pair. Therefore, he must have JJ.

-Even if I am played back at, or slowplayed, how do I know it's not just a weaker Ace?

Tell him you have AK and see if he folds.

-Anyone think there is a way to not get broke here?

yes!

[Voltron87]

I'm not going to say his play is perfect (it wasn't) but I will say at the party 33 level you would get all in too. It is virtually impossible to not get broke in this hand once you are anywhere near pot comitted. You are ahead of a ton of hands and behind very few.

[Unparagoned]

Is it really that easy to discount the flush draw here? I need to mention right now that I have 0 experience with the 30s, I have only played the 10s and 20s. Anyways, we're look at a small raise UTG and a min-raise by an active player. So what hands are calling in LP? This is the 7th hand of the STT, so I think it is difficult to rule out Axs from a loose player. In particular, I say this because I'm not sure exactly what hands I would be CALLING with here. If I have AA-KK (maybe QQ???) I am re-raising/pushing. Does AK, AQ, JJ-88 or so call here? All I'm saying is that I am not really sure what to put the cold-caller on. I suppose we could guess big pair (though I still think re-raising in that case makes sense, but perhaps there's some reason to play AA or KK this way). So, basically, what I'm saying is that either this guy is sitting on a monster or else he's calling with a fairly significantly broader range of hands that I am not even sure I can define, but maybe AK-ATs, KQs, or any of the hands that i have mentioned already, i.e. much more difficult to place. And I would be inclined to think that there is a decent chance he is sooted if that's the sort of player we're talking about. Does this analysis seems reasonable?

Now, assuming all that before is true (and makes sense...hopefully it does), then what do we make of the two calls? Our active player could really have quite a few different things, after all, he's the active player, playing alot of different hands, probably sooted... The other guy could be sitting on a monster, could call with his large pp because he's confused, could have a weaker ace, or could be on a flush draw. If we're really not sure where everyone is in the hand, but know our hand is pretty darn good and has quite a few possible holdings dominated, why doesn't the push make sense? Can we lay this down to a flush card on the river? Is there any way we lay this hand down? I dunno, the push does not seem unreasonable to me. Anyways, I would appreciate comments.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is difficult to rule out Axs from a loose player.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn put two flush draws on the AAJx board

[Unparagoned]

whoops...well, that certainly limits our possibilities... Ok, so the play becomes check/call on the flop with the intention of trying to get both of your opponents to put as many chips as possible into the pot. What do you think in terms of putting the other players on hands though, does it even matter?

[adanthar]

Sort of, since you're trying to get KJ not to fold. There's a good chance you're splitting the pot and you want the third guy's chips in there to sweeten it.

What you do from here is highly buyin dependent. I don't mind check/calling the whole way. Gigabet would overbet and hope someone pushes. I think we're both right depending on the game conditions and the average player.

It doesn't *really* matter though because you have tripsTK so you're not folding.

PS: OP: If you thought my post was worthless because you didn't get it, go through the whole hand again, start to finish, and figure out what you want to do and why you want to do it. If you think it was worthless because I didn't spell out a solution, quit poker now because you'll almost inevitably work your way up too far and lose your bankroll.

[Irieguy]

I play it exactly the same way most of the time. Adanthar's points are good, and may represent a better way of playing it. It depends on whether you want to place more weight on the value of getting your chips in early with what's likely the best of it... when small PPs and a Jack are more likely to call, or whether you want to place more weight on the value of keeping player 3 in. Personally, I think at the $33's it's easier to keep players in when you bet big and early. You will routinely see horrible calls.

As for the odds of a flush draw being out there, I get 1.3% with my quick calculations. It's more important to understand how Adanthar "knew" that than it is to know how I calculated it.

So I go broke, and I do it just like Skip did. I also wouldn't spend a lot of time ruminating on a hand like this. There are 3 characteristics of hand that will usually disqualify it from being interesting:

1. The hand is big.
2. You lead the betting.
3. You have position.

If all 3 of these are present, it definitely isn't worth any post-hoc thought. In this hand, you were out of position, so a brief mental tribute may be in order. But, in general, your game will improve more quickly if you focus on all of the likely many hands where you don't have top values and don't lead the betting.

Irieguy

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So another worthless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

What suited cards are calling a raise and a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

.. well, since you asked, this one happeded just last night.. . [have never posted a bad beat before, but this one is worth a laugh]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 (t1160)
CO (t785)
Button (t710)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t560)</font>
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t800)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t800)</font>
<font color="#C00000">MP2 (t800)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t150</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t140, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t800 (All-In)</font>, MP2 calls t650 (All-In), SB calls t410 (All-In).

Flop: (t2190) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2190) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t2190) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2190

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 2s 5s (flush, ace high).
Hero has Ks Kd (one pair, kings).
MP2 has Qs Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins t1710. Hero wins t480. </font>

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the chance of someone having a flush draw is 1%? How do you know?

[/ QUOTE ]

I said 1% because it's probably not 0% but it's definitely a whole lot less than 2%.

[/ QUOTE ]

What was your train of thought for figuring this out?
Thanks,
Steve

[two_dogs]

At Party? I think AJ or even KQ would call two raises not often but I have seen it