JJ, Party 3/6 hand -- maniacal turn play?

[SinCityGuy]

On the sixth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me, six tables beeping (clearing off a bonus on four of them).....

On one of the tighter tables, this hand came up:

Solid, tight/aggressive player open raises UTG, weak/tight MP cold calls, I 3-bet on the button with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, blinds fold, UTG caps, weak-tight player folds, I call.

Two to the flop for 11 SB’s.

Flop: A/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG bets, I call.

Two to the turn for 7.5 SB’s.

Turn: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG bets, I raise.

My plan is for him to fold. Failing that, I’ll fold to a 3-bet; otherwise check behind on the river unimproved.

Comments?

[Reef]

Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold. (6+12+4+12+4+4)=42 more combos of hands are likely to call your raise or reraise. Basically 2/3 of the time he won't fold.

I think this can be figured out mathematically if you have an idea of what he will and will not fold (AQ/AJ?).

[tolbiny]

I don't know. I don't see to many players folding to this raise with KK or QQ- it is a decently big pot, and tough to take dump without taking a shot at it.
Seems like you could just bail if his preflop capping standards are t/a like you say.
If i am UTG i am not folding KK or QQ- i probably fold the other JJ to give you half.

[SinCityGuy]

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I think this can be figured out mathematically if you have an idea of what he will and will not fold (AQ/AJ?).

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I'm pretty sure he doesn't have AQ or AJ.

[SinCityGuy]

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Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold.

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My profile on this T/A player is: out of position, capping against two opponents, his most likely holdings are AA, KK, QQ and AKs. With the ace on the flop, that leaves 3 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK, 6 combinations of QQ, and 3 combinations of AKs.

[Reef]

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Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold.

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My profile on this T/A player is: out of position, capping against two opponents, his most likely holdings are AA, KK, QQ and AKs. With the ace on the flop, that leaves 3 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK, 6 combinations of QQ, and 3 combinations of AKs.

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good call. I did not consider the cap. I really shouldn't do anything requiring thinking this late.

I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

[SinCityGuy]

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I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

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This guy is a good player, and he's seen me come over the top of his initial raise plus the cold-caller in between. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to have AKo or AQ, but most of these solid 3/6 Party players would not cap out of position with those hands.

[Reef]

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I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

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This guy is a good player, and he's seen me come over the top of his initial raise plus the cold-caller in between. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to have AKo or AQ, but most of these solid 3/6 Party players would not cap out of position with those hands.

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could he have capped to add dead $, since he knew weak-tight would call for 1 bet but fold for 2?

[SinCityGuy]

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could he have capped to add dead $, since he knew weak-tight would call for 1 bet but fold for 2?

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It's certainly possible.

I'm not saying that I played this hand well by any means. I rarely make moves like this, but I do occasionally. At any rate, I think that raising the turn here is a lot more powerful than raising the flop.

[Shillx]

I understand the concept here, but wouldn't a flop raise and turn bet be more likely to fold out KK/QQ? A good player should know that a turn raise isn't likely to be AK (why not wait until the river). I would probably just fold on this flop, but I can't argue with your intention here given the pot size.

Brad

[RubbleRobble]

You've done well narrowing down the hands that his PF raise indicates he could have.

A) You dont beat a single one of them.
B) For the same reason that you are trying to make a play at this pot--the size--I don't see why that wouldnt be reason enough for him to AT LEAST call you down with any of these hands.

I could easily be wrong, but it seems like yer only out here is to be catching him when he is waaaaay out of line... or of course rivering a J. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Thoughts on my thoughts?

[Tosh]

How about raising the flop instead. Given his cap preflop and flop bet he has shown you enough strength to expect you to not be raising without an ace.

[sfer]

The thing is, nothing is folding to a single raise on the flop.

[Cerril]

I've seen a lot of underpairs to the top card do exactly that on flops, but I suppose in the grand scheme it's still a tiny percentage. It happens just often enough that every time I do it with a legitimate hand I think to myself 'I should bluffraise more in this situation with underpairs'

[Tosh]

Thats not true if we are saying this guy can fold these hands and we automatically bet the turn and still saved 0.5BB.

[chio]

i often make plays like this myself, but i don't like your play here

raising for free showdown is a strong move that is predicated on 3 things:

(1) you might be ahead
i don't like your play here b/c you're basically 0% to be ahead given the action, board, and your description of TAG

(2) you have outs if you're called
you don't have many outs here if behind

(3) opponent might fold a better hand
i understand you believe this is strong enough to raise here. but your opponent knows that it's HU and that you have position, so KK/QQ might not fold. also, there's a good chance KK/QQ will at least call the turn to see if you bet the river, which you won't

[AceHigh]

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Comments?

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Why not just fold on the flop?

About the turn raise, won't utg figure a 3-bet preflop is more likely a pair than Ace something and call down with KK/QQ more often than not?

[SinCityGuy]

He folded to the turn raise.

I don't make plays like this very often, and I probably should quit making them altogether, as they probably don't show a profit in the long run. However, if the play is going to be made, raising the turn makes it a lot more believable than raising the flop.

[Tosh]

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However, if the play is going to be made, raising the turn makes it a lot more believable than raising the flop.

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No argument there, however, that does not make it a superior play.