Rediculous flaw in party software.... Or extremly prolonged bad luck?

[Jonny]

Hey guys,

Over the last few months, I have noticed that I barely EVER flop sets on party poker. So I went through poker tracker and found every time that I flopped a set, boat, or quads with a pocket pair. I wrote up a summary compared to paradise. My sample size is not great, but when I only flop 31 sets in 13,166 hands, something is wrong!

Party

True Stats
• Total Pocket Pairs: 720
• Set or better off flop: 31 of 720 PP
• Total Hands, sets: 31 of 13,166 total hands.

Projected Odds (Should be flopping a set or better with a PP)
• Total Pocket Pairs: 775
• 85 of 720 Sets or better
• 90 of 775 Sets or better

I should have flopped 90 sets in 13,166 hands.
I should have flopped 85 sets with the number of Pocket pairs I have received.

Bottom Line: I’m flopping 1/3 the amount of sets I’m supposed to.


Paradise

True Stats
• Total Pocket Pairs:1,516
• Set or better off flop: 162 of 1,516 PP
• Total Hands, sets: 162 of 25,858

Projected Odds
• Total Pocket Pairs: 1,520
• 177 of 1,516 sets or better
• 178 of 1,520 sets or better

I should have flopped 178 sets or better in 25,858 hands.
I should have flopped 177 sets with the number of Pocket pairs I have received.


Bottom Line: My actual odds are very close to projected on paradise.



Mabye this is why I'm winning 0.91(PT)BB/100 on party and 10(PT)BB/100 on paradise.....

Has anyone else experienced this?

[boondockst]

us discussing this is stupid b/c everyone knows the generators are random.....but i have played about 2,000 hands on a certain site and and i swear the only pp i ever had hit a set on the flop went like this:


6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (heads up)

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Turn: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

River: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

and the other guy had QQ

[Jonny]

yeah I know its random...

I guess my real question is this: How big of an effect does this have on my winrate. I feel that becuase of this, I am barely above even on party, as sets make up a majority of anyone's profit. Am I off on this?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Do sets really make up a majority of most people's profit? Personally, I have made most of my money on two pair. I make more ON AVERAGE from sets, but two pair occurs much more frequently, so . . .

[boondockst]

[ QUOTE ]
us discussing this is stupid b/c everyone knows the generators are random.....but i have played about 2,000 hands on a certain site and and i swear the only pp i ever had hit a set on the flop went like this:


6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (heads up)

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Turn: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

River: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

and the other guy had QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Like 10 minutes after i post that i get 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB. Pot is raised once and we're 3 handed to the flop.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

yeah so long story short i go all in and the other guy turns over 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

this kind of crap make anyone suspicious if you saw it all the time?

[Muisyle]

[ QUOTE ]
Do sets really make up a majority of most people's profit? Personally, I have made most of my money on two pair. I make more ON AVERAGE from sets, but two pair occurs much more frequently, so . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

in 20,000 hands of NL25 and 50 I'm +$1,730 with three of a kind and -$141.20 with two pair...

[Jonny]

I think that answers my question....

I'm only up about $800 with trips in 15K hands of NL100!!!

[Jonny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
us discussing this is stupid b/c everyone knows the generators are random.....but i have played about 2,000 hands on a certain site and and i swear the only pp i ever had hit a set on the flop went like this:


6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif (heads up)

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Turn: J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

River: 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

and the other guy had QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Like 10 minutes after i post that i get 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the BB. Pot is raised once and we're 3 handed to the flop.

Flop: 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

yeah so long story short i go all in and the other guy turns over 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

this kind of crap make anyone suspicious if you saw it all the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah

[TheWorstPlayer]

yes. where "all the time" = sample of 100K+ hands.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Guess I'm the lucky two pair maestro.

[SA125]

Interesting thread. Paradise sure would like it, but it's inconceivable that they'd plant a thread here. Right?

Anyway, all I know is this. There's really 3 main scenario's when you hit a set. You win big, lose big or win very small.

After 30,000 hands on Party NL and those 3 scenarios hitting sets, mine are -
Win big - 15%
Win small - 60%
Lose big - 25%.

Obvious point being, when your'e a 75% favorite to win a hand and win it 75% of the time, but the big losses outweigh the big wins, it's tough to be a big winner at NL.

Sets of small-mid pairs can in fact make up a large win percentage because they're hidden, as oppossed to flushes and boats. My small-mid sets don't make nearly as much against overpairs as I lose to. They're never in the pot. It's always an AK fold.

If it was 25% small pots and 50% big pots, the difference would be huge for me, as far as BB's.

[Jonny]

Also, the stacks are more shallow on party so you win less vs. an overpair when u flop a set.

[Wayfare]

They should take down your information and submit it to the bad beat police.

[SA125]

They won't take my calls. They're too busy keeping the bad palyers in play.