EdFish moves up to 3/6

[edtost]

too weak? villain seemed fairly loose/passive after ~2 orbits.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (9 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

[sthief09]

if you had a more reliable read, you could fold the turn. otherwise, I like it because he could be semibluffing

[sfer]

Ni han.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i don't think there's anything else you can do about this.

[gaming_mouse]

To convince yourself this is good, think about it this way.

If he is bluffing or semi-bluffing, you win the most, because he will likely fold if you raise the turn, or may even fold if you raise the river. In fact, raising the river and folding to a 3-bet is the only other good option I see here. However, since he is fairly unknown you probably want to see a showdown, so your line is best.

If he's not bluffing, you lose the least. Again, you could lose less if you were willing to fold the turn, but that seems like a bad option vs an unknown.

gm

[bdk3clash]

Standard, well played. I assume a few weeks ago you (incorrectly) raise this turn.

[Derek in NYC]

OK, I'm way out of line here with conventional wisdom. Why is raising the turn wrong? Just because somebody does a stop &amp; go you're going to give him credit for trips? A few thoughts:

1. In my experience, somebody who makes trips on 4th street, but has the flop aggressor to the left, often goes for the checkraise. Leading on a scare card is more often than not a semi/total bluff. See SSH, p 167 n.64

2. If behind, you will be three-bet, in which case you can fold, losing the same amount as check-calling the big streets. (Bluff-reraises, given the prior action, are almost non-existent at 3/6, I think, except from the occasional maniac).

3. If you are ahead, you will often get called down by somebody holding an overpair to the board such as TT or JJ, as many at 3/6 are unwilling to fold their overpair to an even bigger overpair.

Bottom line: absent a read on this guy as a tight passive, I think raising is the right course.

PS--by the way, now that I go back and re-read the footnote from SSH, I think this is very consistent with somebody holding a semibluff card. This example and the SSH example are, if not identical, at least quite similar. As Evan mentioned, 88 is an extremely likely holding in addition to semi-large overpairs.

[Evan]

I think there's a case to be made for raising the river. FWIW I think he has a smaller pp a lot of the time, a lot of that time it will be 88 imo.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a case to be made for raising the river. FWIW I think he has a smaller pp a lot of the time, a lot of that time it will be 88 imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree--raising and folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty hot.

scrub

[scrub]

Also, because I like to pound this into the ground, guys usually have the same thing every time they use this line.

I usually call down and take a note the first time an unknown rando bets the turn into me, but that's because I tend to give up small edges against unknowns in favor of seeing their cards and taking a note.

I'm pretty sure there's value in raising the river, though.

scrub

[Kaz The Original]

As I was perusing this post I immediately wondered - "why not raise the turn?". Now that I think about it, and read some responses raising the river is where it's at.

[Derek in NYC]

Please explain the rationale behind raising the river vs. raising the turn? (And in both instances, folding to a 3-bet).

[edtost]

can i really fold to a 3bet here vs an unknown? feeling like i would have to call it down was one of the main reasons i didn't raise.

btw, i made a note of what he had.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
can i really fold to a 3bet here vs an unknown? feeling like i would have to call it down was one of the main reasons i didn't raise.

btw, i made a note of what he had.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
too weak? villain seemed fairly loose/passive after ~2 orbits.


[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience, you can usually spot someone capable of bluff-3-betting the river 1/12 times against a call/raise line when paint comes off on the end within two orbit, so I'm pretty sure that the highest EV if you were going to pick up after this hand would be raise/fold to a 3-bet.

Like I said, I think the showdown against an unknown employing a weird line on a scare card is worth more in the long run than the fraction of a bet you get from raising, so I like call/note.

But I'm sure that raise/fold is worth more money than raise/call.

scrub

[Evan]

You lose bets from bluffs by raising the turn. A lot of the time that this is not a lower pocket pair it will be a stone cold bluff that will not give you any more money.

[Schizo]

If 3 bet on river raise would you fold?

[Schizo]

bump

[sthief09]

you're going to see a 9 more often than a pocket pair. if you knew for a fact this guy was passive, then he's got trips. my issue with the free showdown/fold to a 3-bet play is that a passive player is going to play trips perfectly, that is he'll call your raise then fire at the river again.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
You lose bets from bluffs by raising the turn. A lot of the time that this is not a lower pocket pair it will be a stone cold bluff that will not give you any more money.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't agree with this at all. if anything, you should be raising the turn. he's either got you beat or he's semi-bluffing. he's rarely going to be on a complete BS bluff here. he'll have some outs against you, whether it's a pair and a draw, or just a draw. in this spot, if he semi-bluffs the turn, he'll probably semi-bluff the river too, and a possibly passive player will often have trips, so I don't see much of a point in popping the turn