Strange $109 PP First hand

[TomCollins]

First hand, 1k stacks. I'm in BB with JJ (10/15 blinds). 1 limper in middle position, small blind completes. I raise to 75, limper folds, small blind re-raises to 500. I push, he calls, shows 45o, and busts.

I made this call because I did not fear AA, KK, QQ. I put him on possibly AK, and a very good chance at a low pair.

Is this push with JJ profitable having 0 read on an opponent?

[citanul]

at 109, this play is not so good.

if it is +Chip EV, it is just barely. it's a pretty dumb spot to gamble it up.

if you put him on exactly AK, i'm pretty sure you're supposed to fold.

why, if i can ask, would you distinctly put him on AK but not AA KK or QQ?

citanul

[kspade]

If you have 0 read, how do you not put him on a higher PP?

[assron]

I would lay that down in under 2 seconds

[TomCollins]

He had a chance to raise before, with only 1 player to act. It is so foolish to play KK, AA, QQ this way. Players are more likely to limp with AKo. I thought it was more likely he had TT or so.

And if he shows AK here, I would never fold.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
It is so foolish to play KK, AA, QQ this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
and to go all-in with 45o isnt?
instead of putting him on AK, it is better to put him on range of hands he could have, and estimate the average.
fold for 100+9 Sng. push for 20+2 or lower.

[Elektrik]

It takes a very tricky player to simply complete after one limper in the SB with AA, KK, or QQ and give the limper a free flop with position. Most of the time, the BB will check behind. I also think the SB would usually raise with AK, and possibly AQ.

Next, SB's reraise was a massive overbet of the pot. Most players with AA or KK will make a smaller raise, unless they're being tricky again.

For those reasons, I don't think he has AA, KK, QQ, or even AK, and if he does he's played it very, very strangely. I'd venture to say he'll usually have a medium pocket pair like TT, 99, or 88, although with the strange way he played it I really can't put him on a solid hand.

I push.

[pooh74]

2 things come to mind while readin this thread, 1 an assertion, the other a question/assertion.

1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss. If midway through, bubble, in money...absolutely...but on first hand I would only want these bets pf where I am "sure" (there are no sures) I have at least a 70-30 and I will actually only play this % of stack post flop where I know more or less where I stand as to final outcome.

2. Where are we distinguishing this move b/t a 109 or a 20? Is the thinking that at a 20 the sb would be more likely to make this move with 88 where at 109 he would not? not sure this is relevant...treat them all the same, although hard IMO.

p

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're a typical winning but not crushing the $100's player, your ROI will be in the 10-15% range. If he shows you AK and you fold, you are passing on an 11:9 shot to double up - a play that's actually better than your average return. You *cannot* do that.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Where are we distinguishing this move b/t a 109 or a 20? Is the thinking that at a 20 the sb would be more likely to make this move with 88 where at 109 he would not? not sure this is relevant...treat them all the same, although hard IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you treat them all the same you will lose incredibly large amounts of money every time you try to move up. The level of sophistication of your opponent is *very* relevant.

[pooh74]

thanks,

as to your second point, nonetheless ( i know this a results oriented example) the guy here turned over 45o...i wouldnt expect that even at the 5s. but overall, i feel some adjustment to opponent is necessary as you move up, of course, good point.

As to the first point, what i meant was, does doubling up 11:9 really translate into $s...Don't know what ICM would say about this and furthemore is it even much of a factor at all on the first hand where you're still up against 9 players? Still have to disagree here...i wanna see a flop with JJ first hand...any level.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss. If midway through, bubble, in money...absolutely...but on first hand I would only want these bets pf where I am "sure" (there are no sures) I have at least a 70-30 and I will actually only play this % of stack post flop where I know more or less where I stand as to final outcome.


[/ QUOTE ]

There was a post a while back, if you feel like searching, discusssing pushing small edges early in an SnG.

The concensus, i believe, was that it was bad for your ROI but good for your hourly rate = overall, a good move.

-Jman28

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
As to the first point, what i meant was, does doubling up 11:9 really translate into $s...

[/ QUOTE ]

For a basic example, assume an 8 handed table where everyone starts with 1K. You need to win 3 coinflips with an even chip stack to win; all else being equal, everyone at the table will break even (lose some $ to the rake.) If your odds are 11:9 on all 3 flips, though, of course you'll make money.

For the 'passing up an opportunity to win more chips' concept to apply, your ROI needs to be high enough. In other words, you must be assured of getting that 60:40 or 70:30 chance later. If it is relatively low, your main advantage comes from flips like that one.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss. If midway through, bubble, in money...absolutely...but on first hand I would only want these bets pf where I am "sure" (there are no sures) I have at least a 70-30 and I will actually only play this % of stack post flop where I know more or less where I stand as to final outcome.


[/ QUOTE ]

There was a post a while back, if you feel like searching, discusssing pushing small edges early in an SnG.

The concensus, i believe, was that it was bad for your ROI but good for your hourly rate = overall, a good move.

-Jman28

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point...hourly rate consideration is valid...id rather go down early on a 11:9 than on the bubble for time's sake...but again, that move on the bubble guarantees $ where early it does not...You're all right, I am sorry I belabored this point...just seemed to me that some better opportunties would present themselves, or outplaying opponents Postflop is more advantageous.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

2. Where are we distinguishing this move b/t a 109 or a 20?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because the play is very different.

[ QUOTE ]

not sure this is relevant...treat them all the same, although hard IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]

No. It is very relevant. Treating them all the same is a terrible mistake.

eastbay

[PrayingMantis]

Looking at it from a somewhat different angle:

The huge disproportioned limp-behind-reraise-huge from SB smells like a tilty move to me, so actually, I'm not very surprised to see a garbage hand in this spot. I'll be more surprised to see a big hand. I think JJ is a big favorite against SB's range of hands, unless you play a lot against him and you have a very specific read about him making some kind of a very tricky move. But you say you have 0 read - so that's how I see it.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is so foolish to play KK, AA, QQ this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
and to go all-in with 45o isnt?
instead of putting him on AK, it is better to put him on range of hands he could have, and estimate the average.
fold for 100+9 Sng. push for 20+2 or lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread my post. I said "possibly AK, but very likely a low pair".

Against this range, I am either a small favorite or a HUGE favorite.

[TomCollins]

[ QUOTE ]

1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss. If midway through, bubble, in money...absolutely...but on first hand I would only want these bets pf where I am "sure" (there are no sures) I have at least a 70-30 and I will actually only play this % of stack post flop where I know more or less where I stand as to final outcome.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because my last name doesnt rhyme with Bellmuth.
If I double up, I'm in great shape the rest of the tournament. My ITM chances went up from 35% to probably closer to 60%. My win% went up from 12% to closer to 20%.
If I bust, I can start a new tournament.

Let's assume my win rates are 12% 12% 12% for 1-2-3, for a 10% ROI average.

Assume by doubling, my win rate nearly doubles. 22% 22% 22%. My win rate went up to $111/tourney. Thats $71/EV when I double up. So he is going to win AKs of suits I do not have- my worst scenerio. I win 54% of the time. So my EV on the tournament is $-109*.46+$111*.60 = $16.46. My EV of folding is my original EV, which in this example is around $11.

Now, this all comes down to assumptions. The biggest assumption is what my win rate is if i double up. I'll leave that to debate another time.