TomCollins
01-07-2005, 01:44 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong. I think I'm doing this correctly.
Suppose I have 70 tournaments (10 players) with 15 1sts, 5 2nds, and 13 3rds. The payouts on each of those is $195, $95, and $45. This means I also have 37 values of -$55.
So I take the S.D. of these 70 values and get $100.68
I take a 95% confidence interval on this, and get a range of +-23.58.
So this means I have a 95% chance of having a win rate between $4.27 and $51.44?
The only problem I think that could happen here is its based on a normal curve. Is that a fair assumption?
Suppose I have 70 tournaments (10 players) with 15 1sts, 5 2nds, and 13 3rds. The payouts on each of those is $195, $95, and $45. This means I also have 37 values of -$55.
So I take the S.D. of these 70 values and get $100.68
I take a 95% confidence interval on this, and get a range of +-23.58.
So this means I have a 95% chance of having a win rate between $4.27 and $51.44?
The only problem I think that could happen here is its based on a normal curve. Is that a fair assumption?