Opening NE/IND Line [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

tech

01-09-2005, 10:54 PM

I tend to agree with Big Al on this one. The only scenario in which I *might* play this game would be if it gets to a point to where the Colts are slight favorites (which I can easily see happening based on public opinion right now). If it gets there and I can get better than even money on the Pats to win, I would consider the Pats.

craig r

01-09-2005, 11:07 PM

The O/U seems pretty high (51.5). It would seem a higher scoring game favors IND. I guess this line is based on NE's secondary injuries and the colts defense.

craig

CCx

01-09-2005, 11:39 PM

I agree, Big Al! Staying far away from this one, will be just as happy to watch this game on TV without a wager on it, as it'll be plenty good football... (I think the Colts are going to smoke them /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

ttleistdci

01-10-2005, 12:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, Big Al! Staying far away from this one, will be just as happy to watch this game on TV without a wager on it, as it'll be plenty good football... (I think the Colts are going to smoke them /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree (about staying away from the game and just watching it).
I actually snagged a couple standing room tix to the game. But, after adding up the pros and cons, decided to sell em and make a nice little profit.

The_Individual

01-10-2005, 11:59 AM

The_Individual

01-10-2005, 12:01 PM

ttleistdci

01-10-2005, 12:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The O/U seems pretty high (51.5). It would seem a higher scoring game favors IND. I guess this line is based on NE's secondary injuries and the colts defense.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree over/indy +2.5 is a good play if someone is going to take indy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that parlay if someone likes Indy. In order for them to win this game, they're gonna hafta play their type of high scoring football and put up some points.

CCx

01-10-2005, 12:15 PM

I think if you're going to parlay the game, you should go ahead and get yourself some more money by taking Indy on the moneyline with the over....what's the old addage: "dont take the points if you dont think the team has a chance to win the game" - indy has an excellent chance to win the game, by quite a few points - with the number this small, and seemingly having the chance to get smaller, moneyline+over could be the play

Loop Hole

01-12-2005, 03:43 AM

Bodog has Indy +3 o/u 52. colts defense not as bad as ranking indicates. Ranking based on yardage allowed.
Colts take more chances defensively because they are usually
2+ scores ahead. Colts forced 5 more turnovers, tied with 45 sacks ( colts have nfl sack leader ), 1 less Int. Colts could do better at stopping the run, but defense is getting better every game. early forcast says sunny, dry, mid 30's
If you must bet this game I say take colts and points ( but they won't need them ) Smart money stays away, better options elsewhere. H.C

WarDekar

01-12-2005, 04:49 AM

Unless you have almost NO juice on it, it certainly isn't. I don't have my database on me, but the 2 is worth almost nothing. Really, the only way this game can realistically land on 2 is if Indy scores a TD late when they're down 8, and fail on the 2-pt.

Indiana

01-12-2005, 10:26 AM

This is why I bet on the colts. the NE QB hasn't really played in a couple of weeks and will be rusty. A QB like Manning in his prime is likely to carry the team to the super. I have a parlay on the moneyline (+105) and the over (52) on sportsbook.com.

Indiana

kenberman

01-12-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Manning is a mature and focused QB

[/ QUOTE ]

He has also never won in Foxboro, and plays his worst against the Patriots.

[ QUOTE ]
the NE QB hasn't really played in a couple of weeks and will be rusty

[/ QUOTE ]

If are suggesting that the bye week was bad for Brady - or the team in general - this is laughable. This didn't seem to bother Brady the last two playoff bye weeks they had - they won both games and 2 Super Bowls.

[ QUOTE ]
A QB like Manning in his prime is likely to carry the team to the super

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif Do you mean a QB like Manning, or Manning? Marino never carried his team to a title, and Manning has yet to. I'm not sure what you mean by 'likely'.

Indiana

01-12-2005, 10:49 AM

Quote:He has also never won in Foxboro, and plays his worst against the Patriots.
Response: Did you see the first game of the season? They beat the colts by only 3. The colts defense has improved significantly this year since the first game. Also, Manning and the colts practically handed that AFC championship game to them last year when they beat us 21-13. Our offense has since then had significantly lower turnovers due to the maturation of Manning.

Quote: If are suggesting that the bye week was bad for Brady - or the team in general - this is laughable. This didn't seem to bother Brady the last two playoff bye weeks they had - they won both games and 2 Super Bowls.
Response: I understand your point. However, Manning had a rest the last game of the season and is by no means tired. Brady won't be tired, but he could be a little rusty compared to Manning who has had both rest and practice.

I see your point about Marino, but Marino wasn't even in Manning's league in my opinion.

Just my 2 cents,

Indiana P.S. Didn't you hear what our kicker said? They are beatable:)

kenberman

01-12-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you see the first game of the season? They beat the colts by only 3.

[/ QUOTE ]
A win is a win is a win. You're not going to convince me that the Colts are going to win this time b/c they came pretty close to winning last time.

Everybody talks about James 2 fumbles in that game, but hey, the Patriots had 2 turnovers as well. Vinatieri had to kick 2 field goals.

[ QUOTE ]
The colts defense has improved significantly this year since the first game.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Colts have a bad defense, especially on the road. BAD. Freeney can't use his speed rush. All those sacks/turnover stats are skewed b/c the Colts went up on so many teams that their opponents had to take chances and the Colts D could tee off.

[ QUOTE ]
Brady won't be tired, but he could be a little rusty compared to Manning who has had both rest and practice

[/ QUOTE ]

But this isn't Brady versus Manning! It's the Patriots vs the Colts. And I think that the Patriots very good offense will have an easier time scoring on the Colts bad defense than the Colts great offense will have scoring on the Patriots very good defense.

Loop Hole

01-12-2005, 01:18 PM

Colts defense very much improved since week one. Defensive ranking is based on yards allowed.The colts allowed only 60 more yards per game than NE. just as you said, Colts take more chances defensively because they usally have a big lead, allowing the occasional big play. Colts forced 5 more turnovers than NE, even with 45 sacks and 1 less INT. Colts defense may not be as good as NE, but they are not as bad as the average fan thinks. H.C.

kenberman

01-12-2005, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Colts defense very much improved since week one.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not buying it. The Colts just allowed 24, 33, and 31 points in their last 3 games.

Other "points allowed" this year are 31, 27, 45, 28, and 24. Their most 'impressive' stretch of the season is when they allowed 14, 10, and 9 points in consecutive games to the Texans, Bears, and Lions - 3 bad teams.

The Colts have never shown an ability to stop the Patriots, or any good offense. When they do, then I will buy that their defense is improved.

01-12-2005, 02:51 PM

Too add to your post, as Denver started to make somewhat of a game of it last week, the Colts' defense could not come up with a stop. Not only was Denver scoring, but they were doing it rather quickly. Instead, it was up to the offense to come back down the field and get the points back. The Colts' defense may be improved from Week 1, but it still stinks. In a matchup like this, I'll take the good defense over the bad defense every time. I'm all over NE here.

ttleistdci

01-12-2005, 03:07 PM

Agreed.

Look at some of the shootouts Indy got in throughout the course of the year. Their D line may be able to hold its own, but their secondary is nothing to write home about. Many quarterbacks have sliced and diced their secondary. The Green Bay game is a perfect example. A shootout for the ages, but one of the worst defensive games you'll ever see.

More times than not, Indy's offense is the only thing that kept them in games. If they didn't have one of the best in the game taking snaps, Tony Dungy & co. would be mulling over draft picks right now.

tolbiny

01-12-2005, 03:28 PM

"but Marino wasn't even in Manning's league in my opinion"

Credibililty ~ 0.

kenberman

01-12-2005, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"but Marino wasn't even in Manning's league in my opinion"

Credibililty ~ 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to respond to that comment as well, but couldn't think of any civilized way to do it. I was honestly speechless.

ttleistdci

01-12-2005, 04:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"but Marino wasn't even in Manning's league in my opinion"

Credibililty ~ 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to respond to that comment as well, but couldn't think of any civilized way to do it. I was honestly speechless.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's like saying Jordan isn't in LeBron James' league.

Just a stupid, ignorant thing to say.

Indiana

01-12-2005, 04:17 PM

What I meant is that Marino doesn't have the same type of arm that Manning has. Yes, Marino could release the ball fast, but could not throw as far. I think Marino was great, but Manning has a far superior control of the team and the ability to make bigger and longer plays....I would take Manning any day over Marino....And by the way, that statement about Lebron and Jordan makes no sense. Jordan is the best player ever, and such a comparison would not even be sensible. However, Marino is not the Jordan of football, he was certaintly not the greatest.

Indiana

kenberman

01-12-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Marino...could not throw as far

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even know what this means.

[ QUOTE ]
Manning has...the ability to make bigger and longer plays

[/ QUOTE ]

and what are you basing this statement on?

[ QUOTE ]
And by the way, that statement about Lebron and Jordan makes no sense

[/ QUOTE ]

The comparison may be a stretch, but the point is valid. You are taking someone who has had a few good years over someone who had a great career, and is arguably one of the Top 5 QB's of all time.

You should wait a few years before even attempting this comparison.

ttleistdci

01-12-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jordan is the best player ever, and such a comparison would not even be sensible.
Indiana

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my point. Thanks. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Marino is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever. Manning is one of the best in the league right now, but don't you think it's a little premature to be ranking him with Marino just yet?
For all we know, he could get traded a few years down the road to the Bills and be forced to play outside in freezing temps...that's something we haven't seen him face too much of. We might find out his style of play was only suited for a dome and his career could take a nosedive.

My point was not that Marino was the best of all time (which he may not be), but that it's crazy to compare someone who probably hasn't even hit the midway point in his career to a certain hall of famer and one of the best ever.

Let's wait until this Sunday to pass any further judgement. If he can put up the numbers that he did all year and do it against the Patriots, outside in Gillette, in 30 degree weather, AND walk out with a W, I'll change my tune. If not, then the Patriots will always be what the toss to first base was to Chuck Knoblauch...that hurdle he couldn't get past that eventually ruined his career.

Indiana

01-12-2005, 05:51 PM

Fair enough...let's see what happens this weekend and discuss next week...If i'm wrong, I'm wrong...
Indiana

Loop Hole

01-13-2005, 04:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Colts defense very much improved since week one.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not buying it. The Colts just allowed 24, 33, and 31 points in their last 3 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

24 - colts were 31 points ahead before denver scored 2nd
time
33 - game 16 colts played simple game plan with 2nd and 3rd
string.
colts win differential is 18 points. colts defense takes more chances ( which allows for occasional big play ) because they are usually 2 or 3 scores ahead.
Colts 2nd in nfl with 36 turnovers forced, 5 more than NE.
Colts 1 less INT than NE.
Colts & NE even with 45 sacks.
NE is clearly head and shoulders
above the lowly Colts. ( sarcasm )

kenberman

01-13-2005, 11:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
NE is clearly head and shoulders above the lowly Colts. ( sarcasm )

[/ QUOTE ]

Patriots allowed an average of 16 PPG this year. Colts allowed 22 PPG. This difference is not b/c "the colts had huge leads in every game, b/c the Patriots offense scored a lot as well:

Indy scored 32 PPG this year, and the Pats scored 27 PPG.

You can try to feel better about the Colts defense all you want, but the fact is that the next time the Colts stop a good offense will be the first.

BeantownCaller

01-13-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NE is clearly head and shoulders above the lowly Colts. ( sarcasm )

[/ QUOTE ]

Patriots allowed an average of 16 PPG this year. Colts allowed 22 PPG. This difference is not b/c "the colts had huge leads in every game, b/c the Patriots offense scored a lot as well:

Indy scored 32 PPG this year, and the Pats scored 27 PPG.

You can try to feel better about the Colts defense all you want, but the fact is that the next time the Colts stop a good offense will be the first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I liked that last line /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I've placed bets through people but I just set up a neteller acct so I might place my first online bet this weekend (YAY!)

I'm gonna bet the eagles and the pats. Even though it's a scary game for the pats with the line this low it's basically a pick'em AND I got free tickets on the 45 yard line, 30 rows up from the field (Don't ask how). So even if I lose $50 or $100 the pats losing will be much worse, but at least I'll have a patriots playoff game under my belt (in person /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

ttleistdci

01-13-2005, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
NE is clearly head and shoulders above the lowly Colts. ( sarcasm )

[/ QUOTE ]

Patriots allowed an average of 16 PPG this year. Colts allowed 22 PPG. This difference is not b/c "the colts had huge leads in every game, b/c the Patriots offense scored a lot as well:

Indy scored 32 PPG this year, and the Pats scored 27 PPG.

You can try to feel better about the Colts defense all you want, but the fact is that the next time the Colts stop a good offense will be the first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I liked that last line /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I've placed bets through people but I just set up a neteller acct so I might place my first online bet this weekend (YAY!)

I'm gonna bet the eagles and the pats. Even though it's a scary game for the pats with the line this low it's basically a pick'em AND I got free tickets on the 45 yard line, 30 rows up from the field (Don't ask how). So even if I lose $50 or $100 the pats losing will be much worse, but at least I'll have a patriots playoff game under my belt (in person /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[/ QUOTE ]

After the first game of the year, I made a promise to myself that I wouldn't bet the spread on anymore Pats' games. The line for the first Indy game was -4. The Pats only won by a field goal. It's a crappy feeling to be pissed off after watching your team win a close one.

Therefore, I'm staying as far away from this one as possible. Regardless of where or when the line moves...I won't touch it. It'll be much more enjoyable to watch it as a fan rather than worrying about them covering or the over/under.

Just my .02 though.

craig r

01-13-2005, 06:52 PM

I don't know how you got 4 on that first game. It was a middle all around. It could be had at 2.5 and 3.5. I remember that game, because everybody thought that the books took a bath on it, since it landed on 3.

craig

ttleistdci

01-13-2005, 06:58 PM

Not sure...that's what my bookie had. After they trounced Indy in the playoffs last year and they were playing in Foxboro, I thought 4 was safe.

Oh well...lesson learned. The Pats and Sox I will stay away from. I don't so much care for the Celtics, so I have no problem betting against them /images/graemlins/smile.gif

BeantownCaller

01-13-2005, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure...that's what my bookie had. After they trounced Indy in the playoffs last year and they were playing in Foxboro, I thought 4 was safe.

Oh well...lesson learned. The Pats and Sox I will stay away from. I don't so much care for the Celtics, so I have no problem betting against them /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention that betting against the celtics is generally a good bet regardless of the spread. I want my 'twan back.

ttleistdci

01-13-2005, 07:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure...that's what my bookie had. After they trounced Indy in the playoffs last year and they were playing in Foxboro, I thought 4 was safe.

Oh well...lesson learned. The Pats and Sox I will stay away from. I don't so much care for the Celtics, so I have no problem betting against them /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention that betting against the celtics is generally a good bet regardless of the spread. I want my 'twan back.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you really can't go wrong lately betting against the C's, huh?
Danny Ainge has absolutely ruined this team. One of the worst moves the organization ever made was putting him in the front office.
If it's possible to go from nearly winning the Eastern Conference Championship to rebuilding in one year, the Celts will find a way!

sublime

01-13-2005, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah you really can't go wrong lately betting against the C's, huh?
Danny Ainge has absolutely ruined this team. One of the worst moves the organization ever made was putting him in the front office.
If it's possible to go from nearly winning the Eastern Conference Championship to rebuilding in one year, the Celts will find a way!

[/ QUOTE ]

the celtics were never going to win the NBA championship with that team.

what exactly do you want? overnight success? he gutted the team and is rebuilding from the bottom (dont be surprised to see pierce gone also) is is 1/2 way thru year two of a rebuilding project and here you are saying such ridiculous things.

ttleistdci

01-13-2005, 10:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah you really can't go wrong lately betting against the C's, huh?
Danny Ainge has absolutely ruined this team. One of the worst moves the organization ever made was putting him in the front office.
If it's possible to go from nearly winning the Eastern Conference Championship to rebuilding in one year, the Celts will find a way!

[/ QUOTE ]

the celtics were never going to win the NBA championship with that team.

what exactly do you want? overnight success? he gutted the team and is rebuilding from the bottom (dont be surprised to see pierce gone also) is is 1/2 way thru year two of a rebuilding project and here you are saying such ridiculous things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think what you want, but the majority of the people I've heard talk about the situation have agreed with me...Danny Ainge was a horrible move. He should not be in the front office.

sublime

01-13-2005, 10:27 PM

Think what you want, but the majority of the people I've heard talk about the situation have agreed with me

who, uncle joe and cousin robbie?

this team has a bright future, i couldnt say the same thing two years ago.

kdog

01-13-2005, 10:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure...that's what my bookie had. After they trounced Indy in the playoffs last year and they were playing in Foxboro, I thought 4 was safe.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course he had it at 4. You are in Mass. Do you think the guy was expecting an abundance of Colts action?

There are two lessons to be learned here. First, you should be shopping online for the best lines for each game you are interested in. Second, you ONLY call a dinosaur when you want to bet AGAINST the home team, especially in a big game where thay are loaded with one way action. And if you want to bet enough, ask the guy for a deal. He may even lay you 11-10 to get rid of some of it.

ttleistdci

01-13-2005, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure...that's what my bookie had. After they trounced Indy in the playoffs last year and they were playing in Foxboro, I thought 4 was safe.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course he had it at 4. You are in Mass. Do you think the guy was expecting an abundance of Colts action?

There are two lessons to be learned here. First, you should be shopping online for the best lines for each game you are interested in. Second, you ONLY call a dinosaur when you want to bet AGAINST the home team, especially in a big game where thay are loaded with one way action. And if you want to bet enough, ask the guy for a deal. He may even lay you 11-10 to get rid of some of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I hear ya. This was before I had registered at sportsinteraction.com, so I didn't even know about any sports books online.

BeantownCaller

01-14-2005, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Think what you want, but the majority of the people I've heard talk about the situation have agreed with me

who, uncle joe and cousin robbie?

this team has a bright future, i couldnt say the same thing two years ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not one to talk because I hate watching the NBA in this day and age. There are no sports I'd rather watch from 10 years ago, forget about 40 years ago, besides professional basketball. I don't follow the celtics, I don't like the celtics, but at least 2 years ago they were competitive. Rebuilding or not getting to the playoffs is a plus. Once again, ask me about the front office moves of the sox or the pats and I'll have an informed opinion, but regarding Ainge I just don't like the guy and the moves he's made, co-workers and friends who actually follow the celtics and care about the team hated the move to trade Twan. That is all.

ttleistdci

01-16-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Let's wait until this Sunday to pass any further judgement. If he can put up the numbers that he did all year and do it against the Patriots, outside in Gillette, in 30 degree weather, AND walk out with a W, I'll change my tune. If not, then the Patriots will always be what the toss to first base was to Chuck Knoblauch...that hurdle he couldn't get past that eventually ruined his career.

[/ QUOTE ]

I rest my case!

Stick that in your pipe and smoke in, Manning!

ttleistdci

01-16-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough...let's see what happens this weekend and discuss next week...If i'm wrong, I'm wrong...
Indiana

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep...you're wrong /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

frank2752

01-16-2005, 11:45 PM

Thank you to all you Indy backers!!!

I got to wait until 10 minutes before kickoff and got PAts and a couple poiints on bodog. I called only hoping to get no points. Glad I waited that long. I was lovig all these people thinking the Colts should be favorite on the road. Hilarious. Thanks guys!!!

Now, the shoes on the other foot - Pats -3 on the road????? whats up there?