90k Stack Late in Tournament, Big Decision

[XChamp]

Ok this in a party $30+3, 1350 people entered. There are exactly 30 people left, so I have twice the avg. stack. I haven't played many $30's so I don't know the typical player very well. I assume they mostly are too loose for their own good and do not know much tournament strategy.

Here is the hand: (sorry bisonbison's site is down)
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Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Billy433 ( $20467 )
Seat 3: husgansen ( $89318 )
Seat 4: wjw4th ( $121436 )
Seat 5: coolerAA ( $75510 )
Seat 6: crazyivar ( $11360 )
Seat 7: OHammer ( $45405 )
Seat 8: XChamp2k ( $89225 )
Seat 10: MannoR ( $93950 )
Trny:8965978 Level:17
Blinds (3000/6000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to XChamp2k [ Jh Js ]
wjw4th folds.
coolerAA raises [17100].
crazyivar folds.
OHammer folds.
--------------------


What do you do, and why?

coolerAA had joined the table 12 hands before and had not played a single one. Here he is raising in early position. If I reraise then I need to put it to at least 40k and that is almost half my stack, and he might pop it back and then I probably have to call. Also, there were two big stacks to play after me who could have woken up with QQ,KK or AA and I was pretty sure that if MannoR had AK he wasn't laying it down no matter what action happened before him. I wasn't sure about HusGansen. He might fold AK if I raised, but not QQ.

ALso, if I raise to 40k then I'm pretty sure coolerAA calls with anyhting he raised with, which means if Q,K,A comes I'm in an ever harder situation. If an 8,9,T comes I need to be worried about a set.


If I move in then obviously if anyone calls I'm either in a race (possibly for all my chips) or losing horribly. I had no idea if coolerAA would fold AK if I moved in.

If I call then suddenly MannoR and husgansen are going to consider calling also (especially MannoR). Obviously this is not good.

SO what do you do? Taking down that 25k in the pot is very tempting, doubling up even more so.

[Pepsquad]

Fold. Assuming that an opponent has made it to the final 30 of a 1,350 player field by being "too loose for his own good" is not good - not good at all. 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. ... 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Narrowing his hand selection down to this range is horrible. He could many more hands such as AK, AQ, 1010-77, or even a complete steal (which doesn't seem likely because of the description, but still should not be completely discounted).

Folding in this spot looks like a big mistake. Calling is bad because there are not too many flops that look great to JJ. You can't raise because you pot commit yourself. The decision seems pretty easy: push.

I am pretty sure that pushing is clearly best here.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. ... 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Narrowing his hand selection down to this range is horrible. He could many more hands such as AK, AQ, 1010-77, or even a complete steal (which doesn't seem likely because of the description, but still should not be completely discounted).

Folding in this spot looks like a big mistake. Calling is bad because there are not too many flops that look great to JJ. You can't raise because you pot commit yourself. The decision seems pretty easy: push.

I am pretty sure that pushing is clearly best here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't disagree more. He knows nothing of villain other than the fact that he hasn't played a hand in his first full rotation at the table and now wakes up from early position with a 3XBB raise. Your inclusion of
77-99 is horrible given what we know. BEST case scenario is 1010 or AQ. Combine that with 2 stacks yet to act that have me covered? No thanks - next hand please.

[zaxx19]

How do you put the guy on 77 here as often as AA AK AQ QQ 1010 KK ....Im glad I read these forums bc they help me loosen up my own game but sometimes it just looks like you guys NEED TO PUSH ANYTHING DECENT and justify it with some silly logic.

If JJ is a clear push here...well your gonna have to get extremely lucky to win MTT's IMHO... but when you do you'll have like 90% of the chips in play once the final table begins lol. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DonButtons]

Options.

Fold (too weak tight for me)
Call (hmm-bail out on bad flop)
Reraise (make it look like you have KK or AA, and make it 35-45k to go)
Push preflop(coinflip, your dominated, or you have him dominated, duh)

These are some of those decisions in a tournament which sometimes are tricky. I prob. would reraise or push because Im very aggressive late in a tournament and push whenever I think I have a edge.

Of course sometimes you look down into AA, KK, QQ, but those are the only hands you are worried about. But when the blinds get big, people try stealing with hands like kq, aj, 99, etc...so I think its good to be aggressive with JJ...because with the big blinds, plus his bet preflop, give you nice odds to take a coin flip, or just to steal.

[Sluss]

Is it too weak to call this bet bailing out to a reraise behind and then pushing on any over card flop?

[XChamp]

I folded the hand after some long thought. husgansen called the raise and then fired out 30k on a flop of T62. coolerAA thought a while and then folded. Obviously coolerAA didn't have QQ+. I think he had AK; if he had 77,88,99 I think he would have called that flop bet. I know I would have.

[Goodie54]

Here are the problems with your line, sluss and Zaxx, you really gotta stop with the weak tight advice, it's no good for this forum.

Sluss, the problem with calling and pushing on a rag flop are these - it lets the big stacks behind in for a good price with KQ or a lot of other hands you don't want in.

What if the original better pushes on a rag flop, your faced with the same decision as pre-flop.

Letting the original bettor off the hook with a hand like AK AQ KQ is atrocious here. If he calls your re-raise with these hands than your getting the right price and have a good chance at the big money if you win this coin flip.

Folding should NOT be an option here. Weak tight play like this will never win anyone a poker tournament.

Peace

Goodie

[Goodie54]

The 2+2 dictionary's definition of the weak tight player --


Zaxx

Peace

Goodie

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Sluss, the problem with calling and pushing on a rag flop are these - it lets the big stacks behind in for a good price with KQ or a lot of other hands you don't want in.

What if the original better pushes on a rag flop, your faced with the same decision as pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, the big stack is not calling KQ behind unless he is a real moron (possible but not likely). Second, assuming the raiser has AK-AQ, there are A)less possible combinations of those hands behind you and B)it is now far less likely that AQ pushes in behind. (Coldcall, maybe. Push, no.) It is much more likely that a coldcaller behind has a lower pair/suited connectors/1 overcard (something like QJs), all of which you want in.

If the raiser pushes on a rag flop, yes, you have a tough decision. This is better than not having left yourself a decision at all when you push and QQ calls and/or when you push and 99 folds. If you're sufficiently good, being able to make any decision with more information will always be better than taking it out of your hands.

PS: If you call, there's a push behind and the original raiser folds, you probably call depending on who pushed. If the raiser calls, well, you've just answered your question for far less than 90 thousand chips.

[augie00]

While many probably don't know much tournament strategy, this late you'd be hard pressed to find someone who's "too loose for their own good." The typical $30 player is no better than the typical $20 player, if that helps.

When I get this late in a mutli, the only thing on my mind is winning. When it's down to the last few tables, I'm fully prepared to take a 57% advantage to double up, and give myself a shot at the real dough. Like Amir Vahedi said at the 2003 WSOP...if you want to live, you have to be willing to die.

If I can safely put my opponent on AK, I'm raising to make it about T52k to go. Lots of people say they would fold here, even if they thought the villian might have AK, because they don't want to put their "tournament life" on the line with a race. If you want to win, that's simply a bad decision.

Just because he's raising 1/3rd of his chips preflop doesn't mean that he's got a monster. 10BB is usually around the average stack, and a lot of players don't want to go buck-wild preflop with any playable hand.

FWIW, I'd be raising any pair, any two suited picture cards, and possibly some crap like ATs, looking to take down the blinds.

[MsMontreal]

The people that are telling you this is an easy fold are giving you bad information. What you have to realize is that you are currently in a Party Poker tournament and the blinds are about to get nonsensical. The way Party Poker tournaments work at this stage is that people are constantly raising and stealing blinds with all sorts of hands. And usually these raises are coming from early position. I know this goes against all logic, but players are more concerned with being "the one who gets to raise this time" rather than with position.

You aren't dealing with a WPT event here, you don't have time to work your chips and choose your spot. On Party Poker this is an easy reraise all in for me. Now on FTP, Stars or in a live event with a non prohibitive blind structure, the "easy fold" analysis is sound.

[Sam T.]

adanthar,

So are you saying to call and see how things play out on the flop?

Also, how would y'all play this if the hand was TT rather than JJ? (I was in a similar situation over the weekend, mucked, and felt icky afterwards. I just have a hell of a time playing TT and JJ.)

[schwza]

villain is raising 17k out of a 75k stack, or about 2/9 of his stack.

[JaBlue]

Blinds are so high that this is a fairly typical raise.

[schwza]

yeah, i know. others were quoting this as a 1/3-stack raise, though - just wanted to clarify.

[adanthar]

To a very tight villain who made an EP raise, yeah, I'd probably just call. I'd also call TT (and, assuming we were heads up, play as if I had an overpair if the top card on the flop was a jack). 99 and under would be trickier.

[DeeJ]

I push.

If he has QQ or better, I'm likely out.
If he's got AK/AQ/KQ I'm a coin flip.
If he's got AT or worse I'm likely good
If he's got TT or worse pair he's either folding or I'm the favorite.

Like you suggest, you don't want others in the pot. Since you have him covered, he has the difficult decision (assuming he doesn't have a monster)

[Tyler Durden]

If you put him on AK or AQ you shouldn't push. You should coldcall. Very unlikely someone behind you will enter the pot for such a large amount.

[XChamp]

I've never played a $20 MTT. I'm dropping down due to bankroll constraints. I use to play the NL$100+ MTTs frequently.

The problem here is that I was certain that this man had a decent hand and would call me down preflop no matter what. I had seen maybe 2 preflop raisers fold to a reraise after round 4. Why coin flip my whole stack? I had plenty of time. I folded and then quietly made my way to 105k via stealing, and then lost 70k when I put the BB (who was MannoR, BTW) all in w/ 77 and he called with KJs (a horrible call IMO since mid PP is best case scenario for me to have). I would much rather be in that situation than the previous one.

Had MannoR folded his average stack I would have had about 120k, which was going to be the average stack at the final table. I don't know about anyone here, but generally I find final tables to be the easiest stage of the tournament. I think the money goes to everyone's head. In all the final tables I've been at (at the $100 and $50 lvl at least, haven't had the pleasure of a final in a big tourney) I have found the play to be worse than your average $100 SnG, thus allowing me to climb quickly into the top 3.

Remember I had TWICE the average stack. I had at least 30 minutes or so of straight losing before I needed to start pushing my chips with hands like 55 and A9.

If I or coolerAA had a medium stack then I would have raised, no problem. If I didn't feel I was the best player at the table I would have pushed. But, jacks are a small pair. If your reraise is called you might as well be holding 22 because 22's odds are only 5% worse. Not very comforting when I'm currently 5th in the tourney.

[XChamp]

By the way, I am not nearly convinced that folding was correct for me. I appreciate everyone's input. Hopefully some more people will reply.

[zaxx19]

Here are the problems with your line, sluss and Zaxx, you really gotta stop with the weak tight advice, it's no good for this forum.


What was my advice here........???

All I said is it wasnt an auto-push, if you think thats weak-tight here well....thats really your problem bc most good players probably dont auto push here in a 30 dollar tourney.

I probably smooth call and look at a flop with a great hand in position and with enough chips left to play very soundly for the rest of the tourney. Not a horrible position to be in IMHO.

[docknet]

I agree with zaxx. JJ is a dog. It loses much too often. It plays like 33. Flop a set in most cases or you're done.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with zaxx. JJ is a dog. It loses much too often. It plays like 33. Flop a set in most cases or you're done.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think that's an accurate statement for the simple reason that I think someone holding TT and possibly even 99 would make that raise from that position. That gives a fairly big advantage to JJ over 33.

[Lloyd]

When I read the hand, the only two actions I even considered were calling and pushing. Folding just wasn't an option. JJ is way too good of a hand to be folding.

This reminds me of a post Tyler made the other day where the OP had 88 in EP late in a tourney. Should he push, fold, or (as Tyler suggested) just make a normal raise. One advantage to just making a normal raise in that situation (which applies here) is that it allows you to commit the rest of your chips with more information.

Obviously, the first thing you have to do is put your opponent on a range of hands. I would say that AK-AJ, AA-99 are all likely. I think there is certainly a chance that he makes this raise as a pure steal attempt, or with a lesser hand, but we can ignore that to be on the safe side. Against that range of hands, JJ is a slight favorite (just better than a coinflip). I don't think +EV situations come around often enough to pass them up late in a tournament with escalating blinds. So I just can't see folding as a good option.

So, I think a flat call is a good play here. I'm not overly worried about the players behind because if they raise we'll be able to base our next decision on more information then we have right now. And that's always an ideal situation in a game of imperfect information. Should we decide to fold, we'll still have a very playable stack because we're starting with twice the average. So while the OP stated that he would fold because he had twice the average stack and, therefore, had time to play, I would call because I had twice the average and can potentially win a nice pot and solidify my position as a chip leader (and therefore leading to more steal opportunities and places where a big stack can take control of the table).

If an Ace or a King hit the flop, I'd be prepared to bail. If he checked the flop with an Ace or King, I'd probably check behind. If he has a middle pair or was on a steal, he'd probably check the turn as well (as long as it didn't really improve his hand). I would think he'd be afraid of getting busted by what could be a big hand we're holding (after all, smooth calling in this pre-flop situation can be very intimidating). So if he checked the turn I'd give some thought to taking a stab at the pot. If an Ace or King didn't hit the flop, I'd probably be willing to commit some chips to winning it. But one way or another, we'd be able to make the decision with more information than we had at the beginning of the hand.

So in summary, we can't pass up on +EV situations when they come along. And it's often better to take a course of action that allows us to make decisions with more information when our advantage is small.

[JaBlue]

I don't know about you, but I don't mind coinflipping here. The reason I want to push is the likelyhood that the villain has 1010 or worse. There's plenty of dead money in the pot, and against AK/AQ, you're 55-45. That's HUGE +ev.

[HoldingFolding]

I think there is a lot of truth to this. He may have hit a big hand, but he may also have had trash for a while and finally got a sort of a hand. Weakish (AQ, AJ, KQ?), but one he thinks he can steal the blinds with (post flop fold gives this idea credence). Also, would he play AA or KK this way? If not you can rule out 2 of the 3 hands you are dominated by.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is a lot of truth to this. He may have hit a big hand, but he may also have had trash for a while and finally got a sort of a hand. Weakish (AQ, AJ, KQ?), but one he thinks he can steal the blinds with (post flop fold gives this idea credence). Also, would he play AA or KK this way? If not you can rule out 2 of the 3 hands you are dominated by.

[/ QUOTE ]

How else would he play AA or KK but come in with a standard raise? Push to discourage action?