How easy is it to win at sports betting?

[ZeeJustin]

A friend of mine offered to give me his sports picks. He's 19 years old, and claims he has been sports betting since age 13 (almost certainly a fabrication of some sort) and has never had a losing year. He watches sports games on tv all the time, but rarely reads about sports, and never uses computer aid to pick teams.

The person is very intelligent and is a great poker player, and claims to be even better at sports betting than he is at poker.

I'm strongly considering investing 30k in this kid's picks, although I am somewhat concerned that he is overly confident based on limited results.

I know very ittle at sports betting, and really have no clue how many people that think they are longterm winners actually are. What do you experts think?

Also, if anyone else would like to sell me a years worth of pics for a small % of my profits, let me know.

[craig r]

Does he have documented records? Most likely not. Where was he betting since he was 13? I would be very skeptical.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if anyone else would like to sell me a years worth of pics for a small % of my profits, let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't do this. Anybody can get lucky. The "seller" would be in a win/win situation. Where you are in a lose/lose.

craig

[tech]

Craig is exactly right. Beating sports consistently over a long period of time is harder than most people think. Ask to see documentation. If he says he hasn't had a losing year, he should have documentation to back that up. Then check the sample size. If it's less than 500 picks or so (and preferably 1000), I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in it.

Most people that try their hand at sports betting think they can win because they watch sports a lot on TV. What they don't realize is that everything on TV is public information and is thus already factored into the line. The linesmakers watched the games too, as did all the other bettors out there.

[shemp]

Do the numbers. The rake is 10%+. How much can his edge be? How much can a small percentage of that be? How much are you giving up if he can beat the crap out of sports? If it beats and index fund, I'll kiss your ass.

He may be smart, good looking, good at poker, have a good track record, etc., -- doesn't make it a good idea. And a sports bettor without records has as much credibility as a self claimed winning craps/black jack/poker/etc player without records.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
The rake is 10%+.

[/ QUOTE ] I thought there were 4% lines out there.

[tech]

Not sure where his 10% number came from. The house edge is 4.55% on standard lines. If you get reduced juice (e.g., at Pinnacle), your disadvantage is less than that.

[craig r]

You might be getting confused with the house edge being a little more than 4%. The cheapest lines are usually -107 for football and basketball. And some sites will have special promotions on fridays, for example.

craig

[craig r]

damn it tech!! We were both posting at the same time.

craig

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
damn it tech!! We were both posting at the same time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't there a saying about that? Something about great minds ... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
He watches sports games on tv all the time, but rarely reads about sports, and never uses computer aid to pick teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he is a longterm winner. Most people who don't track their results tend to forget their losses... real gamblers...

Anyway, you can quiz the kid-
Have him handicap a few games and ask for his explanations... do they make sense? you can see if he wins

Warning: even when flipping a coin, hot streaks happen

A cheesy online test I found this week-
http://www.professionalgambler.com/iqtest.html
I got an 8... math /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[sublime]

How easy is it to win at sports betting?

ahhh a simple question with many different answers. making money betting sports isnt really that hard. there are tons of sportsbooks out there that offere pretty good sign up bonus money and all sorts of promos (free 1/2 pts reduced juice etc) and you can make some decent money just rolling your money thru all these books. actually real good money, come to think of it. there are different factors you need to consider:

Handicapping- Its not easy. Its not like poker where you can pick up a book and "learn" to win. You need to do a LOT of reseach to find winning subsets, and then do even more research to make sure the subsets are "real" and will win going forward. Buying other peoples picks isnt as easy as it sounds. you basically want to have proof that the person is a winner over at least 500 picks and falls into the 53-56% winners range. I have one or two guys I could recommend you to (the guys at sharp sportsbetting and Dan Gorden and Steve Fezzik at las vegas advisors) as for your friend, it doesnt sound like he is the way to go. however you know him better than any of us.

Getting the "best of it"- If a capper releases a NBA pick at +3 (which would be what people call widely available, meaning you can get it numerous offshore books) you have to be willing to look as hard as possible for something better than +3. A half point is huge in sportsbetting (especially on key numbers in the NFL, but important in any sport) as is reduced juice etc. I have about 15 active accounts going at any time (some are my foundation books that i always have money at, others are books i am just usuing for a bonus, and yet other that are only really good cuz they offer promos such as free 1/2 pts, -105 happy hours ETC)

Money Management- A big one. If you plan on doing this seriosly and have a long term outlook you have to have a sound money management system. I currently wager about 1.5% of my bankroll on each game i play. some use more (2%) others use less (1%). IMO, anything over 2% is just being overaggressive and asking for trouble. I have had pretty nasty downswings using 2% and believe me, it hurts. Also stray clear of bozos telling you you shoule bet twice as much or three times as much on one game as another on a regular basis. Games that you have 2-3x the normal edge happen VERY rarely (maybe once/twice a season, if that)

Anyways, you are fortunate to a have a sizeable chunk of cash to start with so you can make some good capital just claiminmg bonus money. Also if you use a good MM system your bets will be big enough to actually have meaning.

If you have any questions, just post em. But this forum is no different than the poker strategy forums. You will get a lot of "noise" along with a good answer.

[tech]

Very nice post, Sublime.

The one thing I would add is that there are lots of ways to beat sports other than handicapping and trying to pick winners and losers. For example, prop bets are substantially easier to beat than sides and totals, mainly because not a lot of thought is put into them on the part of the books. The bad thing is that the betting limits are much lower on props. Also, there are people who profit on sports without even doing much handicapping (following steam, scalping, etc.). Again, nice post.

[sublime]

The one thing I would add is that there are lots of ways to beat sports other than handicapping and trying to pick winners and losers. For example, prop bets are substantially easier to beat than sides and totals, mainly because not a lot of thought is put into them on the part of the books. The bad thing is that the betting limits are much lower on props. Also, there are people who profit on sports without even doing much handicapping (following steam, scalping, etc.). Again, nice post.

its funny you mention prop bets. a friend of mine basically built his bankroll off of prop bets 3-4 years ago. apparently they were VERY soft and books didnt cap the limits at such low #'s as they do now. anyhow, they have gotten a lot tougher to beat and even if you do devise a way to beat then (hint think fantasy players) you are fighting over crumbs with the other +EV prop bettors. on top of that, my friend (and i to a lesser extent) have been basically barred from bettin props at certain sites. somre of them cut our limits down to $30 and other insisted that we wager 10x our prop amounts on straight wagers. even with all those drawbacks, i agree that props have a larger edge than regular sides. of course haveing a larger edge doesnt matter much when your volume is so small.

following steam is anotehr way, albeit a lot easier than it sounds. you have to find some slow books, and once they catch on to whatn you are doing you will be barred. most sites post warnings about 'steam' players and how they are not welcome.

scalping can be very profitable i imagine, especially during baseball. it is probably VERY time consuming however and requires a fairly large bankroll to make it worhtwhile, although i do occasionaly scalp off of key #'s etc when the chance arises.

i think the easiest way is to find a reputable capper and follow them, however I am of course biased as that is how i choose to make money. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ttleistdci]

What's following steam? Never heard of it.

[sublime]

What's following steam? Never heard of it.

a fat guy farts and you follow him /images/graemlins/grin.gif

basically its betting games that are making huge moves. example:

chicago is -7 everywhere, all of a sudden at pinnacle the line drops to -5.5, you try and get down at a smaller site at +7/+6.5 before they move the line/or get hit themselves.

[ttleistdci]

Gotcha.

Thanks.

[tech]

Prop bets are still very soft, although I agree that they are not as soft as they used to be. There was a prop at one of the major offshores this year during NFL season that I know they just absolutely took a bath on. They were offering it at -115 when it should have been -200. They finally took it down week 14 or so.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
He watches sports games on tv all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sold. Sign me up for 100k.

[WarDekar]

I have not read through the rest of this thread, but from what you describe I would HIGHLY doubt he is actually a winning capper on widely available lines. If you know what you're doing, sports betting is quite easy to profit at, and I would highly suggest it to someone such as yourself. Chance are though this guy is either dillusional or he is trying to take advantage of your success in some way.

If you're interested in getting into sports, do it the right way, visit some boards (www.sharpsportsbetting.com and www.fezziksplace.com (http://www.fezziksplace.com) are decent, have gone downhill lately but the best out there IMO) and get a good idea what you're getting into before you start. If you have any questions I'd be glad to answer them via PM, the key to making low-risk money in sports is looking at different betting angles and not necessarily betting straight picks on games.

[smartalecc5]

why spend 30k at something you have no idea in what your doing?

WHy not spend like 10k?

[MicroBob]

Furthermore, if he's really a friend, why is he trying to sell his picks to you for $30k??


Sublime had a pretty good post in there.
Interesting stuff.


To answer your original question more directly....I've heard figures that something around 2% of sports-bettors are actually long-term winners....but this was obviously an estimate made by people who likely had no definitive way of knowing.
Probably not THAT different than poker-players I guess when you consider the number of clueless players out there.

[shemp]

On Pinnacle, typically, the house is taking 5% of the total, but 10% more than the winners. So I'm wrong I suppose...

I still say if you want to get your ass kicked gambling, bet sports or become a day trader. You might on the other hand develop some more conservative investment strategies at your tender age, and learn the power of compound interest, etc.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, if he's really a friend, why is he trying to sell his picks to you for $30k??

[/ QUOTE ]

The 30k is the bankroll I would set aside (although given this thread, I prolly won't be investing anything). I never even implied that he's charging me for the pics.

[Ezcheeze]

I see no reason why you would do this. Theres gotta be better spots for your money (higher limit poker?) than this (very likely -EV) gamble.

-Ezcheeze

[sublime]

Also, there are people who profit on sports without even doing much handicapping (following steam, scalping, etc.).

fezzik just made a post on SSB about steam plays, pretty good stuff.

fez (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/general/index.cgi/read/24272)

[eastbay]

"Blackjack players often espouse using different-sized bets against sports, but that's wrong. Note that against blackjack they ALWAYS advise using the SAME size bet against a PARTICULAR positive count. When the deck is giving them more than a 4 percent advantage, you can bet they ALWAYS advise risking the maximum bet. Against sports, we presume to ALWAYS have at least a 4 percent advantage, therefore our bet size never changes. Unlike blackjack, the "deck" is never against us, so we don't have to worry about betting a "minimum" bet; - when the odds are against you in sports you don't have to bet at all! "

I'm not a sports bettor but that seems wrong from a fundamentals of gambling perspective. Does a sports bettor never believe they have a higher edge in one bet over another? Of course they would bet more with a bigger edge, right?

eastbay

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm not a sports bettor but that seems wrong from a fundamentals of gambling perspective. Does a sports bettor never believe they have a higher edge in one bet over another? Of course they would bet more with a bigger edge, right?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Sports betting differs from blackjack in the sense that you can never know 'for sure' what your edge is in any given bet. However, you can make a pretty good confidence interval as to where you stand in terms of EV, whether or not your bet is -EV, marginally +EV, or hugely +EV.

An example is this: I am a professional NBA bettor, and I see that Seattle is listed as +3 (3 point underdog) vs. Phoenix. I make an assessment that this line should be about 'fair', or close to 50/50. I would of course decide to not bet this game.

Now, about half an hour before the game is scheduled to tip off, I open up one of my 'outs' (sportsbooks), and see that Seattle is now +4 -105. Now, assuming there are no significant injuries to speak of, I could blindly bet Seattle at +4 and have +EV. The extra point on the bet would give me about 8% more EV, and betting at -105 instead of -110 would give me about 2.5% more EV.

Doing the 'math', it is true that Seattle +4 -105 would only need to win about 51.2% of the time to break even. Given the extra point I have received, I can probably estimate that my bet will win approx. 53-54% of the time. However, I would make a standard bet of only 1.5-2% of my bankroll, since this is not a hugely significant +EV wager.

Now, if I were to find a bet that I predicted would win 58% or more of the time, I would not be hesitant to wager 3-4% of my bankroll on the wager, given my huge +EV. The key is to bet in bigger 'chunks' the more edge you believe you have, without going overboard (betting 10% of your bankroll on a play is a recipe for disaster).

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
although given this thread, I prolly won't be investing anything

[/ QUOTE ]

I came here about a month ago with something very similar because I thought it would be easy money with no work involved. Luckily, they talked some sense into me too...

[DeucesUp]

To give you an idea, a few weeks ago, I tallied up the results from the forum's "3+1" contest:
Notes on 3+1 contest (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=Sports&Number=1473877&Foru m=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=1 473877&Search=true&where=&Name=4749&daterange=&new erval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#P ost1473877)

And although no one seemed the least bit interested in the post as I didn't get a single reply (no I'm not bitter), it shows that, as a group, those that participated in the contest wouldn't have beat the vig. Obviously most of the participants are not pro handicappers so this doesn't prove that it's impossible, but I think it does show that you have to significantly better than a typical educated amateur to win. My guess is that most of the participants of the contest would also claim that they could win at sports betting in the long run, and probably a few of them can, but, like poker, most of the people who say they're long term winners probably aren't.