AKo check raised on the turn, am I supposed to fold this?

[mackthefork]

I think I am losing money calling this down, but I am not sure at all. SB has VPIP of around 40% (less than 100 hands) and has been fairly passive.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG+1 posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

Also how should this be played if my ace is a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, should I 3 bet the turn, or just call.

I see this sort of thing as a personal weakness, I feel I am beaten but I just can't press fold.

Thanks in advance for any comments.

Regards Mack

[DMBFan23]

I think you are beaten, but if he would do this with a K then you have to call it down.

what do people think about checking behind the turn here? we are giving a free card to a lone spade, but anything else is drawing mighty slim - the free card to a spade inclines me towards betting. I had a situation similar to this come up the other day (check raised on a 3 flush board HU on the turn with TPTK)

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
what do people think about checking behind the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about it and decided it was too weak, he check calls here if he thinks I have a flush right?

Regards Mack

[rabman]

I agree this action indicates that you are dominated and you will see the flush more often than not. I normally call this down as I've seen loose players make odd plays and there is a chance I am still ahead.

[DMBFan23]

if he's loose-passive, he check calls with a lot, so I want to bet. if he's aggressive, checking behind the turn avoids both the check-raise bluff and the check raise with a flush, and probably gets him to bluff the river.

opponent specific I guess.

[PokerBob]

I have the same weakness. It takes a pretty tricky villain to c/r bluff when the flush card hits, so he is probably is for real. That said, I'd look his ass up and make a note on what he had.

[PokerBob]

IMO checking behind on the turn here is a CRIME.

[DMBFan23]

is this true against any opponent? I think that giving the free card to a lone spade probably outweighs the benefits of inducing a bluff, but I wasnt sure if this applied universally.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
is this true against any opponent? I think that giving the free card to a lone spade probably outweighs the benefits of inducing a bluff, but I wasnt sure if this applied universally.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure, but when in doubt I try to be aggressive.

[GrunchCan]

Let's try to compute the EV of calling and folding.

The EV of folding is easy: it's just 0.

To compute the EV of calling, we need to evaluate effective odds. On the turn, the pot's laying 1:9 after villan's raise. But if you call the raise, you are committing to a showdown, which means you will have to call a bet on the river as well. So you'll have to pay 2 BB to win 10, and your effective odds are 2:10, or 1:5. Now the question becomes, is TPTK good at least 1 time in 6 in this spot? A passive calling station checkraised you on the turn when the flush came in. I'm about 95% certian he's not bluffing, meaning TPTK is good 1:19. This means you should fold.

But you also have a 4-out redraw to a FH (K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif). With one card to come, the FH will come in 1:10.5, or appx 1.75:19. So considering both the chances that your opponent is bluffing (1:19) and the chance that you'll suck out to beat him (1.75:19), you are going to win this pot about 3:19, or 1:6.3. Pot's only laying effective odds of 1:5, so calling has an EV of -1.3 BB. You should fold.

[witeknite]

Are there any implied odds here? Would SB fold to a river raise if a 3 or a K fell? If not the EV is -0.13 BB and is a whole lot closer. Plus there's the image consideration of folding to a turn c/r to help offset the small negative.

WiteKnite

[GrunchCan]

A K or 3 is going to fall only one time in 12 times, so you can't add 1.0 to the EV to account for the villan calling a river raise. You can only add 1/12, or about 0.08. The villan will probably call a river raise perhaps 75% of the time; possibly 90%. This cvhanges the EV adjustment factor from 0.08 to around 0.07. Therefore, the EV of calling the turn raise is -1.13 + 0.07 = -1.06, not -0.13. This is still deeply negative, and can't come close to any image considerations etc.

[mackthefork]

So people think its a turn fold, even if you have the ace of spades, i don't see how, you can profitably call the turn if you have the ace of spades and only call the river if a spade comes. Talk of calling the river regardless is silly in light of such analysis as is above surely?

Regards Mack

[witeknite]

Sorry. I forgot to adjust the implied odds with the chance to fill up. You are 100% correct that -1.06BB does not come close. I was still stuck on the -0.13 number. Thanks for pointing that out.

WiteKnite

[kiemo]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's try to compute the EV of calling and folding.

The EV of folding is easy: it's just 0.

To compute the EV of calling, we need to evaluate effective odds. On the turn, the pot's laying 1:9 after villan's raise. But if you call the raise, you are committing to a showdown, which means you will have to call a bet on the river as well. So you'll have to pay 2 BB to win 10, and your effective odds are 2:10, or 1:5. Now the question becomes, is TPTK good at least 1 time in 6 in this spot? A passive calling station checkraised you on the turn when the flush came in. I'm about 95% certian he's not bluffing, meaning TPTK is good 1:19. This means you should fold.

But you also have a 4-out redraw to a FH (K/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif). With one card to come, the FH will come in 1:10.5, or appx 1.75:19. So considering both the chances that your opponent is bluffing (1:19) and the chance that you'll suck out to beat him (1.75:19), you are going to win this pot about 3:19, or 1:6.3. Pot's only laying effective odds of 1:5, so calling has an EV of -1.3 BB. You should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is quite possibly the greatest analyzation of an action ever. Now can you do it in 20 seconds? (note: I certainly cant, hell its taken three rereads just to start understanding it)

[dr. klopek]

Fold the river at least. Paired/flushed/straighted board+turn c/r= no good. There are too many hands that he'll call a raise in the SB PF with to be comfortable. If you say this player is passive you already know the answer.

[Carmine]

I don't mean to sidetrack this thread but I think the answers to my question might help many a lost soul besides myself.
Where do some of the numbers mentioned in this response come from. If GC or someone else would kindly explain.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's try to compute the EV of calling and folding.

The EV of folding is easy: it's just 0.

To compute the EV of calling, we need to evaluate effective odds. On the turn, the pot's laying 1:9 after villan's raise. But if you call the raise, you are committing to a showdown, which means you will have to call a bet on the river as well. So you'll have to pay 2 BB to win 10, and your effective odds are 2:10, or 1:5. Now the question becomes, is TPTK good at least 1 time in 6 in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay simple enough. This is basic stuff so far.

[ QUOTE ]
A passive calling station checkraised you on the turn when the flush came in. I'm about 95% certian he's not bluffing, meaning TPTK is good 1:19.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you lost me. 1:19. Are you trying to say that hero is good 5 out of 100 times. But this would reduce down to 1:20 correct?? or am I not understanding what this 1:19 represents. Sorry if this is obvious. Not trying to nitpick. I just struggle with the math sometimes.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]

This is quite possibly the greatest analyzation of an action ever. Now can you do it in 20 seconds? (note: I certainly cant, hell its taken three rereads just to start understanding it)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats exactly what I was thinking. Now I don't feel so bad /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[GrunchCan]

1:19. Are you trying to say that hero is good 5 out of 100 times.

1:19 means you will win once and lose 19 times, for a total of 20 rolls of the dice.

On a totally other example, let's say you estimate your chances of having the best hand on the river at 25%. In fractions, this is 1/4. You win one time for every four tries. In other words, for every 4 tries, you'll lose 3 times and win once. Therefore, your odds are 1:3. (say, one-to-three). Does this make sense?

[GrunchCan]

can you do it in 20 seconds?

Um, no. But my biggest poker goal at the moment is to try to make all my decisions at the table so that my play is +EV. (duh!) In order to do this, I'm trying to get the best possible understanding of how to compute EV - which certianly isn't easy in real situations! So I'm using posts here as practice, and I'm hoping that my table play will improve becasue of it. It's already interesting to find that in many cases my knee-jerk play isn't +EV when I actually sit down and compute EV.

I guess another way to say that last bit is "I suck at poker, but I'm learning how to be better!"

[KingOtter]

And now you've answered the question in another thread concerning, 'Why do announcers on TV seem to make a big deal about players being math whizzes?', lol.

Great post! I haven't even started considering EV yet. I'm still way back at pre-flop (I thought I had good pre-flop play, but studing SSHE again revealed I had a lot to learn), and outs / pot-odds.

KO

[GrunchCan]

Yea, most modern poker pros who are very successful have a deep strain of geeky brainiac in them. Have you ever noticed this?