here is a hand I still have not figured out.

[barrem23]

This is a hand I had in a 10 person SNG. The blinds were at 15 and 30. We were still 10 people and no one had really taken any big pots.

I was the button and was delt AA. I raised to straight 100. Everyone folded except someone in mid-position, he just called. My read on him was that he was conservative. I would say that he was probably a TPP. I hadn't seen him bet at anything yet. He had called a few blinds and folded to the first bet. So the flop comes 6-5-5 rainbow. He is to act first and pushes all in. I was caught totaly off-gurard . I thought about it for a while and folded. I thought maybe he had 66, and this early in the tournament I decided to fold rather than be crippled if he had 66 or 55 or just a 5.

What do people think of this decision?

[11t]

I am typically a lurker but I simply must respond to your post. If I made this fold it would haunt me for the rest of my poker life.

Think about it, if he flopped the boat or quads do you really think he would push all in instantly? I do not think most players would make such a play.

Now think about the types of hands you think he would call your raise with and make this play, you have them all beat. I would put him on TT thru 88 and that he was simply attempting to protect what he felt was the best hand. I think it is almost impossible that he has a 5 in his hand as well, if he was a rock like you said how could he call your raise with a 5? If you had a read on him you made a terrible play.

While you did indeed avoid being crippled I think you did so at the expense of folding the winning hand.

[Mons]

This is a fine fold unless you have a better read. Smells like 66/55 but he may just be trying to make a play on you with a flop he knows you missed. However I don't think it's worth investing your stack to find out.

EDIT: I'm very weak/tight so 11t's advice is much better! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[barrem23]

I agree with you that he definatly did not have a 5, but a lot of players will call with a PP. Good point he may be been just trying to protect his hand. As I said I was caught totaly off-guard and never thought of that.

[ricochet420]

Easy call with that read. Do you really think he'd call your raise with Ax or the like to flop trips? If so then easy fold. Other wise.....take his money.

[El Maximo]

I agree. That is a strange push for that flop. He either has a monster or is trying hard to push you off this hand. I would grit my teeth and call expecting to be ahead most of the time.

[etgryphon]

I think this is where you have to give credit to the guy for a great play...

This is one of those hands that it is tough to call with an overpair. The only time that I think that I would call would be later in when the blinds are bigger. But, if your read on this guy is correct then its a fold if you believe him to play good hands.

On the other hand...

If he did have 66, 55, or a lone 5 why wouldn't he extract the most from the preflop raiser (you) because you know that you would have bet out on the flop.

So this really comes down to whether you think that you missed your one chance or whether you play well enough to be able to fold AA on the button. If you're only shot at winning is playing AA then there need to be some improvement to you game.

You should have raised more preflop if there were limpers. Like (2x#ofLimpers + 3xBB) or so that puts the guy on a possible stronger holding.

Also, Does he have you covered or do you have him covered?

If it makes you feel better...I would have folded also...But I'm about 50% sure that he didn't have anything, but I'd be ok with that because the pot is too small.

-Gryph

[betgo]

If you thought he had a decent pocket pair, then you are way ahead. You have to call. In this situation, it is unlikley he would push with trips or a boat, so you are almost certainly way ahead.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I think the decision was awful.

He probably had 88 and wanted you to fold AK. If he checked, you are definately going to bet, so he figured he'd lead out and put you to the decision instead.

If he had 66, 55 or x5, why would he play the hand like this? The vast majority of players would check in this spot and let you dig your own grave. Others will bet out a small amount to confuse you. Very few will push.

[The Yugoslavian]

Yuck is what I think. If he really has 66, A5 or 55 do you think he's not going to slowplay here and just jam the pot? Frankly, those three hands I just mentioned aren't even all that likely here as he called a significant raise -- it's much more likely he has a mid pocket pair or even overcards and is overbetting the flop for no good reason.

I'm not folding here on any SNG level -- and I can't even think of an opponent I'd fold to here either. Sure when you're behind your drawing almost dead but it is *far* more likely you are the one who is significantly ahead.

Yugoslav

[barrem23]

I had him covered in chips, but only by ~100.

Also later in the tournament he held to his TTP style as I had stolen his blind more than once with some aggressive bets, eventually he was blinded out of the tournament.

As for me I went out on a hand I am still kicking myself for. Up against another conservative player with AKs in late position. Blinds are at 100-200, and I make it 500. The SB is the only caller. Flop comes A-Q-5, with 2 hearts. He checks to me and I bet 1000. He quickly calls. Turn is another A, and not a heart. This time he bets 500 and I raise to 1000. He re-raises me all-in. At this point I definatly put him on and A and decide to call. I was pretty much pot commited at this point. The river is nothing, not that it mattered, as he flipped over his AQx. I think I should have seen this coming as he was pretty conservative and probably would not be beting with Ax.

[lorinda]

I think you'll be ahead and facing only two outs about 80% of the time.

I'll happily lose this 20% of the time to double up the other 80%.

The times he shows the winning hand, I just treat it as a bad beat and move on.

Lori

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think he'd call your raise with Ax or the like to flop trips? If so then easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. It's ALWAYS an easy call, because even a fish that will coldcall A5 will also coldcall 87/TT-88/A6 and play them all exactly the same way.

You shouldn't even be thinking here.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
As for me I went out on a hand I am still kicking myself for. Up against another conservative player with AKs in late position. Blinds are at 100-200, and I make it 500. The SB is the only caller. Flop comes A-Q-5, with 2 hearts. He checks to me and I bet 1000. He quickly calls. Turn is another A, and not a heart. This time he bets 500 and I raise to 1000. He re-raises me all-in. At this point I definatly put him on and A and decide to call. I was pretty much pot commited at this point. The river is nothing, not that it mattered, as he flipped over his AQx. I think I should have seen this coming as he was pretty conservative and probably would not be beting with Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quit poker. At the very least, reread some books before playing again.

You are either far too results oriented or far too weak tight. Folding this would be worse than the AA fold.

[lorinda]

I think I should have seen this coming as he was pretty conservative and probably would not be beting with Ax.

He will show you AJ nearly as often as AQ and he will show you Ax sometimes too, as well as xx.
Also, you are allowed to river a king or queen from time to time.

Lori

[etgryphon]

I'm with the others on this one, but maybe less harsh...

I wouldn't kick myself it just looks like you should.

Looking over my last post. I think I'm aggreeing with all the other people posts and want to revise tha I think 70%-80% the guy has a lower PP than you and he is trying to take it away.

With that said...I think that if I paused to think about it, I would fold because I think there are better places to put my money in with alla Helmuth-style...Does that make me a bad person? Weak-Tight maybe...

With that also being said...I think my instincts in the moment would take over and I would call and win.

-Gryph

[lorinda]

I think there are better places to put my money in with alla Helmuth-style

Just because the cards are already dealt, it doesn't change the % chance based on what you know.
You can't hope for a much better spot than "70-80%"

Lori

[nuclear500]

[ QUOTE ]
Also later in the tournament he held to his TTP style as I had stolen his blind more than once with some aggressive bets, eventually he was blinded out of the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

With this happening, it actually becomes more likely to place his hand. He probably did have a 5 or more likely A6 figuring you'd be drawing to your Ace kicker in order to win.

Sounds like he was weak - anyone who lets themselves be blinded out before picking a hand to take to the river is weak. Weak players would fail to understand how to extract value.

If he had 66 or 56 or a lone 5, you have to pay him off.

[barrem23]

I did not fold this, I called.

[Bigwig]

You should have called.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I did not fold this, I called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's what I said when I wrote "would be worse". You said "I should have seen this coming", implying that in retrospect you'd find a fold there.

You shouldn't, and it's not close.

[skoal2k4]

I like the fold, especially if you see him as a conservative player. I don't believe he/she is truly bluffing and you could very well have them dominated as they're playing a wired pair 7's to kings, but why risk it at this point? Blinds are low enough that this won't really hurt you that bad to fold and wait for a better situation. Muck those aces

Robbie

[jojobinks]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the fold, especially if you see him as a conservative player. I don't believe he/she is truly bluffing and you could very well have them dominated as they're playing a wired pair 7's to kings, but why risk it at this point? Blinds are low enough that this won't really hurt you that bad to fold and wait for a better situation. Muck those aces

Robbie

[/ QUOTE ]

if he's a conservative player...then we assume that he's got 55 or 66? only if he's a loose player does he have a lone 6 (or whatever the pair was, i forget). if you feel so confident of your abilities to read the hand that you can put him specifically on one of two pocket pairs, then go for it. it seems like the other 99% of us feel like you've almost certainly got to be ahead. if you're ahead most of the time, to the tune of 60-80%...then as lorinda said, it's a bad beat, so what? move on. this is assuming that this guy's playing at a level that his Bankroll can handle. if this tournament means 1/2 his bankroll, then he's forced to make mistakes like folding here.

[skoal2k4]

if you assume he has 55 or 66, then why are you calling his all-in? I'm not trying to argue, just trying to see what you're saying. After reading all the reply's, I can definately see calling the all-in. I still like the fold this early in the tournament because it doesn't cost him a lot of chips that he's already invested.

Robbie

[Michael C.]

I don't understand why you would fold just because it's early in the tournament. You eventually need to get chips to make it to the top three, and to me this is a clearly advantageous call. If he beats you, say nice hand and enter another SNG. I think by far his most likely hand is an overpair. If he has 6-6 or a 5, that's just poker and you make a note as to how he plays.

[barrem23]

sorry, missunderstood

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
As for me I went out on a hand I am still kicking myself for.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I did not fold this, I called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most folks will assume from what you wrote, that you are kicking yourself for calling in this situation.

Adanthar merely said you are (1) results oriented or (2) weak tight. If you are kicking yourself for not folding here, I think he's right.

On a side note, quitting poker is not the answer either. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Keep posting hands, and thinking about hands you've played, and you're bound to improve.

But realize, some folks will post harsher responses than you think you deserve.

[AKarpov]

I wonder how anyone feels about my read on this.

He is a conservative player without too much experience dealt JJ or QQ. He isn't comfortable re-raising pre-flop so just calls.

He believes you have AK and is happy when no overcards come on the flop. He doesn't understand that pot odds (or implied odds) allow him to protect hand with a pot sized raise and thus goes allin. (He could also do this with 77 or 88, but my intuition is that he bets this way to avoid losing a pot with a premium hand.)

Alternative is that he is very inexperienced and goes allin with nuts when he should build a pot. I think first read is more likely.

[krabby5]

I would put him on 10-JJ...

I would call simply because I don't know who would make a play like that if they held trips or quads...

plus...if you double up like you should, you are much more likely to finish in money now that you have twice as many chips as everyone else...even if it is early

WHen I double up early or win a huge pot, I usually always get into the money...just because you can now pick your spots better

[esbesb]

99.99% chance you folded the best hand.

[esbesb]

1. The other player is not bluffing
2. Hero still has the best hand, by far.
3. The reason to call the all in is that it will double you up, vastly increasing your chances of winning the sng.

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
1. The other player is not bluffing
2. Hero still has the best hand, by far.
3. The reason to call the all in is that it will double you up, vastly increasing your chances of winning the sng.

[/ QUOTE ]

this early in the game the use of the word "vastly" might be a tad bit strong.

[esbesb]

OK, how about "almost double."

[Black Aces 518]

I don't understand people saying they want to wait for a more advantageous situation. I would say AT LEAST 90% of the time, he has a hand that is at best 10% to win against Hero (77-KK, maybe AK but I doubt it). So 90% of the time you're 90% to win, or 81% overall. If someone went all-in preflop, would you fold AA to wait for a better opp? You'd be about an 81% favorite.

[Al Mirpuri]

The tight player has anything from 55-KK in the hole. He pushed because no ace came up and he is a favorite against AK, AQ, AJ, ETC. You should have pushed it allin happily.

[Myst]

Worst....Fold....Ever.

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is where you have to give credit to the guy for a great play...

This is one of those hands that it is tough to call with an overpair. The only time that I think that I would call would be later in when the blinds are bigger. But, if your read on this guy is correct then its a fold if you believe him to play good hands.

On the other hand...

If he did have 66, 55, or a lone 5 why wouldn't he extract the most from the preflop raiser (you) because you know that you would have bet out on the flop.

So this really comes down to whether you think that you missed your one chance or whether you play well enough to be able to fold AA on the button. If you're only shot at winning is playing AA then there need to be some improvement to you game.

You should have raised more preflop if there were limpers. Like (2x#ofLimpers + 3xBB) or so that puts the guy on a possible stronger holding.

Also, Does he have you covered or do you have him covered?

If it makes you feel better...I would have folded also...But I'm about 50% sure that he didn't have anything, but I'd be ok with that because the pot is too small.

-Gryph

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, his play was anything but great.

Second, how you could even consider folding AA in this situation is beyond me. He has already been pegged as a conservative player. How many conservative players would call a raise with a 5 in his hand? THere is no way he had 55 or 66 because he wouldn't have pushed after the flop.

At the very best he has KK, but I put him on JJ as he probably thinks that is a perfect flop for him and wants to take it down before a A K or Q comes.

He is putting you on two over cards but not AA.

CALL!!!

Cheers,
Brad

[zaphod]

Quote 1:


[ QUOTE ]
I thought maybe he had 66, and this early in the tournament I decided to fold rather than be crippled if he had 66 or 55 or just a 5.


[/ QUOTE ]

Quote 2:
[ QUOTE ]
I had him covered in chips, but only by ~100.
Also later in the tournament he held to his TTP style as I had stolen his blind more than once with some aggressive bets, eventually he was blinded out of the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]


Quote 3:
[ QUOTE ]
I did not fold this, I called.

[/ QUOTE ]




I am a bit confused by your statments here..

Putting it all togehter might this be what happend?? You decided to fold, but did not, and called anyway. Both of you where still in the tournament(quote 2). Looks like he also had AA, and you split the pot.

Other than that i has to say that i agree with the rest that you have to call here.

[zaphod]

Or did you call, and lost and then managed to outlast him with only 100 chips?

[skoal2k4]

nt

[PrayingMantis]

The AA fold on the flop is terrible. For all who think it was actually good (i was amazed to see there were actually several posters who advocated folding!), well, I'd say you should probably re-examine some of your basic ideas about this game, especially if you're interested in maximizing profits and concepts like +EV plays and such.

[skoal2k4]

I agree... originally I replyed that I like the fold. After thinking about it a bit, I realized that this is just playing way too scared and stupid. Not gonna get very far into a tournament playing like that... believe me /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Robbie