QQ against a "very selective" raiser

[cold_cash]

Party 2/4 - 10 handed

I'm UTG and raise w/ QQ.

It gets folded over to the button, who 3-bets. I've got a couple hundred hands with this guy, and he's too loose before the flop (30%ish), but very, very selective with his raises (3%ish).

Blinds fold, so we're heads up.

I'm guessing this raise is one of two hands, and I'm not thrilled about either one of them, so I call.

The flop comes down a 7 high rainbow. I check and the button instantly bets. I make up my mind I'm going to check and call the flop and turn, and bet the river unless an Ace or King comes off.

What do you think?

[phy1234]

if an ace or king does come off are you check folding the turn/river?

[cold_cash]

I don't think he would raise before the flop, (and especially 3-bet), with a hand that didn't include at least one Ace or King.

So yeah, I could check and fold if one came off and not lose any sleep over it.

[phy1234]

If you don't think he will be raising with AQ or AJs then I think your line is fine. I would be inclined to lead out on the turn if an A/K does not show. That is just me though

[The Dude]

On a flop with no runner runner draws, I'm not opposed to check-folding against this kind of opponent. If you had fewer hands against him, you couldn't do it, and if you had more you could feel more confident doing it. Nonetheless, folding is fine if in 250 hands he's raised preflop 7 times. He's just not going to be 3-betting with very much.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
On a flop with no runner runner draws, I'm not opposed to check-folding against this kind of opponent. If you had fewer hands against him, you couldn't do it, and if you had more you could feel more confident doing it. Nonetheless, folding is fine if in 250 hands he's raised preflop 7 times. He's just not going to be 3-betting with very much.

[/ QUOTE ]

i had a 150 hand session recently where i played exactly 4 hands and limped each time.

i don't know the math behind it, but how many hands does it take to get an accurate range of an opponent's vpip/pfr ?

[The Dude]

A lot more than 250.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot more than 250.

[/ QUOTE ]

that said don't you think its a bit presumptious to just checkfold the flop?

[The Dude]

perhaps. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Fat Nicky]

I'm less inclined to slow down this fast. I'd check-call the flop, and check-raise the turn if and A or K doesn't fall. I think you're becoming too passive with this hand too early, even with the stats you have on him, as JJ is a good possibility as one of his holdings.

Another option would be to cap pre-flop and lead the flop, If you get raised, call down.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
On a flop with no runner runner draws, I'm not opposed to check-folding against this kind of opponent. If you had fewer hands against him, you couldn't do it, and if you had more you could feel more confident doing it. Nonetheless, folding is fine if in 250 hands he's raised preflop 7 times. He's just not going to be 3-betting with very much.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much exactly what I thought. I figured his 3-betting standards meant at the very least AK, so I had him narrowed to AA, KK or AK. (Maybe that's too small a range of hands, I'm not sure.) So unless I screwed it up the way I played it kept a better hand from raising and a worse hand from folding, no?

[cold_cash]

What do you think the best approach here would be, Chris?

[cold_cash]

I don't want him to fold any of the hands I'm beating, though.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want him to fold any of the hands I'm beating, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only hand he will fold to a turn raise is AK, which isn't so bad as the pot is pretty big at this point and you don't mind winning it now. He will call down w/JJ & TT.

[runa]

I like your original line of call call bet/call with no overcards.

[profpeebody]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want him to fold any of the hands I'm beating, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you don't want to be the guy holding on to the hand that he's beating.

If he has an inferior hand, make him pay. Show aggression and if he plays back you can put him on a better hand.

I like capping the pre-flop and leading out on the flop. It will only cost you one more small bet, but I think you'll get a lot more information based on his move.

[ErrantNight]

i think against an opponent you can narrow down (or believe you can) to AA, KK, or AK, i'm not opposed to the way ahead/way behind line. as CDC pointed out, it's possible you've merely got a statistical abberation with someone who's not REALLY that tight with his preflop raises... but maybe you're right. either way, I don't think you can fold this without an A or K on board, and if you're confident enough in your read that a cap/lead is only liable to drive him out those times he DOES have AK, call, check/call, check/call, bet is fine, IMO.

[The Dude]

I'm a little disappointed in you guys. I was kind of hoping to get harped on more for proposing a check-fold, since I think it's a sizable mistake.

It's better to bet and 3-bet the flop. If he caps you again on the flop, you can check-fold a non Q turn. If there were a broadway undercard or a flush draw I would be much less inclined to take this line, because it's now possible that villian will cap the flop w/ something like AJs TPTK or the nut flush draw. But since the flop is lowball (not containing a gutshot for A high hands), the only thing villian can be capping is an overpair. You want your opponent to fold AK on the turn or pay dearly to catch, so check-calling down w/ QQ isn't so good. Plus, since the flop is so draw-less you find out cheaper when you're behind since you're only paying 2 BBs on the flop.

After the line you took, I don't like betting out on the river. He's as likely to bet AK as he is to call your bet with it, and he'll raise AA and KK, which I'm assuming you were planning on calling.

Once you have 2k hands with someone and they only raise 3% preflop, then you can check-fold this flop.

[runa]

I don't like folding the turn to a cap. I can see JJ or TT 3-betting PF and playing back just as strongly. If you suspect you're up against another pocket pair there's no good way to tell if you're ahead or behind which is why I prefer getting to showdown.

I don't mind betting and maybe SNG a blank turn card as a moderate path against both AK or another PP but I don't like folding so quickly either. I do agree with making AK pay something to get to the turn, and being out of position betting the flop does this, but I don't want to get blown off the best hand here either.

I have seen overcards overplay when faced with a double-check, so it seems like that would be best for inducing a bluff, but I think I agree that letting AK see free cards would be bad.