AK Against Tightish Player [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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spydog

01-25-2005, 12:41 PM

Villian is 18/4 with AF of 2.5 after 200+ hands.

I assume the flop 3-bet is standard with the board looking very drawy?

Should I bet this turn? I think he 3-bets KK, but not sure about JJ. I don't think he coldcalls 22. So, he's either:

1) Getting cute with AA.
2) He's hammering me with JJ
3) He coldcalled with AQs, ATs, or KJ(suited, but not clubbed) and is pounding his draw or 2 pair.

River: Value bet after the turn check or should I just induce a bluff if he's got the busted draw? I doubt he would try to bluff me after the preflop/flop action, so value bet seems the best choice.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (7.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero ......

Nick C

01-25-2005, 03:20 PM

I think your flop 3-bet is fine, and I probably would have been bullied into checking the turn also (especially since the turn card adds a new worry).

I think something like K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif starts looking likely when Button decides he wants a free card on the turn. (Or maybe he's just scared of AQ?) Does that mean you should bet the river? I don't know. Button might bet a hand like A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif that he probably wouldn't call with, and he might both bet and call with a hand like K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif. I doubt he'll check behind again with KJ, but he's not going to fold it, either.

I think I'd check-call the river, partly because I don't want to pay two bets to get to showdown, and I don't think I would fold to a raise.

By the way, given his fairly passive preflop stats, I think AK is another possibility for Button.

Freakin

01-25-2005, 03:52 PM

Looks like an easy value bet to me.

Freakin

ScottTheFish

01-25-2005, 03:56 PM

I would bet...looks like a flush draw to me. I guess an argument could be made that no worse hand will call here, but I'm not so sure.

Of course if I get raised here it sucks, and I will have to call it. I would probably bet and call a raise, but as I write it I'm not loving that plan. I'll be curious to see what others say.

chief444

01-25-2005, 03:57 PM

I'd say a flush draw including the K /images/graemlins/club.gif (KQs probably) or A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif are possibilities, maybe QT clubs or even 9T clubs but less likely. I don't think any hands you lose to checks the turn and I also don't think the river could have helped him.

I bet and call a raise.

Mister Z

01-25-2005, 06:53 PM

I'd put him on KQ/images/graemlins/club.gif. Even being passive I would think he would have 3-bet preflop with AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif, but that could be wrong. He missed his draw and you'll either be splitting the pot or winning with top pair. Value bet the river.

MoreWineII

01-25-2005, 06:58 PM

With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

Nick C

01-25-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you guys have gotten me thinking betting the river is best. A couple of points, though: (1) a 2.5 postflop aggression factor isn't passive, and (2) I really have my doubts about Villain calling with something like A /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif or Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif, especially given his tightness. I think it could be more likely he'd bet those hands himself as a desperation bluff than call with them.

However, K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif is more likely than the other missed draws I mentioned, and I do think Villain would probably be more inclined to call with that hand than bet it himself.

PhatPots

01-25-2005, 07:15 PM

I would bet that. I don't know why he would want to take a free card after he capped the flpp unless he was draw for a flush. Maybe he has Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif I think I would have to bet this river. That 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is a blank and didn't change anything. The only hand that would worry me is that he has KJ, but I think I would have to bet.

Cheers,
Pots

Schizo

01-25-2005, 07:18 PM

MoreWineII

01-25-2005, 08:18 PM

To Nick:

Yah, didn't notice the AF, but that only makes me think it's more likely that he *doesn't* have a hand that beats you as he'd have bet the turn. Do you think he'll bluff at the river I guess is the question. Maybe I'm a sucker, but once my opponent gives up on the turn, I tend to default to a value bet.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do in the unlikely event that you are raised? Make a crying call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Punch my dog, yell "What the [censored]??!" out loud, THEN call. The AF factor that I didn't see at first makes me even more determined to call a raise.