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Spladle Master
12-19-2004, 09:20 AM
Well, maybe not so simple, since I'm not sure how to figure it out on my own. This question is being spawned from an unfortunate multi-table tourney I participated in.

A certain player is dealt kings four times, twice at a six-handed table and twice at a full (ten-handed) table. What are the odds that aces will be out every time?
MortalWombatDotCom
12-19-2004, 06:16 PM
there was just a thread that would answer this. i don't feel like searching for it. i did the calculation "the hard way", and someone (almost undoubtedly gm) pointed out an easier way which is almost certainly inclusion/exclusion.

i think we all agreed that just using the chance of each player getting aces was close enough to correct to not worry about it since the chance of two people getting aces is so rediculously remote.

since two Ks are out, the chance of getting dealt two aces is 4/50 * 3/49 = .00489795918367346938

call that value a.

the chance of someone getting dealt AA against our hero all four times is approximately a^4 * 5 * 5 * 9 * 9 = .00000116542860715575


pretty unlikely.
Spladle Master
12-21-2004, 01:23 AM
I'm not sure if that makes me feel better or worse . . .

/images/graemlins/crazy.gif
elitegimp
12-21-2004, 05:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if that makes me feel better or worse . . .

/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

did you at least hit your set one of those 4 times?
Spladle Master
12-22-2004, 08:39 AM
The first time, yes.

AA: Raise to 2xBB
KK: Raise to 10xBB
AA: Raise to 20xBB
Me: "He has aces. I should fold."
KK: Raise to ~100xBB (all-in)

AA had me covered, but I flopped a king. The second time, I open-raised from the button and a small stack in the small blind came over the top and showed rockets. Third time was also against a short stack, so it didn't do to much damage. The last time (at the final table, six-handed), the only stack bigger than me open-raised from the button and I re-popped it from the big blind. Big stack moved all-in and I got a really sick feeling in the pit of my stomach but called anyway. No set this time, and I went out in sixth.

Oops. I think I just made a bad beat post . . . /images/graemlins/blush.gif